COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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nickmcfc1 said:
My wife is a medical secretary. She runs a waiting list and works for a consultant in the NHS. I don't want to compromise her position so I have kept my powder dry. When this is all over I will post her experience of what has happened in the last 6 months but make no mistake the knock on effect of this is massive and will be felt for many years in terms of waiting times. In normal clinic terms her consultant could see 22 face to face patients. They can only see 12 now. The operation times are longer because of the extra clean down time required between patients. You do the maths
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Yes and if things carry on on the current trajectory for a few more weeks then care / operations for oncology and elective patients will be disrupted further. That’s likely to happen because of the continued high rate of infections in Greater Manchester, unfortunately, that will result in more hospital and ICU admissions.
 
worsleyweb said:
I now know of at least ten people currently with it through work or family. Is clearly absolutely rife up here. Would be very interested to see the percentage of people in Manchester who have now had it? At some stage it has to start impacting the r rate??
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Yes the R rate is higher than the published figure I reckon
 
city saint said:
what baffles me is a lad at works wife was poorly and tested positive but stayed at home with my mate.he was tested before he came back to work and was negative.how can someone in close contact as he still slept in the same bed not catch it.
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He might have had it and been asymptomatic. He could have been the one who gave it his wife! Just by the time he tested it had cleared him and that’s why he was negative.
 
It’s really in locally in North Manchester at the minute.

2 of my mates dads have got it, 1 is in intensive care.

Brother and gf had it just out of isolation.

5 of my mates have currently got it and some of their immediate family no doubt have it too.

I really don’t understand how old and vunerable people aren’t being told to isolate/shield, the shops, pubs and restaurants are full of them.

keeping away from my parents, drop anything i need to at the bottom of the drive etc
 
i dont think a vaccine will be 100% effective, i mean that's just my opinion, so we will likely be looking at a flu like vaccine to keep on top of an endemic disease? deaths every year here on from covid? in a much smaller way obviously.
 
Manchester continues down up to 15 Oct, probably levelling off in subsequent days; GM flat up to 15th, but likely up a bit from 16th.
Positive tests in Liverpool & Merseyside as a whole still coming down (still before tier 3 restrictions could have had any effect), whilst new positives in Sheffield & Leeds still coming down up to 15th Oct, from data already reported, may tick up a bit on 16th.
Positive tests in Nottingham & Newcastle coming down fast.

Looking at positive tests across the regions, at 15th Oct decreases in NW, EM, NE, SE & SW. Up in E, WM & (very slightly) London. No change in Yorkshire.

So, new positives down at 15 Oct (last date when data reliable). Given data already reported for subsequent days, trend is still a (slow) increase rather than a decrease but it’s miles away from the armageddon being portrayed and it’s miles away from being anything approaching April.
 
shemnel said:
i dont think a vaccine will be 100% effective, i mean that's just my opinion, so we will likely be looking at a flu like vaccine to keep on top of an endemic disease? deaths every year here on from covid? in a much smaller way obviously.
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It won’t be a 100 percent effective and not a silver bullet to suddenly return things back to normal. The early approved vaccines will be stop gaps which hopefully the vulnerable and front line workers will get access to. The treatments that are in development will assist along side any vaccine, I would imagine stopping any resurgence of covid will mean constant evolving of vaccines year on year like they do with flu. Good news if you have shares in Pzizer, Astro Zeneca etc.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
R is about 1.1 in the NW. Only place it’s really higher, in England in the West Midlands at about 1.4.
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Assuming your figures are correct, it's important to understand that the r rate is only as low as it is BECAUSE of all the combined measures we are taking. Were we not taking them, it would probably be nearer 3.

So it's critically important that we continue with the levels of vigilance and discipline we have at present or else it will explode again. This is challenging as public fatigue sets in and people get complacent. That's why it's right - essential IMO - that the government maintains its current line.
 
feedmpenzaandhewillscore said:
It won’t be a 100 percent effective and not a silver bullet to suddenly return things back to normal. The early approved vaccines will be stop gaps which hopefully the vulnerable and front line workers will get access to. The treatments that are in development will assist along side any vaccine, I would imagine stopping any resurgence of covid will mean constant evolving of vaccines year on year like they do with flu. Good news if you have shares in Pzizer, Astro Zeneca etc.
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It may we'll know when we know but there is nothing to suggest we will need a new vaccine every year like flu. There was an explanation on here posted by @SWP's back months ago that explained very well why the covid virus isn't as complicated as the flu one and not as liable to changes that would require a different vaccine.
People should wait for the science instead of guessing.
 
sniff said:
its not an argument of it being specifically pubs. the argument is that any indoor communal spaces are a risk. That's a proven fact and not for debate. But Schools are simply more important to the wider economy. they allow people of all professions to have child care whilst learning. so to shut a school will leave most parents with no option but to stay off work and that's the debate with the wider community right now. i know a pub has peoples livelihoods at stake, but so will closing schools. Closing a school causes more social issues than a pub im afraid, maybe there are better ways of doing things.. but ive not heard them brought to the table.. its not a simple as forcing people to stick to the rules, when the issue is simply people sharing the same space indoors.
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I never said schools should close, but I’d certainly question the decision to allow universities to open. Unlike schools, they and their students probably have the means for lectures to be conducted remotely. Instead we’ve seen huge spikes in cases that simply didn’t happen when hospitality opened back up in July. Sure, there was a rise in cases off the back of that but nothing like the surge we’ve seen from September onwards.
Closing some pubs (remember they don’t have to close as long as they can serve food) will hardly make a dent in case numbers, especially as many pubs are actually doing things properly, yet in some supermarkets it’s totally lax but they escape sanction as they’re seen as essential.
The only way to have gotten on top of this second wave would be a national circuit breaker lockdown and that’s what was advised but ignored. Half-term would’ve been a good time as well but that ship has now sailed.
 
blueparrot said:
It may we'll know when we know but there is nothing to suggest we will need a new vaccine every year like flu. There was an explanation on here posted by @SWP's back months ago that explained very well why the covid virus isn't as complicated as the flu one and not as liable to changes that would require a different vaccine.
People should wait for the science instead of guessing.
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good to hear that from SWP back I missed that post.

If we all just waited for the science before we posted this thread would be an awful lot shorter.
 
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