COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Andy Burnham has made clear in the past hour that GM will not break the law so we will be in Tier 3.

I am not ideologically opposed to this kind of lockdown but the way the government this morning refused when asked multiple times by the BBC how much money they had offered GM to help businesses which will shut and pointed out that they had done different deals for varying sums and rules with Merseyside and Lancashire but will not be pinned down on GM suggests this is now an ego war over who is in charge.

THe truth though is I would be asking them VERY strongly why they think Tier 3 will make any difference to the numbers given that thet the 3 months that GM has been in lockdowm (when Merseyside has not - a fact a lot in the UK dont seem to understand) seems to have only one real impact.

To create the exact problem they now say that slightly tougher restrictions to the ones we already had are going to magically fix.

And I would definitely be asking them why when IN those months of restrictions places like Wigan, Trafford and Stockport - the three best in GM by miles when we entered those restrictions in July - are now far worse and not much behind the rest of GM in terms of cases. And with Wigan gone from 0 cases a day without restrictions to nearly 300 a day with them.

You cannot spin this as a success of the measures up to now even in any politician's wildest dreams and anyone living in GM should be very wary of just assuming this Tier 3 thing will be any more effective. And is not just a message to the rest of the country that this is under control.

Depends on why the last measures were a disaster and what is different about these that will not be.

I think only a nationwide circuit breaker creates no way for the virus to be imported and exported to unlocked down areas. Which looks like is what happened in Wigan.

So why will it not happen to loads of other towns where those who cannot go to the pub in Manchester will obviously just drive to instead if you can there?
 
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Healdplace said:
Andy Burnham has made clear in the past hour that GM will not break the law so we will be in Tier 3.

I am not ideologically opposed to this kind of lockdown but the way the government this morning refused when asked multiple times by the BBC how much money they had offered GM to help businesses which will shut and pointed out that they had done different deals for varying sums and rules with Merseyside and Lancashire but will not be pinned down on GM suggests this is now an ego war over who is in charge.

THe truth though is I would be asking them VERY strongly why they think Tier 3 will make any difference to the numbers given that thet the 3 months that GM has been in lockdowm (when Merseyside has not - a fact a lot in the UK dont seem to understand) seems to have only one real impact.

To create the exact problem they now say that slightly tougher restrictions to the ones we already had are going to magically fix.

And I would definutely be asking them why when IN those months of restrictions places like Wigan, Trafford and Stockport - the three best in GM by mikes when we entered those restrictions in JUly - are now far worse and not much behind the rest of GM in terms of cases. And Wigan has gone from 0 cases a day without restrictions to nearly 300 with them.

You cannot spin this as a success of the mreasures up to now and anyo0ne liuving in GM should be very wary of just assuming this Tier 3 thing will be any more effective.

Depends on why the last measures were a disaster and what is different about these that will not be.

I think only a nationwide circuit breaker creates no way for the virus to be imported and exported to unlocked down areas. Which looks like is what happened in Wigan.

So why will it not happen to loads of other towns where those who cannot go to the pub in Manchester will obviously just drive to instead if you can there?
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This doesn’t seem to have been pushed as much as it should have been. What have the last 12 weeks achieved? And yet they are being rolled out across the country.
 
artfuldodger said:
I don’t think it affects anything other than pubs, gyms, bookies and going on holiday.
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I work outside of GM so will be travelling in and out, which there is 'guidance' about according to BBC. Not sure whether that means it's 'advised against' or there's specific rules to come in to play upon us actually getting tier 3 status.

Guess we'll wait and see
 
Tim of the Oak said:
SAGE were asking for the circuit break / temporary lockdown about a month ago. I am not really pro the lockdown. I’m just pointing out a fact. The Government are trying to see what they see as the impact on the economy

If the surge capacity in ICU was overwhelmed (above current bed capacity) then I wonder if that would affect health and safety assessment for construction, engineering work etc.
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A whole range of illnesses are not being treated at the mo. I read somewhere that there are 3 million cardiac patients getting little or no treatment. Cancer similar story. Reports emerging of serious shortages of medical staff.
Covid has big knock on effects on the NHS.
 
Northblue said:
I work outside of GM so will be travelling in and out, which there is 'guidance' about according to BBC. Not sure whether that means it's 'advised against' or there's specific rules to come in to play upon us actually getting tier 3 status.

Guess we'll wait and see
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You can still travel in and out for work, if you can’t work from home. Although travelling/staying overnight etc is in guidance/advice, rather than legal, I know places like Center Parcs, AirBnB etc are cancelling trips for those in tier 3.
 
Northblue said:
I work outside of GM so will be travelling in and out, which there is 'guidance' about according to BBC. Not sure whether that means it's 'advised against' or there's specific rules to come in to play upon us actually getting tier 3 status.

Guess we'll wait and see
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It basically means they suggest you give up your job, dont drive in but if you think your job is essential then you are exampt. The exemption rate will be about 99%.

This is another problem with local restrictions. They are adhered to by the sensible and ignored by the ones who are not or who need to break them to survive.

So in essence like asking someone not to be naughty when the rest of the country is allowed to be unimpacted.

Without enforcement they cannot work because they make little difference to the behavior of the ones causing 90% of the problems.

The only places where it looks like this kind of lockdown works is where the community knows it will be strictly enforced by police or the state and not involve a ticking off and don't do it again consequence but being bolted into your home or put in jail for a month to 'self isolate'.

We are never going to do that here so they are not really effective in a liberal country. Unless they are seen to be fair by being natiowide and have a clear end point. Like the national circuit breakers.
 
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Healdplace said:
A weekend to create another 100 deaths as everyone goes blotto would be the usual plan.

Hopefully they are not that stupid again. But I do start to wonder.
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I doubt it. Liverpool was announced Monday, started Weds, Lancs announced Thursday started Saturday.
 
KS55 said:
A whole range of illnesses are not being treated at the mo. I read somewhere that there are 3 million cardiac patients getting little or no treatment. Cancer similar story. Reports emerging of serious shortages of medical staff.
Covid has big knock on effects on the NHS.
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The NHS is back to treating 90% of the patient numbers it would normally do but there is a backlog like you say.

The Covid has definitely had knock on affects to other patient care but things were getting back close to normal capacity. There was an ICU Consultant from Wales on the news this morning. Saying they have escalation plans but the 2nd wave came sooner than they expected. Hopefully, it’s not like what Mike Tyson said about boxers, “everybody has a plan until they are punched in the moth.”
 
Northblue said:
I work outside of GM so will be travelling in and out, which there is 'guidance' about according to BBC. Not sure whether that means it's 'advised against' or there's specific rules to come in to play upon us actually getting tier 3 status.

Guess we'll wait and see
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This may help

www.gov.uk

(COVID-19) Coronavirus restrictions: what you can and cannot do

Coronavirus restrictions remain in place. Find out what you can and cannot do.
www.gov.uk www.gov.uk


Going to work​

To help contain the virus, office workers who can work effectively from home should do so over the winter. Where an employer, in consultation with their employee, judges an employee can carry out their normal duties from home they should do so.

Public sector employees working in essential services, including education settings, should continue to go into work where necessary.

Anyone else who cannot work from home should go to their place of work.

The risk of transmission can be substantially reduced if COVID-secure guidelines are followed closely. Extra consideration should be given to those people at higher risk.

Those classed as clinically extremely vulnerable can go to work as long as the workplace is COVID secure, but should carry on working from home wherever possible.

For more information, follow the guidance on how to return to work safely.

People living inside and outside of the very high alert level area can continue to travel in and out of the areas for work.

There is no limit to the group size when you are meeting or gathering for work purposes, but workplaces should be set up to meet the COVID-secure guidelines.
 
Healdplace said:
I answered that last night when discussing the data (yesterday was undeniably very bad in GM) and said this within seconds of them saying the exact opposite on the news last night.

All the media this morning are pushing this same argument that numbers are now going down but nobody is aware of why the data is conflicting depending on whether they use the 'finalised' cases from 5 days ago (going down and likely will for a couple of more days) - or the raw test data from yesterday (going up significantly in past 48 hours).

Let alone know which of these is most important. Though neither are more important than the rise in over 60s testing positive or the fact the NW has way more on ventilators than any other region. As this is why deaths in the NW almost every day are the highest proportion of those in the UK as the daily England hospital data shows around 2.30 pm each day.

When I worked for the media you had a responsibility to get your facts straight and understand the source.

Now its all about using what you can get to spin the story the way you are told.
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So essentially everyone is quoting different figures to suit their own needs rather than all singing from the same hymn sheet. Burnham literally playing with people's lives. Heard him on the news this morning moaning about politicians in Westminster, conveniently forgetting that for many years he was part of the problem.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
The NHS is back to treating 90% of the patient numbers it would normally do but there is a backlog like you say.

The Covid has definitely had knock on affects to other patient care but things were getting back close to normal capacity. There was an ICU Consultant from Wales on the news this morning. Saying they have escalation plans but the 2nd wave came sooner than they expected. Hopefully, it’s not like what Mike Tyson said about boxers, “everybody has a plan until they are punched in the moth.”
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My wife is a medical secretary. She runs a waiting list and works for a consultant in the NHS. I don't want to compromise her position so I have kept my powder dry. When this is all over I will post her experience of what has happened in the last 6 months but make no mistake the knock on effect of this is massive and will be felt for many years in terms of waiting times. In normal clinic terms her consultant could see 22 face to face patients. They can only see 12 now. The operation times are longer because of the extra clean down time required between patients. You do the maths
 
Eds said:
So essentially everyone is quoting different figures to suit their own needs rather than all singing from the same hymn sheet. Burnham literally playing with people's lives. Heard him on the news this morning moaning about politicians in Westminster, conveniently forgetting that for many years he was part of the problem.
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More like doing his best to save a few. 3rd tier and this all stops spreading does it? It’s a fucking farce as usual from these shower of scumbags in charge.
 
The real problem with these "Tier 3" restrictions, even more than the likelihood of plunging a whole new swathe of people into poverty, is that nobody actually believes it will work.

The government's own advisors have openly said as much in news conferences with ministers, including the Prime Minister.

"Additional measures" are said to be required, but not specified.

How on earth have we got to the point of government policy being to close businesses despite not believing themselves it will bring the necessary benefit. It's beyond belief.

The whole lesson first time around was that you need to get on top of this before it becomes a problem. Otherwise the inherent lags from infection -> symptoms -> test -> hospitalisation -> ICU -> death are so long that how many will die a month hence is almost already decided. And deaths are doubling every ten days or so.

We need to get infections down nationally as tiers 1 and 2 have been shown not to work.

We need to get test/track/trace working massively urgently.

We need to get much more support in place so people who do want to do the right thing in self isolating can afford to do so.
 
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