COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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cleavers said:
There was one borough at 1385 (can't remember which), but these numbers are 6 days ago too.
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The one I track for a reader here every evening was nearly 1000 last nigh

As I also posted last night everywhere in GM has been rising in the past week and we lost our last borough under 100 and also having nobody over 200 in that same period.

So anything based on data 6 days old is just going to get worse.

NW in that period also moved from second best to third best region (Yorks overtook it - the only area with a very low % of the new strain - 5% at last numbers).

When the new strain increases in % of cases reported as it has in the NW then rapid rise in cases follow. NW is heading straight into that firestorm sadly.
 
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grunge said:
One thing I spotted yesterday that I think is also a bit of a signal about the speed this is moving. the map on the gov website has added a new colour, a few weeks ago this maxed out at 400+, now has 800+.

View attachment 7026
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Fucking hell you’re right.

Last week purple didn’t exist on there.

Everything was green, light blue or normal blue.
 
The Black Shed said:
Mrs Shed was contacted last Friday by the Zoe track and trace app, asking if our family would like a test as part of their studies, probably because our kids are school age and she is a teacher. Went to the walk-in centre, a large white marquee tent, erected on the bare tarmac of the car park, rain running along the floor. It reminded me of those white mash tents you see on tv reports from ebola striken Africa. Anyway, the kids (and us) had to take the samples individually, we were forbidden to do them for the kids due to possible cross contamination and they coped really well. It's not easy sticking a cotton bud right up your hooter close to the blood sac and onto your tonsils which activates your gag reflex. Noice! Anyway one of the signs told everyone to self-isolate until test results have been issued, but because we had no symptoms and were invited to take a test, we haven't had to do that. And as of now, we're still waiting to hear the results, the turnaround isn't as quick as they say.
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Negative for the whole family
 
cleavers said:
There was one borough at 1385 (can't remember which), but these numbers are 6 days ago too.
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Orsett, Bulphan & Hordon-on-the-Hill, in fact the one next door Stanford west is 1529, and East Tilbury 1534.​

It's interesting that these are where Tilbury docks and the new(ish) London Gateway docks are, suggesting that it's quite possible this new variant could have been imported.
 
give it to gordon said:
Why ? Teams from tier 4 in England are still playing . Which I do find odd. In fact City are playing in a tier 4 area tonight. If I was a City player I would feel uncomfortable about that.
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It feels a bit like the West Ham game to me, my last game at the Etihad. I was wondering then if it would be the last game in a while. Didn't expect it to be this long. Tonight could be last televised game in a while too, the way things look.
 
Ban-jani said:
Fucking hell you’re right.

Last week purple didn’t exist on there.

Everything was green, light blue or normal blue.
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If you run the map backwards (slider at the top), nearly all these highest infection areas seem to originate close to large docks (Sheerness is on the Kent side), so while this new variant may have "started" in Kent, has it come from somewhere else. I'd never looked at the map that way, but it explodes 2-3 weeks ago.

Obviously it could also be down to the workers in (and around) those dock areas.
 
Eds said:
Barely any issues? Orient had to forfeit their game against Spurs, Ipswich called off games as have Peterborough. Newcastle have two players suffering from long covid, Sunderland called off games, Mahrez and Laporte caught Covid, England's cricket tour curtailed, various rugby games called off. That's off the top of my head and we have no idea what has gone on behind closed doors. We need to restrict movement of people for a few weeks and having sportsmen criss cross the country isn't sensible. We are travelling tonight to a tier 4 area where supposedly movement is already restricted yet becuase they are so called elite sportsmen they are allowed. It's madness. Shutting supermarkets might not be a bad thing but how do people eat? Delivery is feasible as they just don't have the capacity to deliver to to all. There are about 28m households in the UK and less than 4m deliveries per week available. You do the maths. Back in March, April and May supermarkets were very strict in the numbers they were letting in and asking, begging in fact for people to shop alone and not come in groups. Since June,July that's gone out of the window and now it's like a free for all except that the majority are wearing masks.
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You've mentioned about 6 teams from how many thousands of matches that have been played since it restarted. How many of those sportspeople caught covid whilst doing said sports? I can only think of the rugby club (Hull maybe?). Professional sports has had zero negative impact on the pandemic and gives people something to look forward to. The positives massively outweigh any negatives and all players and staff are tested 2 or 3 times a week at the expense of the league. There are a lot more things that should be looked at before professional sports or sport of any kind in fact.
 
cleavers said:
If you run the map backwards (slider at the top), nearly all these highest infection areas seem to originate close to large docks (Sheerness is on the Kent side), so while this new variant may have "started" in Kent, has it come from somewhere else. I'd never looked at the map that way, but it explodes 2-3 weeks ago.

Obviously it could also be down to the workers in (and around) those dock areas.
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Unlikely to be imported - it would be very unlikely to be exported from somewhere without first causing a big outbreak where it came from. What we see is what you'd expect if it originated in Kent - 85% of all COVID in Kent is now this variant(!) No knowledge of it existing anywhere else in the world, and you'd expect it to out-compete other variants very rapidly. (the South African variant mentioned is actually different, but shares a common feature which may be significant in its behaviour).

Usual caveat - this assumes the initial findings pan out.

Speculation is that an immunocompromised patient may have incubated the virus for a lot longer than normal patients, giving time for mutations. But I think it's speculation really.
 
cleavers said:
Why's that ?
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Because in his eyes the world is about to end. He has also predicted that even if we lockdown fully now we will have 8 times the daily number of deaths as we have today in 2 weeks, lets see if that's correct as well. There will probably be 500 reported today with it being a Tuesday, so that will be 8,000 a day by New Year. I'm starting to think he is Neil Ferguson.
 
cleavers said:
Why's that ?
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Lockdown stopping footie and/or outbreaks stopping footie. 1% plus of the population getting infected every week in parts of the country now, and we can expect that to at least double (cases today reflect infections about a week ago).

If it gets like that nationwide, I can't see footie carrying on.
 
True_Blue69 said:
He has also predicted that even if we lockdown fully now we will have 8 times the daily number of deaths as we have today in 2 weeks, lets see if that's correct as well.
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No, that's not what said. Read more carefully. If there's a specific assumption I made you disagree with, say why.
 
It’s all a load of bollocks really. Country is fucked. In ten months 35,000 miles travelled and hundreds of people interacted with and none of us have been ill or died. Running the country for nothing or at least until they find a way to tax it....
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Unlikely to be imported - it would be very unlikely to be exported from somewhere without first causing a big outbreak where it came from. What we see is what you'd expect if it originated in Kent - 85% of all COVID in Kent is now this variant(!) No knowledge of it existing anywhere else in the world, and you'd expect it to out-compete other variants very rapidly. (the South African variant mentioned is actually different, but shares a common feature which may be significant in its behaviour).

Usual caveat - this assumes the initial findings pan out.

Speculation is that an immunocompromised patient may have incubated the virus for a lot longer than normal patients, giving time for mutations. But I think it's speculation really.
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Fair enough, I was rather speculating, but the jump from Kent to that part of London/Essex isn't obviously from transport, as there are no routes other than via central London (even the Dartford crossing is a good distance), where even now cases are relatively lighter than elsewhere to the east of London.

On the map, the first places to go from blue to purple are close to Sheerness, also some of these ships are at sea for a long time, with crews in relatively close contact, so is it possible for a new variant to develop whist at sea ? We know from the early days of the pandemic that it spread quickly on ships (both cruise and some naval ships).
 
roubaixtuesday said:
No, that's not what said. Read more carefully. If there's a specific assumption I made you disagree with, say why.
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You said this:

Even if we impose a total lock down right away, we can already expect very roughly
- reported cases to at least double
- deaths to increase 8 fold

These are from infections that have already happened

Have I misinterpreted what you meant?
 
True_Blue69 said:
Because in his eyes the world is about to end. He has also predicted that even if we lockdown fully now we will have 8 times the daily number of deaths as we have today in 2 weeks, lets see if that's correct as well. There will probably be 500 reported today with it being a Tuesday, so that will be 8,000 a day by New Year. I'm starting to think he is Neil Ferguson.
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There were plenty in here a couple of months ago denying that there would be a second wave to be fair ;-)
 
The UK has recorded another 36,804 confirmed cases of coronavirus - the highest daily increase since the pandemic began.

This compares with 33,364 new infections on Monday and also tops the 35,928 on Sunday, which was a record.

Another 691 deaths within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test have also been recorded, government data shows.

news.sky.com

COVID-19: UK records highest daily increase in cases and another 691 deaths

The rise in cases is being blamed on a new and faster-spreading variant of the virus, which plunged much of England into Tier 4.
news.sky.com news.sky.com
 
kaz7 said:
The UK has recorded another 36,804 confirmed cases of coronavirus - the highest daily increase since the pandemic began.

This compares with 33,364 new infections on Monday and also tops the 35,928 on Sunday, which was a record.

Another 691 deaths within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test have also been recorded, government data shows.

news.sky.com

COVID-19: UK records highest daily increase in cases and another 691 deaths

The rise in cases is being blamed on a new and faster-spreading variant of the virus, which plunged much of England into Tier 4.
news.sky.com news.sky.com
Click to expand...

Makes grim reading even if it is a Tuesday where numbers are worse. Rough couple of weeks ahead.
 
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