Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Healdplace said:
I see that a study into the B. 1. 1. 7 variant as caught by (if I understood rightly) NBA players or staff in the US might explain our current stubborn cases plateauing.

Seems to suggest instead of a higher viral load causing problems this might be down to persistence of infection.

So if you get it you tend to have a hard time getting rid of it though it seems not to make you any more sick as such.

If that study is true then it might suggest why we are plateauing but hospitalisations are still going down - a strain that turns up in tests even weeks after you caught it much as if you caught it this week. But no more likely to put you in hospital.

I would imagine a high infectivity rate has more advantage to a virus in survival terms than a high fatality rate would,

Perhaps the end game will be to morph into a virus that almost anyone can catch but almost nobody will die from. Much as the vaccines attempt to persuade it to do.

Do not know the science well enough to know if that might be what is happening
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Good insight. I often wondered if we were seeing the same individuals showing up in the positive test numbers day-to-day, or even week-to week, possibly those in key worker roles getting tested regularly.

The Covid numbers where I live in Sheffield hardly seemed to move from c200 a day since Christmas, in contrast with the rest of the country, but has reduced rapidly in February.
 
Worth remembering that while 12k a day is a lot, which is what we're at now, an infection fatality rate of 1%(a realistic estimate, if a tad high) should only produce about 120 deaths a day. A lot of people yes, but considerably lower than now. And that's literally without the vaccine effect! If the vaccines work, even if cases plateau around this level we should be seeing below 100 deaths a day 3 weeks from now when we catch up to the effects of where the cases are. If not notably lower. Fingers crossed. That's without the weather improving too etc.
 
Healdplace said:
I see that a study into the B. 1. 1. 7 variant as caught by (if I understood rightly) NBA players or staff in the US might explain our current stubborn cases plateauing.

Seems to suggest instead of a higher viral load causing problems this might be down to persistence of infection.

So if you get it you tend to have a hard time getting rid of it though it seems not to make you any more sick as such.

If that study is true then it might suggest why we are plateauing but hospitalisations are still going down - a strain that turns up in tests even weeks after you caught it much as if you caught it this week. But no more likely to put you in hospital.

I would imagine a high infectivity rate has more advantage to a virus in survival terms than a high fatality rate would,

Perhaps the end game will be to morph into a virus that almost anyone can catch but almost nobody will die from. Much as the vaccines attempt to persuade it to do.

Do not know the science well enough to know if that might be what is happening
Click to expand...

I don't think the maths would work out that way.

There would be a plateau at the peak, but once falling exponentially as it has been, it wouldn't then plateau mid-fall.

Lots of possible causes, most plausible to me is unfortunately the least palatable - that we're down to areas where restrictions aren't being followed (not necessarily at the fault of the residents) and the numbers there are stubbornly high, and have been all along. I could well be entirely wrong though!
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I don't think the maths would work out that way.

There would be a plateau at the peak, but once falling exponentially as it has been, it wouldn't then plateau mid-fall.

Lots of possible causes, most plausible to me is unfortunately the least palatable - that we're down to areas where restrictions aren't being followed (not necessarily at the fault of the residents) and the numbers there are stubbornly high, and have been all along. I could well be entirely wrong though!
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I wondered this, have we now reduced off the excess cases of misbehaviour or bad luck and now we're getting down to the cases generated by a hugely increased amount of people in the workplace, the swapping of childcare duties, bubbles and so on and so, the baseline data of a more lenient lockdown

That's if it's plateaud yet, would surely need another week or two to judge that
 
According to the Zoe App the GM borough active cases as of today are:-



Bolton 937 (140)

Bury 580 (61)

Manchester 2703 (140)

Oldham 626 (39)

Rochdale 1343 (69)

Salford 2569 (86)

Stockport 298 (74)

Tameside 751 (50)

Trafford 380 (37)

Wigan 644 (68)


I am not sure how that makes any real sense compared to the actual numbers reported today.

Alongside I put the actual number for each borough in brackets from today coming from testing

Yet Zoe App seems to get close to the case numbers day to day pretty well - 13, 628 predicted this morning just 910 out.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I don't think the maths would work out that way.

There would be a plateau at the peak, but once falling exponentially as it has been, it wouldn't then plateau mid-fall.

Lots of possible causes, most plausible to me is unfortunately the least palatable - that we're down to areas where restrictions aren't being followed (not necessarily at the fault of the residents) and the numbers there are stubbornly high, and have been all along. I could well be entirely wrong though!
Click to expand...
If true what are Trafford doing right that Bolton is not? The two extremes of GM at present. Which they have been for a week or two now so not a one off set of data. Whilst Trafford WAS high round Christmas that at the time we speculated maybe partly due to Trafford Centre Christmas shopping.
 
shemnel said:
I wondered this, have we now reduced off the excess cases of misbehaviour or bad luck and now we're getting down to the cases generated by a hugely increased amount of people in the workplace, the swapping of childcare duties, bubbles and so on and so, the baseline data of a more lenient lockdown

That's if it's plateaud yet, would surely need another week or two to judge that
Click to expand...

possibly some truth in that. The last March 3 week lockdown was brutal. That may be why and how we got it so low. Possible that may not be possible again and it will stay “at a level” during vaccine roll out?
 
worsleyweb said:
possibly some truth in that. The last March 3 week lockdown was brutal. That may be why and how we got it so low. Possible that may not be possible again and it will stay “at a level” during vaccine roll out?
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Yes that may be why the government are being cautious about coming out of restrictions. They are going to have a hard time managing expectations versus realism as to what can be done given the fatigue of the community.

Playing for time hoping they can bring on their supersubs Pfizer and Zeneca to bag the winner in the last minute.
 
Healdplace said:
I see that a study into the B. 1. 1. 7 variant as caught by (if I understood rightly) NBA players or staff in the US might explain our current stubborn cases plateauing.

Seems to suggest instead of a higher viral load causing problems this might be down to persistence of infection.

So if you get it you tend to have a hard time getting rid of it though it seems not to make you any more sick as such.

If that study is true then it might suggest why we are plateauing but hospitalisations are still going down - a strain that turns up in tests even weeks after you caught it much as if you caught it this week. But no more likely to put you in hospital.

I would imagine a high infectivity rate has more advantage to a virus in survival terms than a high fatality rate would,

Perhaps the end game will be to morph into a virus that almost anyone can catch but almost nobody will die from. Much as the vaccines attempt to persuade it to do.

Do not know the science well enough to know if that might be what is happening
Click to expand...
What do you mean by 'our stubborn cases plateauing'?

The trend is firmly down when viewed as a moving average. I note the gradient of decline is not quite so negative as it was. If that is what you are referring to I would say it could be down to the UK variant becoming the predominant strain so that the R rate for the the infection as a whole is edging upwards. We should expect that but obviously that will soon be capped when UK Covid becomes 100% Kent variant.
 
Healdplace said:
According to the Zoe App the GM borough active cases as of today are:-



Bolton 937 (140)

Bury 580 (61)

Manchester 2703 (140)

Oldham 626 (39)

Rochdale 1343 (69)

Salford 2569 (86)

Stockport 298 (74)

Tameside 751 (50)

Trafford 380 (37)

Wigan 644 (68)


I am not sure how that makes any real sense compared to the actual numbers reported today.

Alongside I put the actual number for each borough in brackets from today coming from testing

Yet Zoe App seems to get close to the case numbers day to day pretty well - 13, 628 predicted this morning just 910 out.
Click to expand...

I'm in Cheshire East and the Zoe numbers have been weird. No obvious trend since November, and then numbers fallen off a cliff this week.

Screenshot_20210217-200327_COVID Symptom Study.jpg
 
worsleyweb said:
possibly some truth in that. The last March 3 week lockdown was brutal. That may be why and how we got it so low. Possible that may not be possible again and it will stay “at a level” during vaccine roll out?
Click to expand...

The epidemiology doesn't really work like that, I think.

Restrictions either reduce cases, or cases rise.

It's not a case of a set of restrictions causes a particular level - they rather define whether whatever the current level either increases or decreases.
 
And last post before the match, if you think current anti vaxxers, covidiots and the like are bad, it was worse in 1719!

 
Internal Whitehall plans :


further education could be back in mid-April, and non-essential shops will reopen at the same time.

Then, in late April, hospitality venues, hotels, leisure facilities and some sporting venues will open their doors.

Entertainment venues and sporting facilities would follow in early May.
 
Got a bit of a moral dilemma tonight.... i work as a psychotherapist and got an email tonight from the BACP - the regulator saying I can jump the queue and get a vaccine because I work with lots of vulnerable people. Will sleep on it... but not sure I want to jump the queue - I have no underlying health concerns so my instinct is to wait my turn... Any views?
 
nmc said:
Got a bit of a moral dilemma tonight.... i work as a psychotherapist and got an email tonight from the BACP - the regulator saying I can jump the queue and get a vaccine because I work with lots of vulnerable people. Will sleep on it... but not sure I want to jump the queue - I have no underlying health concerns so my instinct is to wait my turn... Any views?
Click to expand...
Your a very considerate human being is my view
 
nmc said:
Got a bit of a moral dilemma tonight.... i work as a psychotherapist and got an email tonight from the BACP - the regulator saying I can jump the queue and get a vaccine because I work with lots of vulnerable people. Will sleep on it... but not sure I want to jump the queue - I have no underlying health concerns so my instinct is to wait my turn... Any views?
Click to expand...
Get it done, you'll treat less people if you get CV.
 
nmc said:
Got a bit of a moral dilemma tonight.... i work as a psychotherapist and got an email tonight from the BACP - the regulator saying I can jump the queue and get a vaccine because I work with lots of vulnerable people. Will sleep on it... but not sure I want to jump the queue - I have no underlying health concerns so my instinct is to wait my turn... Any views?
Click to expand...
But you’re not ‘jumping the queue’ are you? You are offered it to protect the people you work with.
 
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