Where are all the Brexiteers? Metal Biker et al? Is it just me, or do or other people wonder where the fuck they have gone, as the predicted shit has hit the fan? My bet is they are sitting in their room, fondling their new Blue Passport. £5.6b lost. Now, I'm not an accountant, but that seems like a lot.
The numbers don’t look that much of an outlier compared to the first lockdown so it’s impossible to offer any form of clear rationale given there are several potential factors at play, brexit (including stockpiling), lockdowns and the health of the respective economies to name a couple.
What we can try and do is make some educated guesses on the back of a fag packet.
Imports from EU are equally impacted (£6.6bn) whereas exports to the RoW are steady and imports from RoW are marginally down.
Main drivers for reduced imports from EU are machinery, transport (including cars) and chemicals. Machinery and Transport/cars will be down to the economic health. Chemicals could be due to stockpiling or increased bureaucracy, probably the former if I was to offer an opinion.
Similarly main drivers for reduced exports to EU include cars and chemicals, including pharmaceuticals. Similar reasons for the imports will apply here (and would more likely point to a narrative of stockpiling on chemicals). Seafood is down £0.7bn and that can be exclusively be blamed on brexit (as people still need to eat irrespective of lockdowns...ok maybe less shellfish if restaurants closed but let’s keep it simple and say it’s all down to brexit).
Given exports (specially in the chemical space) to the RoW aren’t down I’d probably say the evidence does point to pre-brexit stockpiling as the likely cause here.
So there you have it, 80% of the reduced export value is most likely down to stockpiling/ economic health due to COVID and the remaining 20% are issues around exporting live stock (mostly fish/shellfish). They are saying it’s taking 3 days to export to France now compared with same day before. Hopefully that will improve “tout suite” as they say in France.
As shit as that is for the fishing industry it’s a bit early to be saying the shit has hit the fan....however much you want to be proven right about brexit.