COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Corky said:
Which has never been a region hence the confusion.

But you think he is mayor of multiple regions... okay
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He was elected Mayor of Greater Manchester in May 2017. Is it a question of semantics as to whether you call the parts that make up GM a region, councils, areas, boroughs etc. Question still stands though. is the rate in the area that Burnham is Mayor of going up or down
 
BerkshireBlue said:
I presume you're just looking at Manchester. Try doing the same thing for the Southwest or anywhere else. The data gets drastically supressed so your basis that it's one or two out is totally wrong. If you can't take criticism then you should quit the internet as I haven't said any snide remarks
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no i'm not just looking at Manchester. I grant you the MSOAs present a problem due to the perceived privacy issues, which become increasingly problematic as you get less and less cases, just like the SW. I would argue that this data is perhaps getting into murky territory at that level of geography anyway due to people's mobility but i suppose that's just my opinion. I had a quick look at the week 28th Sep to 4th Oct (Week 41) and the SW region total is the same as the totals for 14 UTLAs and the same as the total for 27 LTLAs (this is cases). The 350 MSOAs sum to 15% less, and this isn't helpful, but the gap can be nearly closed by randomly assigning 0, 1 or 2 to those areas with suppressed numbers. The latter is far from ideal but how helpful is data when the cases are less than 3 in an area ~5 to 8,000 people?.
 
Eds said:
So what's the answer to my question?
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there is no right answer to be honest.

in Manchester ( Not Greater Manchester ) there is a bit of downward trend. but that just means the number of infections is slowing, so we're still increasing but slower than elsewhere.

but in Salford its actively increasing in speed as it is in Rochdale.

So both are "right" in the sense that they are cherry picking data.
 
Northernstorirs said:
  • Cummings breaks Lockdown rules
  • Whopping PPE contracts awarded to tinpot businesses tory peers have a stake in
  • A catalogue of failed public messages
  • Went in to initial lockdown way too late

"Mother should I trust the government?"
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No deal with the Eu now no deal with Manchester on financial packages. I see a trend with this government.
 
Let’s assume the government are right and the entirety of the greater Manchester ITU service will be ‘overwhelmed’ by the first week in November (it has been completely full on multiple occasions in the past and I don’t remember such concern), do they not know the timeline of this virus? As if lockdown on October 20th will have any impact on ICU admissions in the first week in November. In fact, the only way ICU admissions can be reduced by then is if infections are already falling.....
Of course, if the SAGE modellers and the government ministers have known the ITUs would be overwhelmed by the first week in November they should have imposed their lockdown in September.
 
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The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
It’s also telling that the West Midlands, Yorkshire and Nottingham are currently hugely outstripping Manchester in infection rate but no suggestion of tier 2 or 3. Mind you, they’ve got MPs in the cabinet, whereas there are none from the North West or the North East!
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Both Yorks and Notts in discussions with gov around measures
 
Eds said:
So Burnham says infection rate going down across the region, MEN, BM and Government saying infection rate is going up, who is right? @Healdplace
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I answered that last night when discussing the data (yesterday was undeniably very bad in GM) and said this within seconds of them saying the exact opposite on the news last night.

All the media this morning are pushing this same argument that numbers are now going down but nobody is aware of why the data is conflicting depending on whether they use the 'finalised' cases from 5 days ago (going down and likely will for a couple of more days) - or the raw test data from yesterday (going up significantly in past 48 hours).

Let alone know which of these is most important. Though neither are more important than the rise in over 60s testing positive or the fact the NW has way more on ventilators than any other region. As this is why deaths in the NW almost every day are the highest proportion of those in the UK as the daily England hospital data shows around 2.30 pm each day.

When I worked for the media you had a responsibility to get your facts straight and understand the source.

Now its all about using what you can get to spin the story the way you are told.
 
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The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Let’s assume the government are right and the entirety of the greater Manchester ITU service will be ‘overwhelmed’ by the first week in November (it has been completely full on multiple occasions in the past and I don’t remember such concern), do they not know the timeline of this virus? As if lockdown on October 20th will have any impact on ICU admissions in the first week in November. In fact, the only way ICU admissions can be reduced by then is if infections are already falling.....
Of course, if the SAGE modellers and the government ministers have known the ITUs would be overwhelmed by the first week in November they should have imposed their lockdown in September.
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SAGE were asking for the circuit break / temporary lockdown about a month ago. I am not really pro the lockdown. I’m just pointing out a fact. The Government are trying to see what they see as the impact on the economy

If the surge capacity in ICU was overwhelmed (above current bed capacity) then I wonder if that would affect health and safety assessment for construction, engineering work etc.
 
Anybody more clued up than me know if we're likely to be going into tier 3 today?
 
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