COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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GM numbers are also good. Most places down and the second lowest weekly total of the week. At 1453 - 166 down on yesterday.

The last seven day run is 1455, 1533, 1445. 1521, 1515, 1619, 1453.

In what universe is that doubling. Looks to me like a plateau or indeed a fall (admittedly of just 2! over the seven days.)

If the economy is being based on these kind of sums we must all be millionaires by now.
 
Healdplace said:
Cases in GM have doubled in last 2 weeks he says. The situation is grave there. There will be more in ICUs in Manchester soon than in April. Says Boris.

Will not shut down businesses in Cornwall because Manchester has to 'unless I absolutely have to' do this nationally.
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If it is really low in cornwall then seal them off aside from work or essential journeys out , i am cornish and still have family there and they wont mind one bit, same for isle of white, jersey etc, if they are really low as well, i dont seem to hear about them
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
You’d think so and, for the summer I’d imagine that was true. However, there will now be patients being admitted with Covid plus another respiratory ailment. A recent study suggested Covid and flu together would double the time in hospital. Not only that, nosocomial infections are also driving the ‘patients in hospital‘ number. Up to 24% of Covid patients are catching it in hospital. Go in for a hip replacement an and catch it and you are added to the in hospital with Covid numbers.
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My 87 year father in law, in hospital after having a heart attack, was sent home without warning, as 3 patients on his ward developed Covid. Told to self isolate and that he was safer at home. No care package or follow up appointment.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
You’d think so and, for the summer I’d imagine that was true. However, there will now be patients being admitted with Covid plus another respiratory ailment. A recent study suggested Covid and flu together would double the time in hospital. Not only that, nosocomial infections are also driving the ‘patients in hospital‘ number. Up to 24% of Covid patients are catching it in hospital. Go in for a hip replacement an and catch it and you are added to the in hospital with Covid numbers.
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I think they are both important measurements. how many being added each day gives an idea of how fast overflow will happen but total in hospital says how close you are to overflowing.

For example if we know the NW has 100 ICU beds ( figure for ease of example ) and we're at 75 used, if the figure going in is still faster than the figure going out then we know we wil hit saturation soon.
 
Summerbuzz said:
Twice the rate of hospitalisations per capita since Sept 1 - admittedly not corrected for other factors. But it's a stark statistic and I haven't read anything that 'disproves' it.
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It’s socio economic status and jobs being done, underlying health conditions and living in houses of multiple occupancy, but it’s not ‘because‘ they are BAME.
 
SiMCFC said:
It is impossible to know what the long term affects could/will be though from both the virus and the vaccine that is my only worry. It happened with MMR and it's happened with many others, until there is a better data set which can only come with time I wouldn't personally feel it was right to 'test' it out on a child.
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This is 2020 and every scientist is working on it, that should give you comfort really, children would be the last to get it i would imagine and it will probably not be a live virus so it wouldnt make you ill, it is being properly tested, dont worry about that

The guy who scared everyone withthe MMR vaccine was shown to be a crank , measles will kill kids if the get it badly , there is no reason to take that risk
 
grunge said:
I think they are both important measurements. how many being added each day gives an idea of how fast overflow will happen but total in hospital says how close you are to overflowing.

For example if we know the NW has 100 ICU beds ( figure for ease of example ) and we're at 75 used, if the figure going in is still faster than the figure going out then we know we wil hit saturation soon.
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We do but that’s true every year. Less ICU patients in NW hospitals this week than the equivalent week last year and ICU always gets full between October and January.
 
SiMCFC said:
It is impossible to know what the long term affects could/will be though from both the virus and the vaccine that is my only worry. It happened with MMR and it's happened with many others, until there is a better data set which can only come with time I wouldn't personally feel it was right to 'test' it out on a child.
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What happened with MMR ?
 
Healdplace said:
1657, 3019, 1888, 1542, 1845, 941, 1455, 1533, 1445, 1521, 1515, 1619 are the last 12 days GM totals which are apparently doubling Boris has just claimed.

I must not be very good at maths as that does not look anything like what I call doubling. (The 3000 was the day they added all the cases they lost btw).

It is not falling but it is pretty obviously not escalating rapidly either.
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I think he was talking about admission and icu beds not cases
 
The phone-ins are full of people saying they are confused about the advice/regulations. No wonder. The differences between tier 1 and 2, and 2 and 3, are relatively minor. Even tier 3 is a limp-wristed option.

In that context the GM debate is little more than a base squabble about the level of government financial support.

In the meantime I could go down to my local tonight to meet a few mates (if I had any), offer the name M Mouse and give Andy Burnham’s telephone number.
 
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What does have to be said though is that the % of cases in GM today of the North West total has increased over yesterday. Back over 40% again as the NW total fell quite a lot today.

Indeed the biggest fall seems to have been on Merseyside before their tier one status even started.

For the first time in a while Liverpool was just below Manchester - both fell today but Liverpool from 625 cases to 297 - their lowest in the 10 days I have been keeping score there.

Knowsley too had its lowest numbers in days and its pop score only went up 86 to 2947.

indeed Birmingham was top today for the first time in a while with 516 cases.
 
Healdplace said:
Scotland data. Bad again.

9 deaths

1196 cases

416 Greater Glasgow, 309 Lanarkshire, `161 Lothian. Only Shetland had no new cases.

16.9% positive.

629 in hospital (up 28 in day)

58 on ventilators (up 7 in day)
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To be fair they've dropped 200 cases on yesterday.
 
SiMCFC said:
It is impossible to know what the long term affects could/will be though from both the virus and the vaccine that is my only worry. It happened with MMR and it's happened with many others, until there is a better data set which can only come with time I wouldn't personally feel it was right to 'test' it out on a child.
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Nothing happened with MMR past a greedy doctor making shit up for money.....
 
roubaixtuesday said:
You have your infection rates mixed up

IFR is (deaths/ infections), whether or not non- fatal infections were detected. It is *not* affected by testing, but is age dependent. You would not, as @Chippy_boy says, expect this to be significantly different in a given age range second time around.

CFR is (deaths/ positive tests), Case fatality rate. That does change according to testing as you describe.
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It might be different, the ITU mortality fell throughout the first wave, steroids appear to work well, we may find antibodies/convalescent plasma or possbily tocilizumab and general understanding of the disease and anticoagulation etc has probably helped.
There is a theory that lower inoculums due to distancing , masks etc may be bringing down mortality. Lets hope.
 
This sums it up for me , boris is safe with a huge majority , four years till election and they wont want a leadership battle during a pandemic , stop playing politics with this ffs

But Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser, said "baseline" Tier 3 measures "almost certainly aren't enough" to get infection numbers down.

And asked if people would die as a result of the row between Downing Street and Manchester leaders, he said: "It is important to go quite fast on this... The sooner you do that the sooner you get this under control."

Todays briefing
 
Summerbuzz said:
That's supposition mate. No way anyone can demonstrate that yet.
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It’s not supposition, there’s no genetic reason why that population are more affected. If you live in the most deprived areas you’re more likely to be in critical care with Covid. If you live in the least deprived you are the least likely. If you did a key worker job with no masks, poor PPE and lots of contact with virus riddled people you were much more likely to catch it.

PHE produced a report as well: The report stated that the disparity was due to the fact that ‘BAME people are more likely to live in urban areas, in overcrowded households, in deprived areas, and have jobs that expose them to higher risk. ‘People of BAME groups are also more likely than people of white British ethnicity to be born abroad, which means they may face additional barriers in accessing services that are created by, for example, cultural and language differences. ‘Secondly, people of BAME communities are also likely to be at increased risk of poorer outcomes once they acquire the infection.’

https://assets.publishing.service.g..._and_outcomes_of_COVID_August_2020_update.pdf
 
Healdplace said:
Only if you seal them all off and let nobody from the outside come in - like Wales plan to do.

A pandemic in a small island will not obey boundaries if the people carrying it choose to find reasons to go elsewhere for the weekend.

Nicola Sturgeon has spent ages this morning still trying to stop people from Glasgow travelling to Carlisle and Blackpool to watch a football match and even has people telling her to cancel it because it is such a risk.

If we had simple rapid testing to control outside access you can run this via local lockdowns. We dont. And we saw how well it worked for Greater Manchester making Wigan immune from the restrictions beause its numbers were so low.

The result was turning Wigan into a basket case that nobody saw coming. But likely should have.
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Give over.
May as well lock the world down by that rational.
Only superspreader events are statistically significant to take it into a new area.
 
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