It's Quiet thread 14 - 'do one' edition

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21silva said:
So they blindly work and just go with where the money is moving? As I say that would influence it a bit, I’m not having that’s the case here. It all looks very negative hence our odds improving....
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I imagine the very big bookies have researchers, contacts in some areas and expensive software that assesses betting patterns etc. However, they are unlikely to have any sort of inside track on this matter. They're just reading the runes but in a more sophisticated way. Whether they are a good predictor of the actual outcome is another matter.
 
pavelsrnicek said:
Absolutely right. They are small markets as bookies don’t like taking big bets where some punters have insider knowledge.
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I'll go in my local William Hill after work and say...."I wanna lob £10k on Messi coming to City for the start of the coming season.....what odds will you give me"?
I'll let you know what they say.......not a piss take btw.....will genuinely do it.
 
tolmie's hairdoo said:
People just need to chill.

Messi and his dad are pushing this as far as they possibly can and the City exec are right with them. They are not trying to leg us over in any way.
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Not sure what they are pushing to be honest. He obviously doesn't have an exit clause as we all supposed. Maybe it did say June 10th. Barto says see you in court. Messi doesn't want that which mesns he is still under contract
The rumour that the release clause is now invalid would help us but Barto doesn't have to sell if he doesn't want to albeit keeping a very unhappy player at great expense is not sensible.
The other alternative is Barca offer some sort of package that ties him to the club ad infinitum. But this doesn't help his desire to play out his career in a competitive team.

Looking at it logically Jorge might be saying 'have it your way, but Leo's leaving in at the end of 21 for free'. Ball in Barto's court.
 
blueparrot said:
That's exactly how odds work, they follow the money the likelihood of something happening has no relevance to the odds except peoples betting changes with the headlines.
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Whilst the odds follow the money the relevance of something happening is related to the odds using the wisdom of the crowd, admittedly this probably doesn't work for transfers etc but for football matches etc the exchange odds are related to the chance of the outcome happening.

Anyway, back to Messi...
 
SPIDERBOY said:
I'll go in my local William Hill after work and say...."I wanna lob £10k on Messi coming to City for the start of the coming season.....what odds will you give me"?
I'll let you know what they say.......not a piss take btw.....will genuinely do it.
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They will ring head office and if they take the bet, they will immediately change the odds to protect themselves, its how it works.
 
peace frog said:
no your an angler, the fish isn't caught until its on the bank :)
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I could quite easily cast a juicy bait in this pond and have a couple of dozen flappers on the bank in no time. I do now and again and hook a few that haven't been caught before. But most wily old fish on here shed my hook and probably think I'm a bit of a dick; )
 
OB1 said:
I imagine the very big bookies have researchers, contacts in some areas and expensive software that assesses betting patterns etc. However, they are unlikely to have any sort of inside track on this matter. They're just reading the runes but in a more sophisticated way. Whether they are a good predictor of the actual outcome is another matter.
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That is my take on it. My main point was how la Liga came out this week about his buyout must be met which is extremely negative yet his odds didn’t drift. They then drifted after this meeting and no positive update. That’s what worried me, I’m hoping it has no indication to it at all
 
21silva said:
So they blindly work and just go with where the money is moving? As I say that would influence it a bit, I’m not having that’s the case here. It all looks very negative hence our odds improving....
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An odds-compiler will set the opening prices, and they normally have a specialism in the subject they are working on. Once the market goes live it's subject to market forces and will move with the money being placed. If some important new piece of information became available and it was likely to cause an absolute surge in betting activity then the bookie will supsend the betting, re-evaluate and re-post the market.
 
SPIDERBOY said:
I'll go in my local William Hill after work and say...."I wanna lob £10k on Messi coming to City for the start of the coming season.....what odds will you give me"?
I'll let you know what they say.......not a piss take btw.....will genuinely do it.
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They probably won’t take it. For all they know you may well have shown Mrs. Messi around her new house or drove his agent to the Etihad or work at the law firm that drew up his contract.
 
OB1 said:
I imagine the very big bookies have researchers, contacts in some areas and expensive software that assesses betting patterns etc. However, they are unlikely to have any sort of inside track on this matter. They're just reading the runes but in a more sophisticated way. Whether they are a good predictor of the actual outcome is another matter.
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Tolmie said they were sending him PMs on here
 
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