COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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True_Blue69 said:
Have I misinterpreted what you meant?
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Yes, note the bold below particularly. New variant cases are still a low fraction in most of the country, and you'd expect deaths currently from new variant cases to be much lower again - delay from diagnosis to death. If, say, just 5% of deaths (that equates to ~25 daily nationwide) are currently caused by the new variant then even an eight fold increase only takes that up to ~200. So that's what's in the pipeline.

Also, note the caveats on early data and disease severity.

And its three doublings, not two for a factor of eight.

Caveats aside, what this shows is that urgent and decisive action is needed, now, nationwide. *If* we do that now, it may not get worse than this sort of outcome. If we wait until Boxing day, it's doubled again. If we wait until new year, it's quadrupled.

All very approximate and uncertain, and I may of course made some error here. Please point it out if so.

Caveats: All only for the new variant cases, not the total (though the majority in London already are). Assuming disease severity unchanged and the early data on the new variant holds up.
 
Regional scoreboard today - EVERYONE rising.

LONDON 10, 201 up from 9458

EAST 4575 up from 4052

SOUTH EAST 6220 - up from 5522


20, 996 total cases from these southern regions out of 32, 288 cases in England.


MIDLANDS 2283 - up from 1854

NORTH EAST 1253 - up from 1108

YORKSHIRE 1612 - up from 1535


And NORTH WEST 2358 - up from 2270.

Up and still the most outside the south but the North West had one of the smallest increases today. Pro rata the least.
 
We’ll probably announce a lockdown in the next couple of days to start after Xmas day, communications will be dreadful as ever but it won’t be any later than other parts of the UK to lockdown.

Johnson probably thinks we don’t want to hear the news before Christmas or something daft like that.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Yes, I think that's all consistent.
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I hope someone somewhere is studying the data around those port areas, and why it exploded over 2 weeks close to them all. If it was only 1 port I'd probably not have noticed it, but three ports on separate sides of a wide estuary, with seemingly little or no connection, other than by ship (or long winded connection), it seemed odd to me.

I've no idea if these three major ports have closer connections perhaps through tugs, or some other use, I doubt ships would dock at one port, and then another, as they all serve London (and UK), so I assume they have different owners competing with each other.
 
Claytop said:
We’ll probably announce a lockdown in the next couple of days to start after Xmas day, communications will be dreadful as ever but it won’t be any later than other parts of the UK to lockdown.

Johnson probably thinks we don’t want to hear the news before Christmas or something daft like that.
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To be fair, when he gives a few days notice people moan that it encourages people to go out and party before being locked up. When he announces with a few hours notice people moan they've no time to prepare. I prefer a bit of time. ive a business to run. But I agree it will probably be Boxing Day
 
Spending like a drunken sailor at the start of the pandemic has also now come back to bite this government on the arse.

There is literally no cash wiggle room to throw at the ramifications of a much-needed further lockdown.

They have been hedging bets and dithering as a result, knowing deep down what they have needed to do since November.

We can't afford another lockdown, but we can't afford not to, otherwise we will have people dying hand over fist in the coming weeks, it's a simple as that.

The sobering reality is that the economy is already tanked, certainly in terms of a rapid recovery, job prospects and expecting our kids and their kids to be paying it back until the pips squeak?

The amount of money printed in the last year would probably have been enough to have handed every household that needed it £20k to keep them going throughout this traumatic period, thus not putting people in conflicted situations about working in harms way and trying to sustain feeding their families and paying bills.

I have read a few economists this week suggesting we will not be able to move forward again unless we press the reset button on finances and do something akin to debt forgiveness of the Roman Empire.

Maybe Rome is already burning?
 
James Annan is a modeller who's been very critical of some of the work published. He's got an excellent model using Baysian inference which is the most convincing simple mathematical description of the progress of the epidemic I've seen anywhere. It has been published too.

His take:

The summary is, yes it's real, yes it's serious, and the early signs are that it could be very difficult to maintain any semblance of suppression in the next month or two

There' some fairly dense stuff in his blog post if you want to see more of the details.

julesandjames.blogspot.com

The new variant

The summary is, yes it's real, yes it's serious, and the early signs are that it could be very difficult to maintain any semblance of suppre...
julesandjames.blogspot.com julesandjames.blogspot.com

I guess I'm trying to convey the sense of consensus there seems in the scientific community that what we do know, uncertainties notwithstanding, justifies urgent and decisive action because: this variant has clear potential to outrun our vaccination programme.

Stay home blues.
 
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