COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Churchlawtonblue said:
www.statista.com

Number of hospital beds UK 2023| Statista

How many hospital beds are in the UK? The number of hospital beds in the U.S. hit an all time low in 2020 and has increased slightly in the years since.
www.statista.com www.statista.com

Pretty big fall of 75k hospital beds the past 20years. We are probably paying the price for this policy now.
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Before the last decade, NHS hospital beds were halving every 20 years or so IIRC. The cumulative reduction on beds may have gone too far (although much of the reduction tied in with reduced patient lengths of stay and more care taking place in communities). German hospitals tend to have spare calcite for emergencies.
www.kingsfund.org.uk

The number of hospital beds | The King's Fund

A shift in national policy towards providing care outside of hospital has seen a reduction in the number of hospital beds. How has the number of hospital beds in England changed over time and how does this compare to other countries?
www.kingsfund.org.uk www.kingsfund.org.uk
 
As I have tried to explain a few times in here over the past 24 hours the gulf between the media reporting (as the BBC did just now) that Boris was singling out GM as it is facing sharply increasing case numbers. 'A serious situation that demands action today' one Minister put it. And then the data on here every evening. Is that this is from yesterday if you look (now rising over the past 48 hours but up until Friday when this all kicked off it was clearly falling through the week.)

The data used in almost all the media reports comes from Tuesday (we will get Wednesdays today - when they may note a small fall but will miss the increase over the weekend until later this week - or indeed if it actually is an increase as that might not be what we see).

Its all about the cases REPORTED daily (which are all the tests sent back on the day before reporting) and the true numbers on each day - which does not become clear for 4 or 5 days because it takes forever to get some tests back.

The cases when alloted to the actul day are obviously more accurate to tracking things but by necessity they are telling you what numbers we had 4/5 days ago. Not yesterday. And they do often differ.

The hospital numbers - of course - drive decisions too. But in reality % wise GM is not rising as fast as some areas - but we have more people in, more people on ICUs and more people dying almost every day as you will see from the English hospital data I post just after 2 every afternoon.

That is obviously critical to not overrunning the NHS locally. But it all depends how you read the data and if you even understand there are multi-ple sets of data with different messages from each when a pandemic is ever changing and can be fast moving.

Numbers can be - and are being - used for political reasons to twist the picture. What you have to try to do is understand how and why this is happening and grasp as best you can what the truth is between these multiple sets of information- only one of which you are likely being told about in a journalist or politician's message demanding this, that or the other be done off the back of it.
 
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BlueAnorak said:
The quarantine thing is just astonishing. People have ZERO responsibility for their follow Brits.
- Only 18% of people fully quarantine.
- 30% don't bother at all
- The rest break it once or twice to get important stuff.

We really are fucked. As a nation we are packed with self centered twats who in reality couldn't give a shit about anyone else.
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At my daughter’s school, a cover supervisor returned from her Spanish holiday and went straight into work without the mandatory two week quarantine. Four days later she‘s off sick with COVID.

A parent sent her sick child into school who had tested positive. However the parent didn’t warn the school, or anyone else, as she and her boyfriend were going on holiday that week and didn’t want to have to isolate and miss the holiday.
 
I see 57 year old Yasmin Qureshi, MP for Bolton South East has been hospitalised with Covid-19.
Well done Andy Burnham for playing politics.
 
squirtyflower said:
At my daughter’s school, a cover supervisor returned from her Spanish holiday and went straight into work without the mandatory two week quarantine. Four days later she‘s off sick with COVID.

A parent sent her sick child into school who had tested positive. However the parent didn’t warn the school, or anyone else, as she and her boyfriend were going on holiday that week and didn’t want to have to isolate and miss the holiday.
Click to expand...

This is why the British general public are a bunch of selfish tossers. I hope both were shopped and are met with a hefty fine, plenty of households have avoided going away or observed the rules regarding quarantine.
 
If the hospital data is the driving factor there is no question thw NW is rising the fastest. A 46% increase over the past 7 days in patient numbers. Most other areas in the past week have only risen around 33% in that week.

If it is people on ventilators that are the concern - being the most likely to have restricted capacity and also to die -you can frame it differently As in that week the NW has only risen by 29 to 161 - so in effect about a 22% rise. Wheras London has gone from 57 to 86 - which is over a 50% rise. So which has the biggest crisis?

And if you look at the situation in the South West - Devon and Cornwall - the area Boris singled out as being so low in numbers that it would be unfair to have a national circuit breaker penalising them - their ventilated Covid patients have risen in the same 7 days from 8 to 21 - a rise of over 150%. Patients also went up from 94 to 161 in this area - the biggest increase week to week in the UK in percentage term of nearly 70%.

I am not suggesting this proves that the SW should be locked down and the NW should not.Of course not. As the actual numbers are small and distorting the perception and local capacity are the big issues that determine meaning and consequent action.

All I am saying is that numbers can be used to tell you what the person using them wants you to believe. And you may well not realise that is happening. Indeed often the journalist or the politician doing it has no idea they are doing it either.
 
squirtyflower said:
At my daughter’s school, a cover supervisor returned from her Spanish holiday and went straight into work without the mandatory two week quarantine. Four days later she‘s off sick with COVID.

A parent sent her sick child into school who had tested positive. However the parent didn’t warn the school, or anyone else, as she and her boyfriend were going on holiday that week and didn’t want to have to isolate and miss the holiday.
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That has really angered me.
These people are either stupid or wilfully negligent. I really hope someone in authority has more than a few words with each party.
 
mackenzie said:
That has really angered me.
These people are either stupid or wilfully negligent. I really hope someone in authority has more than a few words with each party.
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I’m not sure what, if anything, has been done with the cover supervisor.
She also went to Blackpool for the weekend whilst off work sick.

The child and parent have been reported to the Local Authority as is expected from the school.
 
Healdplace said:
If the hospital data is the driving factor there is no question thw NW is rising the fastest. A 46% increase over the past 7 days in patient numbers. Most other areas in the past week have only risen around 33% in that week.

If it is people on ventilators that are the concern - being the most likely to have restricted capacity and also to die -you can frame it differently As in that week the NW has only risen by 29 to 161 - so in effect about a 22% rise. Wheras London has gone from 57 to 86 - which is over a 50% rise. So which has the biggest crisis?

And if you look at the situation in the South West - Devon and Cornwall - the area Boris singled out as being so low in numbers that it would be unfair to have a national circuit breaker penalising them - their ventilated Covid patients have risen in the same 7 days from 8 to 21 - a rise of over 150%. Patients also went up from 94 to 161 in this area - the biggest increase week to week in the UK in percentage term of nearly 70%.

I am not suggesting this proves that the SW should be locked down and the NW should not.Of course not. As the actual numbers are small and distorting the perception and local capacity are the big issues that determine meaning and consequent action.

All I am saying is that numbers can be used to tell you what the person using them wants you to believe. And you may well not realise that is happening. Indeed often the journalist or the politician doing it has no idea they are doing it either.
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The SW has gone into Tier 1. As has the S, SE and E. Let's she the effect of that before killing their economies.
Destroying local economies will result in more deaths than Covid has.
 
cleavers said:
People who test negative won't isolate, quite a few who test positive probably won't either, and those asymptomatic who don't test because they don't know won't isolate, and that is why it continues to spread.

To stop spread, it should be compulsory for people with symptoms (ie enough symptoms they feel the need to get a test), and anyone testing positive to isolate, and it should be monitored that they are doing so, but there is nobody to police it.
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I got tested yesterday because I’ve lost my sense of taste/smell and have a tiny bit more mucus than normal. In normal circumstances, there would be no way I would have felt compelled to do this as it feels like a bit of a cold.

However, I did due to part of my wife’s job is dealing with the vulnerable.

Got tested at the Etihad last night at 6. (Booked at 4pm), got my negative result this morning at 10:45am.

It only takes 10 mins (plus travel time). It’s not that pleasant, but we now feel that we aren’t going to adversely affect the vulnerable.

If in doubt; get tested.
 
Alan Harper's Tash said:
I got tested yesterday because I’ve lost my sense of taste/smell and have a tiny bit more mucus than normal. In normal circumstances, there would be no way I would have felt compelled to do this as it feels like a bit of a cold.

However, I did due to part of my wife’s job is dealing with the vulnerable.

Got tested at the Etihad last night at 6. (Booked at 4pm), got my negative result this morning at 10:45am.

It only takes 10 mins (plus travel time). It’s not that pleasant, but we now feel that we aren’t going to adversely affect the vulnerable.

If in doubt; get tested.
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If in doubt, get tested and isolate until you get the results
 
BlueAnorak said:
The SW has gone into Tier 1. As has the S, SE and E. Let's she the effect of that before killing their economies.
Destroying local economies will result in more deaths than Covid has.
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Isn’t tier 1 (medium) just the same restrictions as last week and the week before etc? Or do you mean tier 2 (high)?
 
Healdplace said:
As I have tried to explain a few times in here over the past 24 hours the gulf between the media reporting (as the BBC did just now) that Boris was singling out GM as it is facing sharply increasing case numbers. 'A serious situation that demands action today' one Minister put it. And then the data on here every evening. Is that this is from yesterday if you look (now rising over the past 48 hours but up until Friday when this all kicked off it was clearly falling through the week.)

The data used in almost all the media reports comes from Tuesday (we will get Wednesdays today - when they may note a small fall but will miss the increase over the weekend until later this week - or indeed if it actually is an increase as that might not be what we see).

Its all about the cases REPORTED daily (which are all the tests sent back on the day before reporting) and the true numbers on each day - which does not become clear for 4 or 5 days because it takes forever to get some tests back.

The cases when alloted to the actul day are obviously more accurate to tracking things but by necessity they are telling you what numbers we had 4/5 days ago. Not yesterday. And they do often differ.

The hospital numbers - of course - drive decisions too. But in reality % wise GM is not rising as fast as some areas - but we have more people in, more people on ICUs and more people dying almost every day as you will see from the English hospital data I post just after 2 every afternoon.

That is obviously critical to not overrunning the NHS locally. But it all depends how you read the data and if you even understand there are multi-ple sets of data with different messages from each when a pandemic is ever changing and can be fast moving.

Numbers can be - and are being - used for political reasons to twist the picture. What you have to try to do is understand how and why this is happening and grasp as best you can what the truth is between these multiple sets of information- only one of which you are likely being told about in a journalist or politician's message demanding this, that or the other be done off the back of it.
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I've seen an argument that the plateau or drop in Mcr and some other cities like Leeds is down to a rapid burn through the student population.

The spread in the wider community is masked by this, but you can differentiate through the hospitalisation data - as very few students will end up in hospital beds.

If true it's possible both that local case numbers are flat or even falling, *and* that local community spread is at a worrying and rapidly rising level.

Not at all saying this is definitively a correct interpretation, just that it could make sense.
 
Scottish data first

1 death v 0 last wk and 0 wk before

993 cases v 961 last wk and 697 wk before

362 in Greater Glasgow, 294 Lanarkshire, 122 Lothian, 57 Ayr

At 17.1% positive v 17.0% last wk v 12.8% wk before

In hospital 754 (up 40 in day) v 527 last wk v 262 wk before

On ventilatrs 61 (-2) v 36 last wk v 22 wk before
 
The cases are again hinting at a plateau - though they are still investigating the drop yesterday caused by diverting Lighthouse lab cases elsewhere due to our old friend'testing capacity issues'.

They are also changing the way they record % positive tests in Scotland by not counting them more than once as has apparently been happening.

So the % positive will change from here on to better reflect NEW positive cases only not just people who have been reconfirmed via multiple tests. I think that is what she is saying.

She notes that the 17.1% positive today under the old measures will - under the new measure - fall to 6.4%.

So it creates a big change and worth recalling that in future when this seems to be much lower in weekly comparisons.
 
Healdplace said:
The cases are again hinting at a plateau - though they are still investigating the drop yesterday caused by divdrting Lighthouse lans elsewhere due to our old friend testing capacity issues.

They are also changing the way they record % tests by not counting them more than once as has apparetly been happening. So the % positive will change from here on to better reflect NEW positive cases not just people who have been reconfirmed via multipke tests. I think that is what ahe is saying.

She notes that the 17.1% positive today under the new measure will be 6.4%. So it creates a big change.
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Do you think that this wave will be less devastating than the last one pal?
 
Healdplace said:
Scottish data first

1 death v 0 last wk and 0 wk before

993 cases v 961 last wk and 697 wk before

362 in Greater Glasgow, 294 Lanarkshire, 122 Lothian, 57 Ayr

At 17.1% positive v 17.0% last wk v 12.8% wk before

In hospital 754 (up 40 in day) v 527 last wk v 262 wk before

On ventilatrs 61 (-2) v 36 last wk v 22 wk before
Click to expand...
That sounds fairly positive, doesn’t it?
 
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