Arsenal game 17th June.

[Boris Becker’s Backhand]

Boris Becker Bollocks, absolute nonsense

Refer you to the answer I gave your pal. Have you anything sensible to contribute or just juvenile prattle like him ?

 

[SWP's back]

Jesus, can you not read or is it just that you can’t understand what you read ?

I didn’t say fans made no difference but that they only made a small difference. As I tried to explain other factors come into play.

Here are some stats, try to read them slowly and carefully....

45% of games were won by the home team in the last ten PL seasons including this one.

If we take out those games where the home team started at a price of 1.50 or less on the markets ie their chance of winning is rated at 66% or better then the percentage of home wins in the remaining fixtures is 29%

So we see a home win in only 29% of games where the market does not consider the home team to be a significantly better side than the away team

If it makes you happy you can keep on thinking your little simplistic fairytale thoughts that you’re a decisive factor in the outcome of a sporting contest between two highly focused meticulously prepared professional teams but the stats tell a different story

1) A home win would be a 33% chance, you’ve just stated 45% a home win is the result. Thus proving my point, cheers.


2) There a reason that bookies bring in odds on the home teams, it’s that they’re more likely to win (due to home advantage ie home fans) you mouth breather and therefore that factor is already priced in to the odds. I stopped reading there as you’re really not worth the time.

 

[SWP's back]

Zzzzzzzz

The stock retort of every dimwit who disagrees with someone else on here but can’t articulate their thoughts into a reasoned post ...... derrrr he’s a rag ........ derrrr he’s a dipper.

You’re only embarrassing yourself by making such comments

The other place doesn’t refer to rag cafe or rawk or any other team’s forum.

Tick tock child.

 

[Boris Becker’s Backhand]

1) A home win would be a 33% chance, you’ve just stated 45% a home win is the result. Thus proving my point, cheers.


2) There a reason that bookies bring in odds on the home teams, it’s that they’re more likely to win (due to home advantage ie home fans) you mouth breather and therefore that factor is already priced in to the odds. I stopped reading there as you’re really not worth the time.

Man you’re slow

45% of fixtures in the last 10 years were won by the home team.

Where do you get 33% from ?

 

[Boris Becker’s Backhand]

The other place doesn’t refer to rag cafe or rawk or any other team’s forum.

Tick tock child.

What does it refer to ?

 

[SWP's back]

Man you’re slow

45% of fixtures in the last 10 years were won by the home team.

Where do you get 33% from ?

Figure it out yourself if you’re so smart Mr Dunning Kruger.

Also, give your citation/source for the 45% figure and tell the group what % was won by the away side and what % were drawn.

(to help you out on the first point, there are three possible results, home win, draw, away win). Work out 1 divided by 3.

 

[Blu3m00n91]

Can't wait for all the really funny 'emptihad' tweets and pictures of our empty stands and saying how its no different ha ha ha ha ha

 

[Boris Becker’s Backhand]

Figure it out yourself if you’re so smart Mr Dunning Kruger.

Also, give your citation/source for the 45% figure and tell the group what % was won by the away side and what % were drawn.

(to help you out on the first point, there are three possible results, home win, draw, away win). Work out 1 divided by 3.

Any stats website like soccerway or futbol24 give results going back years and years from which you can work out the percentages.

With regards to the 33% ... Jesus are you serious ? Unlike you I don’t just toss insults around for fun, I’ve criticised your simplistic comments because they are just that, you look at a situation without nuance (remember) or distinction. The chance is 33% only if there are no variables in the same way that a coin toss is a genuine 50 50 over a large enough sample size. Football matches have many variables therefore the chance of one outcome occurring is not 33% as a rule

If you’re winding me up, hats off to you, this must be playing out as comedy gold to those in the know. But your vitriol is such that I think you’re being serious, bless you.

 

[SWP's back]

Any stats website like soccerway or futbol24 give results going back years and years from which you can work out the percentages.

With regards to the 33% ... Jesus are you serious ? Unlike you I don’t just toss insults around for fun, I’ve criticised your simplistic comments because they are just that, you look at a situation without nuance (remember) or distinction. The chance is 33% only if there are no variables in the same way that a coin toss is a genuine 50 50 over a large enough sample size. Football matches have many variables therefore the chance of one outcome occurring is not 33% as a rule

If you’re winding me up, hats off to you, this must be playing out as comedy gold to those in the know. But your vitriol is such that I think you’re being serious, bless you.

So what’s the % of draws and away wins?

What’s your source for the 45% home PL win over the last ten years. Let’s have the link so we can check. You gave the % so it’s on you to back it up.

 

[Boris Becker’s Backhand]

So what’s the % of draws and away wins?

What’s your source for the 45% home PL win over the last ten years. Let’s have the link so we can check. You gave the % so it’s on you to back it up.

Just to be clear you’re disputing it ?

 

[SWP's back]

Just to be clear you’re disputing it ?

I’m asking for all three and the source so I can look for myself.

(no reason to dispute it per se as it backs up my argument)

 

[colinthewindowcleaner]

Can't wait for all the really funny 'emptihad' tweets and pictures of our empty stands and saying how its no different ha ha ha ha ha

Hehe, we will be able to say it back as they’ll all be empty..snigger

 

[Boris Becker’s Backhand]

I’m asking for all three and the source so I can look for myself.

(no reason to dispute it per se as it backs up my argument)

45% is a ballpark figure off the top of my head but I’m in that game and I’d be surprised were it more than a couple of points out either way

 

[Boris Becker’s Backhand]

Frankly I’ve nout better to do right now so I’ll indulge you and find a site that aggregates the stats

 

[Fordyboy46]

How up for these remaining games do you think our players will be?. Going to be interesting to see how it pans out.

 

[SWP's back]

Frankly I’ve nout better to do right now so I’ll indulge you and find a site that aggregates the stats

Found it myself:

How many homes have won the Premier League?
On average, Premier League teams consistently win around 46.2% of home games, while the draw occurs around 27.52% of the time and the away team are victorious in 26.32% of games.

https://help.smarkets.com/hc/en-gb/...-consider-home-advantage-for-football-trading

So given that every team plays every other team home and away, the above is a stark reminder that a home team has almost twice as much chance of winning a game than an away team, statistically.

You really belive that has nothing to do with the fans and everything to do with familiar surroundings? The German league (5 home wins from 27 games) says not, albeit it's a small size. We will know much more once the results are in for Germany, England and Spain at the end of July.

 

[chesterbells]

Can't wait for all the really funny 'emptihad' tweets and pictures of our empty stands and saying how its no different ha ha ha ha ha

Andy Dunn likes this.

 

[stevemacca]

Found it myself:

How many homes have won the Premier League?
On average, Premier League teams consistently win around 46.2% of home games, while the draw occurs around 27.52% of the time and the away team are victorious in 26.32% of games.

https://help.smarkets.com/hc/en-gb/...-consider-home-advantage-for-football-trading

So given that every team plays every other team home and away, the above is a stark reminder that a home team has almost twice as much chance of winning a game than an away team, statistically.

You really belive that has nothing to do with the fans and everything to do with familiar surroundings? The German league (5 home wins from 27 games) says not, albeit it's a small size. We will know much more once the results are in for Germany, England and Spain at the end of July.

Ask Vinny - he did a thesis on this very subject for his MBA, getting views from prominent players the world over

 

[SWP's back]

Ask Vinny - he did a thesis on this very subject for his MBA, getting views from prominent players the world over

What were his findings out of interest?

 

[Boris Becker’s Backhand]

Found it myself:

How many homes have won the Premier League?
On average, Premier League teams consistently win around 46.2% of home games, while the draw occurs around 27.52% of the time and the away team are victorious in 26.32% of games.

https://help.smarkets.com/hc/en-gb/...-consider-home-advantage-for-football-trading

So given that every team plays every other team home and away, the above is a stark reminder that a home team has almost twice as much chance of winning a game than an away team, statistically.

You really belive that has nothing to do with the fans and everything to do with familiar surroundings? The German league (5 home wins from 27 games) says not, albeit it's a small size. We will know much more once the results are in for Germany, England and Spain at the end of July.

Once again you aren’t looking deeply enough into it. Even if fans were the overwhelming reason for home advantage, which they aren’t, a headline figure of a 46% win ration is hardly overwhelming proof of the power of playing at home. But once you factor in my earlier point that when teams are relatively evenly matched the win ratio for home teams drops to 29% then the unimportance of fans in influencing the outcome becomes even more apparent.