that’s exactly how it works lol.... if you ever look at 2 teams winning for example in 2 scenarios. Like NBA. There are only 2 outcomes if the odds are “even” they don’t offer both teams at $2 they offer both teams around $1.80. Essentially guaranteeing them 20 cents on either side. They shift these odds depending where the money gets placed so ensure they’re always in profit
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It's Quiet thread 14 - 'do one' edition
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that’s exactly how it works lol.... if you ever look at 2 teams winning for example in 2 scenarios. Like NBA. There are only 2 outcomes if the odds are “even” they don’t offer both teams at $2 they offer both teams around $1.80. Essentially guaranteeing them 20 cents on either side. They shift these odds depending where the money gets placed so ensure they’re always in profit
Neville Kneville
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Yeah this. I don't doubt they've tried. Might just decide its not worth a legal battle.
If I was Messi & decided I couldn't find any way out, I'd just retire rather than go through the motions.
According to El Presidente, he could leave if he doesn't play for a season. I'd do that, then play in Argentina.
Imo if Messi was to stay it would be because he is ok doing so, otherwise he's either off, or likes money more than football.
blueparrot
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That's exactly how odds work, they follow the money the likelihood of something happening has no relevance to the odds except peoples betting changes with the headlines.So they blindly work and just go with where the money is moving? As I say that would influence it a bit, I’m not having that’s the case here. It all looks very negative hence our odds improving....
pavelsrnicek
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Yeah this. I don't doubt they've tried. Might just decide its not worth a legal battle.
That’s ultimately what will decide, whether he stays or leaves. Will he decide he wants out no matter what or just decide, not worth the battle now and take a massive signing on fee next summer. Still think it depends on whether this move is for footballing rather than financial reasons.
I put a ton on him staying at Barca last night, so it was probably me that affected the markets ;)I think there was some research on transfer odds not long ago and it was exposed that it actually takes very little money to swing those odds.
kippaxwarrior
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Bookies do get info. They don't just put odds up in any old order!!!
Bookies change their odds due to betting patterns
People just need to chill.
Messi and his dad are pushing this as far as they possibly can and the City exec are right with them. They are not trying to leg us over in any way.
Even if they are trying to leg us over people still need to chill. It's just a football transfer.
So they blindly work and just go with where the money is moving? As I say that would influence it a bit, I’m not having that’s the case here. It all looks very negative hence our odds improving....
That's right mate, they never lose. It's just maths on their side, that's how their business works. Odds are a reflection of punter sentiment. Ask yourself why several British bookies would have an inside line on a Spanish transfer.
The1nvisibleMan
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Messi should just drop a statement and clear the air. I also wonder about timing because surely our lot want him asap to join the rest of the team
That's exactly how odds work, they follow the money the likelihood of something happening has no relevance to the odds except peoples betting changes with the headlines.
My £20 on him coming to us just placed hopefully brings it back down then.....
If I was Messi & decided I couldn't find any way out, I'd just retire rather than go through the motions.
According to El Presidente, he could leave if he doesn't play for a season. I'd do that, then play in Argentina.
Imo if Messi was to stay it would be because he is ok doing so, otherwise he's either off, or likes money more than football.
Messi however isn't you! ha.
pavelsrnicek
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I think there was some research on transfer odds not long ago and it was exposed that it actually takes very little money to swing those odds.
Absolutely right. They are small markets as bookies don’t like taking big bets where some punters have insider knowledge.
Sir peace frog
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no your an angler, the fish isn't caught until its on the bank :)I like to wait till a player gets officially unveiled at a press conference before I can take it all in. Perhaps I'm old skool with too many memories and disappointments of yesteryears.
City Raider
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Your move Barca.
Which could be that he needs to sign an extension to protect themselves
Which could be that he needs to sign an extension to protect themselves
If I was Messi & decided I couldn't find any way out, I'd just retire rather than go through the motions.
According to El Presidente, he could leave if he doesn't play for a season. I'd do that, then play in Argentina.
Imo if Messi was to stay it would be because he is ok doing so, otherwise he's either off, or likes money more than football.
Would not be surprising if that threat was yet to be played before this is all over.
There is no guarantee we would wait 12 months, as good a player he is we should be moving on if the deal can't be done this time around.I can understand people on here not chilling out though. We have been here before Kaka,jorginho sanchez etc etc, where the information was kindly given but never came to fruition, ITK's are great and appreciated but nothing is ever concrete, I've been around this forum way to many years to take any information as 100%. Let's hope Messi is arriving but don't be surprised if its next season not this..
On Betfair u would get evens the pair........wouldn't pay attention too bookie odds they will just be undercutting the exchange odds....that’s exactly how it works lol.... if you ever look at 2 teams winning for example in 2 scenarios. Like NBA. There are only 2 outcomes if the odds are “even” they don’t offer both teams at $2 they offer both teams around $1.80. Essentially guaranteeing them 20 cents on either side. They shift these odds depending where the money gets placed so ensure they’re always in profit
Betfair exchange is a good indicator but as has been said the transfer markets are very thin and won't take a huge amount too shift the odds
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