COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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shemnel said:
can i ask you a couple of questions about your pop score?

are you basing this on the date of cases reported stats that you give on here?
are you using 7 days up to today? or some other day a few days ago?
are you using the mid-2019 pop estimates per LTLA?

Cheers
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I did explain a few days ago why it would not be the same as the one the gov use but is based on the same principles,

It is just the running total of the pop score across the last seven days for each borough which I record daily- the pop score as given on the gov uk site each day. Rounded to the nearest number.

I am not a scientist, statistician or mathematics expert to look for raw data outside the norm. So as I explained before its a rough guide to how GM matches up to the Red Zone numbers and will not be idetical but is pretty close to those numbers so it cannot be far off the mark.

I doubt most people reading here even know what it mreans as I have been asked mukltiple tomes on here by dfferent people new to the thread what a Pop score is. It is not an easy concept to grasp unless you are maths whizz I would think.

if you want to put together a better sourced more correct data table, please do. I dont mind that at all and will save me half an hour a day.
 
Healdplace said:
I did explain a few days ago why it would not be the same as the one the gov use but is based on the same principles,

It is just the running total of the pop score across the last seven days for each borough which I record daily- the pop score as given on the gov uk site each day. Rounded to the nearest number.

I am not a scientist, statistician or mathematics expert to look for raw data outside the norm. So as I explained before its a rough guide to how GM matches up to the Red Zone numbers and will not be idetical but is pretty close to those numbers so it cannot be far off the mark.
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no sorry i dont mean to have a go, im just trying to understand how you do it, what your method is. dont take these things personally and i didnt imply you were or weren't this that or the other. ta
 
Chippy_boy said:
Why?

Surely it makes sense to test people who for whatever reason might have been at risk, before they go off and infect others without realising it. It is the very fact that people without symptoms are infectious, which is the root cause of this pandemic being such a problem.
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It’s always been the reason why we are in this mess...as soon as it became apparent that this virus gave no symptoms to the majority and they were still infectious and yet the same virus was also fatal to a minority set group. Said back in March that this was one lethal cocktail.

Sars1 though far more deadly to all age groups would have been a blessing compared to sars2 (sars1 was also only infectious when symptoms started)
 
shemnel said:
no sorry i dont mean to have a go, im just trying to understand how you do it, what your method is. dont take these things personally and i didnt imply you were or weren't this that or the other. ta
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Of course not. I wasn't thinking that or taking it personally.

Its just clear from your posts that you know about these things far better than I do and if you want to put data up here I am more than happy to see that - as from your obvious experience it would be better sourced.

I used to come here to read Gelson's Dad's hospital data graphs until he left. So I started doing them for my own interest and so - when clear he was not coming back - I then posted them here as I was compiling them for my own interest daily in his absence anyway.

Though I have no tech expertise at all (I did once teach primary school in pre computer days but one and one is two was about as far as I needed to go). And no clue how to post graphs or tables here.

More than happy to defer to anyone wanting to do this job as it is very time consuming, Luckly I am old enough and locked down enough to have the time. But I am not going to complain if someone else starts doing things. My job is such that I dont really get to retire so I do have other stuff I could - should - be doing. So never going to say no to help.
 
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M18CTID said:
The point some of us have been making is that the figures for GM have actually been falling over the past few days. If they were still rising day by day with no sign of hitting a peak then it would obviously be difficult to argue against putting us in tier 3, but it seems to me that the peak has been reached and we’re now on a gradual downward trajectory.
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Really hope so, mate.

I guess in some places the sheer numbers alone are enough but high and rising is obviously the worst possible combo.
 
cleavers said:
More likely due to parents flapping about johnny and jessy having the snivels after returning to school, the same snivels they get every year after the summer holidays.
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You‘re a bit out of date. It’s Ezekiel and Eliza these days. Johnny and Jessy are now old git grandparents waiting outside the school gates.
 
Healdplace said:
Of course not. I wasn't thinking that or taking it personally.

Its just clear from your posts that you know about these things far better than I do and if you want to put data up here I am more than happy to see that - as from your obvious experience it would be better sourced.

I used to come here to read Gelson's Dad's hospital data graphs until he left. So I started doing them for my own interest and so - when clear he was not coming back - I then posted them here as I was compiling them for my own interest daily in his absence anyway.

Though I have no tech expertise at all (I did once teach primary school in pre computer days but one and one is two was about as far as I needed to go). And no clue how to post graphs or tables here.

More than happy to defer to anyone wanting to do this job as it is very time consuming, Luckly I am old enough and locked down enough to have the time. But I am not going to complain if someone else starts doing things. My job is such that I dont really get to retire so I do have other stuff I could - should - be doing. So never going to say no to help.
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sure yeah i just want to understand the points of view, in amongst the chaff there are some good posts. i can put some stuff up from time to time, im just quite busy usually. You do a good one, keep it up.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Political bollocks. The more observant amongst us might have noticed that since the government's plans to hire the extra nurses, there's been a bit of an unexpected glitch called COVID which has kind of thrown EVERYTHING up in the air. Of course dickheads with a political agenda may not have noticed this.
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Another story you’ve not read then? It’s merely pointing out that if hospital are currently carrying 10% vacancy rates, staffing the Nightingales might be a tad challenging.
 
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Chippy_boy said:
Agreed.

If people stop acting like twats, the virus stays under control. Put your mask on (hint: over your fucking nose as well), stay 2m apart, wash your hands. Heck, even stay in a bit perhaps - huge hardship though that is.

If the vast majority of people took this seriously, we wouldn't be in this shite situation. I mean, cashiers at Morrisons with no fucking masks on. WTF is that about. Have Morrisons no clue just how many people a cashier comes into contact with and how many people an infected cashier might infect? I means it's just shit for brains behaviour isn't it.
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People won’t stop acting like twats though, most ills in this world revolve around people acting like twats. Why would they change during the Pandemic? Unless the govt police business transport act upon this we are pissing in the wind.
 
shemnel - I understand that. I should be doing other things too, but I work to my own timetable these days given the work I do and doing these posts gives me a purpose and helps me get through the days until we are out the other side of this.

Those who have exchanged PMs with me may understand why I dont want to say more on the forum itself. Its also why I did not go out of my way to explain I was not a bloke. It did not matter in context here and was an obvious assumption on this forum.

It also gave me a degree of anonymity that helped me here but has too often driven me off other social media where I tend to use my own name not a username.
 
worsleyweb said:
Blujon May yet be correct?
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We might never know after he was hounded off the site by people behaving like absolute bell-ends, sadly. Say ’we‘re all going to die’, ’science is truth’, and no death matters more than a Covid death and you got a chance. Anything else, not so much..
 
Chippy_boy said:
Agreed.

If people stop acting like twats, the virus stays under control. Put your mask on (hint: over your fucking nose as well), stay 2m apart, wash your hands. Heck, even stay in a bit perhaps - huge hardship though that is.

If the vast majority of people took this seriously, we wouldn't be in this shite situation. I mean, cashiers at Morrisons with no fucking masks on. WTF is that about. Have Morrisons no clue just how many people a cashier comes into contact with and how many people an infected cashier might infect? I means it's just shit for brains behaviour isn't it.
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It was the same at M&S in the Trafford Centre the other day which really surprised me as I thought they would be spot on with that sort thing.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Why?

Surely it makes sense to test people who for whatever reason might have been at risk, before they go off and infect others without realising it. It is the very fact that people without symptoms are infectious, which is the root cause of this pandemic being such a problem.
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Pretty sure I read somewhere that only 10% of students who tested positive for it at one of the unis - might’ve been Manchester but can’t remember - displayed symptoms. 90% not showing symptoms is a fucking frightening figure.
 
Manchester positive tests down now for 7 days in a row. No wonder
Burnham is resisting going into Tier 3. The real question is why was it put into Tier 2?

Stockport, Salford & Tameside down too. Some other GM boroughs still increasing but overall picture for GM looks pretty stable. One exception: Bolton still going up despite effectively being in Tier 3 for weeks.

Increase in London positives has been slowing steadily & close to zero on 10th Oct (may end up being revised up slightly). 11th likely to end up as small decrease, 12th as increase but no sign of any rapid increase in cases. Tier 2 decision bizarre but Kahn seemed desperate not to be left out.
Essex is even odder with 4 hospital deaths in a week.

In the North East, 7-day average positive tests coming down (at 10 Oct) in Newcastle, Gateshead, North & South Tyneside, Northumberland & Middlesbrough.

Even murkeyside isn’t quite as bad. 7-day average positive tests by specimen date going down (at 10 Oct) in Halton, Wirral, Knowsely. Liverpool looks constant although up in Sefton & St Helens but even there now increasing at a very slow rate.
And this is well before any possible Tier 3 effect.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Manchester positive tests down now for 7 days in a row. No wonder
Burnham is resisting going into Tier 3. The real question is why was it put into Tier 2?

Stockport, Salford & Tameside down too. Some other GM boroughs still increasing but overall picture for GM looks pretty stable. One exception: Bolton still going up despite effectively being in Tier 3 for weeks.

Increase in London positives has been slowing steadily & close to zero on 10th Oct (may end up being revised up slightly). 11th likely to end up as small decrease, 12th as increase but no sign of any rapid increase in cases. Tier 2 decision bizarre but Kahn seemed desperate not to be left out.
Essex is even odder with 4 hospital deaths in a week.

In the North East, 7-day average positive tests coming down (at 10 Oct) in Newcastle, Gateshead, North & South Tyneside, Northumberland & Middlesbrough.

Even murkeyside isn’t quite as bad. 7-day average positive tests by specimen date going down (at 10 Oct) in Halton, Wirral, Knowsely. Liverpool looks constant although up in Sefton & St Helens but even there now increasing at a very slow rate.
And this is well before any possible Tier 3 effect.
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which is promising, I think because of the several week lag and the figures reflecting what was happening before the first measures were brought back in the government still had to be seen to do something. Now hopefully they are starting to work and we can keep it in check the next few weeks and bring communities out of tier 3. Hopefully, once the majority understand what it takes to keep cases at a tolerable level whilst still having things open if can be self-maintained better, hopefully the tier 3 just acts as a temporary spook to bring more people in line. We can hope.
 
Amid all the angst and blame game I’d be interested to see the effect of half term, particularly if it is extended.

It’s no surprise that the increased spread co-incided with schools going back. When you think that if a single pupil tested positive then the entire class was sent home for two weeks leading to swathes of possibly infected kids that due to there being no furlough, their parents weren’t able to look after. Wonder who the parents asked to help with childcare when this happened.....odds on the grandparents?!? Are we surprised that these older and more vulnerable people suddenly started catching coronavirus from infected pupils that were being sent home in their droves at the drop of a hat?

Pubs and hospitality opened on July 4th and the curve kept decreasing. Protests and large gatherings didn’t seem to have much affect either. As long as the government vow to keep schools open at all costs, kids will keep picking up the virus and end up having to be looked after by more vulnerable family members. I suspect closing hospitality will make cock all difference in reality.
 
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