COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Ive been out and about. At 11 my phone showed 'BBC BREAKING NEWS. MANCHESTER IN TIER 3'. And yet I cant see anything to say thats the case?
 
We need a circuit breaker as that will trigger the financial help, all this fiddling leaves people worse off and doesnt sort out the problems , people travel which is one reason why local measures wont work , public also need clear rules , a circuit breaker will be clear
 
Healdplace said:
As for GM numbers rising fast. Are they?

The last 9 days total cases from GM have been:

1888, 1542, 1845, 941, 1455, 1533, 1445, 1521, 1415.

Whatever else these numbers are they are not really rising let alone rising fast.
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i think it is a bit more useful to quote the numbers by date of case rather than date of reported (avoids 'catch up' spikes etc)

Greater Manchester, 10 areas, up to 10th October (remove 3 days of data):



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places appear to be going in a good direction
 
artfuldodger said:
Ive been out and about. At 11 my phone showed 'BBC BREAKING NEWS. MANCHESTER IN TIER 3'. And yet I cant see anything to say thats the case?
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Decision on Manchester tier change 'not looking likely today'

All lined up for a press statement from GM leaders at 11am in central Manchester. But it was postponed as discussions with govt go on about putting GM/Lancs into Tier 3. Talks going on & GM leaders waiting for another call with No 10. Decision today not looking likely now... https://t.co/O4oDBztxcm
— Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) October 15, 2020
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Healdplace said:
Test and trace only found 62% of those being sought last week. When are they going to sort out the single most important thing to control this virus - seven months after realising this was true?

It has been obvious for months this should be in local hands who know the area they are tracking and tracing and can GO there not send a text.

Yet we are still using people on government contracts looking for contacts by phone hundreds of miles away.

Not rocket science why it is failing.
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It's going to require a monumental effort to fix test and trace at this point, the virus is too prevalent across the country now - the amount of resource required to trace 20k cases each day is surely enormous.

Test and trace should have been an effective strategy to maintain the lower case numbers we had over summer as we move into winter, its complete failure (based on the % of successful contacts traced, not even considering the cost of it) is part of the reason we are where we are now and are now looking at using more blunt tools such as lockdowns again (even if they are being give fancy names such as circuit breakers this time).
 
Guys, why can't we all just try to get along, certainly in these times and in this thread?

I'm telling my kids every day that everything will be alright in the end, it has to be.

We're all losing jobs and businesses, we're losing our health, we're losing a lot more come the light at the end of this dark tunnel...

But let's not lose hope or rationale, nor the ability to debate with civility, certainly towards people we have no clue how they may be coping in their own ways.

We aren't calling the shots, but when I leave this thread each day, it's in the firm belief I can look my two in the eye when they come home from school. I might have had a shit day, I might be on my arse financially, but we can't let this fucking thing beat us or become a self-fulfilling prophesy that we are all fucked.

Dzeko has headed us level and we would do well now to remember that you can never stop believing there is always another chance.
 
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Healdplace said:
As for GM numbers rising fast. Are they?

The last 9 days total cases from GM have been:

1888, 1542, 1845, 941, 1455, 1533, 1445, 1521, 1415.

Whatever else these numbers are they are not really rising let alone rising fast.
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Is this not the reason why Burnham, et al, are arguing why we shouldn’t be put in tier 3 - that the numbers have peaked and may well be on their way back down?
 
tolmie's hairdoo said:
Guys, why can't we all just try to get along, certainly in these times and in this thread?

I'm telling my kids every day that everything will be alright in the end, it has to be.

We're all losing jobs and businesses, we're losing our health, we're losing a lot more come the light at the end of this dark tunnel...

But let's not lose hope or rationale, nor the ability to debate with civility, certainly towards people we have no clue how they may be coping in their own ways.

We aren't calling the shots, but when I leave this thread each day, it's in the firm belief I can look my two in the eye when they come home from school. I might have had a shit day, I might be on my arse financially, but we can't let this fucking thing beat us or become a self-fulfilling prophesy that we are all fucked.

Dzeko has headed us level and we would do well now to remember that you can never stop believing there is always another chance.
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What i needed to hear. Ta
 
Shemnel - I do understand the difference this makes to the data and do often look at it. And did post a list of the comparisons on here a few weeks back to show how they impacted the 'record' for dfferet GM tiwns. They were all over estimated by way of the daily numbers posted v the actual numbers assigned to the date of testing in your graph.

So yes the true numbers daily are actually often lower than the totals I post because cases get eliminated as well as redistributed.

But as you say it takes several days before the numbers to mean anything. Ad cases get added even 4 or 5 days on. This is why the Pop score I show based on the daily published numbers is slightly different from the ones used to create the table of watch areas based on these numbers and why that list is always running days behind. As it has to be to use the actual day of test data.

Though the two are fairly closely aligned in terms of placement on the list and rarely more than a few digits out in the Pop number.

I give the daily reported cases here each evening as these are the only ones you can use to compare with the numbers announced daily for regions and the UK as a whole as that number is created from the raw daily numbers published. So its the only way to have a figure of the day and also that shows how GM compares with the wider NW and with the reported daily cases for England and the UK .

This is the data that, of course, all the media use. Indeed the same problem occurs with date of death - and as you see in my posts I mention the true numbers dying on a day once these are reasonably well established a week later v the numbers that were posted on that day as having occurred then and thus the figure that appears in all the media - as they can be quite different like the cases too.

Please keep posting these graphs though.

And I am happy to do a weekly list of the ACTUAL numbers ascribed to that data for each GM town v the numbers that were posted on the day itself if anyone wants me too.

I just do not want to overload data. It is already a lot to take in.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Many services contracts don't have penalty clauses. In fact I've been writing IT services contracts (as a vendor) for 30 years and have hardly ever included them. Lazy reporting from click-bait shit stirrers.
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Yes, I have been involved with a few contracts with penalty clauses but they aren’t the norm. That said, in a contract of this value, with a dubious provider and where I’d imagine it would be doable to have success / failure KPIs, I would expect there to be penalty clauses. Maybe that wasn’t practicable.
 
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