Coronavirus (2021) thread

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GM numbers are edging up a little. But not a disaster.

323 today of the 566 NW total = 57.1% Down from 60.4% yesterday. And 62.6% on Sunday.

So this is actually a good step in the right direction for GM, Largely thanks to Bolton of course going down.

Manchester up again to 55 Wigan and Oldham well up to new recent highs of 34.

Salford and Rochdale on 21 and 20.

Bury a little better too on 14

Stockport 13 and Trafford improves on 10.

Only Tameside yet again under here at 5.
 
Healdplace said:
GM numbers are edging up a little. But not a disaster.

323 today of the 566 NW total = 57.1% Down from 60.4% yesterday. And 62.6% on Sunday.

So this is actually a good step in the right direction for GM, Largely thanks to Bolton of course going down.

Manchester up again to 55 Wigan and Oldham well up to new recent highs of 34.

Salford and Rochdale on 21 and 20.

Bury a little better too on 14

Stockport 13 and Trafford improves on 10.

Only Tameside yet again under here at 5.
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Correct me if I'm wrong but new variants aside wouldn't numbers have increased due to more mixing and things opening up? I guess the critical criteria will be hospitalisations and deaths.
 
Sadly the hospital data in England is not great - and North West has the worst if it as you would expect.

Patients are DOWN 32 on yesterday (the fall was 49 last week). The result is that there are more people in hospital today than a week ago for the first time since January. 749 v 765 today. Small numbers but these are edging up over the past week or so.

Worse still ventilators are up 4 to 117 and that too is now up 3 week to week fro m 114.

As for the regional split Midlands does the best with 20 less patients to 134 and one less ventilator at 14.

Yorkshire falls below 100 in hospital dropping 10 to 98 but up 2 ventilatirs to 19

Sadly NW stays at 174 patients - which is OK but that is v a fall of 10 last week. and WK to WK NW is up from 142.
Also ventilators are up in NW by 2 to 22 - it was 18 last week.

NW and Yorkshire were 2 or 3 week ago pretty even in numbers, falling and NW a little more than Yorkshire. The variant has hit NW worse though as the daily case numbers show and now we have in Yorkshire 98 patients and falling versus NW 174 and rising.

Admissions also show the same thing. These were 77 versus 59 last week. And NW admitted the most on the day 22 versus 16 last week.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Flu virus has a lot lower R number than corona. So if you suppress corona, you suppress flu even more - it's essentially disappeared almost worldwide. But once we lift restrictions, it'll be back as usual I guess.
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Not as usual surely, as there will be far fewer infected people to start with (though guessing which strain to vaccinate against may be less easy).

On the other hand, we will have less natural immunity to all sorts of diseases because of all the disinfection.
 
paulchapo said:
Correct me if I'm wrong but new variants aside wouldn't numbers have increased due to more mixing and things opening up? I guess the critical criteria will be hospitalisations and deaths.
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Yes, of course, I agree that would be true and why I post relative increases and hospital data versus the other regions so you can see if the rises are spread evenly. They are not. NW is clearly drving the uptick in both. And GM is a major part of that though as my data above shows actually falling at the moment as a percentage of the NW.
 
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roubaixtuesday said:
How do you think lockdown will affect that?
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In the last 12 months, there has been a remarkable reduction in paediatric respiratory viral infections as cases of (RSV) which have risen consistently since 2015, were non-existent.
Typically RSV, flu and pneumonavirus are the most common winter infections for children with RSV having infected most children by the time they are 3. An ever increasing number of these children have obviously never been exposed to these viruses. When the prevalence of these viruses increase, as they will in the autumn and winter, more children will be at risk of acute infection and a hospital admission. All the children who would normally be admitted to hospital will obviously be admitted to hospital but a years worth of 'haven't had RSV yet but will get it' children may also be admited to hospital, at the same time.
 
Healdplace said:
Sadly the hospital data in England is not great - and North West has the worst if it as you would expect.

Patients are DOWN 32 on yesterday (the fall was 49 last week). The result is that there are more people in hospital today than a week ago for the first time since January. 749 v 765 today. Small numbers but these are edging up over the past week or so.

Worse still ventilators are up 4 to 117 and that too is now up 3 week to week fro m 114.

As for the regional split Midlands does the best with 20 less patients to 134 and one less ventilator at 14.

Yorkshire falls below 100 in hospital dropping 10 to 98 but up 2 ventilatirs to 19

Sadly NW stays at 174 patients - which is OK but that is v a fall of 10 last week. and WK to WK NW is up from 142.
Also ventilators are up in NW by 2 to 22 - it was 18 last week.

NW and Yorkshire were 2 or 3 week ago pretty even in numbers, falling and NW a little more than Yorkshire. The variant has hit NW worse though as the daily case numbers show and now we have in Yorkshire 98 patients and falling versus NW 174 and rising.

Admissions also show the same thing. These were 77 versus 59 last week. And NW admitted the most on the day 22 versus 16 last week.
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Hi Healdplace, do they give figures for those admitted who have had the vaccine. Surely they must record this.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
I wonder how many currently in hospital and ICU have declined the vaccine? Definite Darwin award candidates.
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There is always going to be a small number of vaccinated patients who still fall ill with Covid and who then go on to die.
They could also be ‘positive’ patients but be in ICU for a variety of other reasons, completely unrelated to Covid.
 
paulchapo said:
This makes no sense to me. Did the flu virus put it's feet up and go on a holiday for 14 months saying, "Okay Corona I've done my shift, your turn now!"
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People socially distanced, worse masks, washed hands and didn’t go to fucking work to infect every other cûnt in the office.

Oh and @Armaan you scouse supporting bin dipping fuck, I see you still “like” any posts that suggests covid isn’t real. Why don’t you fuck off to the QAnon forums you sad cum bubble.
 
ZOE APP

2408 cases predicted - up 95 (was up 54 to 2493) It seems to be working well

Symptomatic cases top 40K - 40, 122 - up 774 on day. Steadily rising now after months of falling.


NORTH WEST NUMBERS



(Predicted active cases / Estimated cases per million population locally / Both V yesterday)


TAMESIDE 2153 / 9620 V 550 / 2459

ASTOUNDING HERE FROM ZOE - A GIGANTIC RISE - MAKING TAMESIDE THE WORST IN THE UK.

This makes no sense Tameside cases have been 1 - 3 - 13 -5 - 12 - 4 - 7 - 5 in the past week.

Nothing remotely suggesting Tameside is not only the new Bolton or Bury but way over their numbers. And even above Abereeen in Scotland and Stratford on Avon which are the biggest otherwise.

If Zoe gets this one right in coming days they really are onto something.
 
ZOE APP - OTHER NUMBERS


(Predicted active cases / Estimated cases per million population locally / Both V yesterday)


BURY 869 / 4610 V 1088 / 5771 A decent fall.

BOLTON 984 / 3472 V 1211 / 4273 - Also down a bit and still below Bury.

MANCHESTER 1530 / 2805 V 1909 / 3501 - a good fall here since yesterday takes the city down a tier.


Other GM Areas:- doing better



OLDHAM 62 / 263 V 80 / 344 - happily still going down here. Yet it had 34 cases today. Its highest in weeks!

ROCHDALE 61/ 278 V 51 / 234 edging up again today - though its cases fell and are well below Oldham

SALFORD 48 / 188 V 53 / 209 another small fall here

STOCKPORT 81 / 279 V 98 / 339 - a fall again

TRAFFORD 118 / 504 V 73 / 310 - well up for second day today.

WIGAN 111 / 343 V 125 / 387 V 109 / 335 - a small fall
 
SWP's back said:
People socially distanced, worse masks, washed hands and didn’t go to fucking work to infect every other cûnt in the office.

Oh and @Armaan you scouse supporting bin dipping fuck, I see you still “like” any posts that suggests covid isn’t real. Why don’t you fuck off to the QAnon forums you sad cum bubble.
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I get all that but people were still mixing, for it to as good as disappear is still a bit strange. I'm not a covid denier, I've had both jabs and know people who've had it. I might think sections of the government have used it financially to their advantage but that's not for this thread

I've no idea why you chose my post to have a go at somebody else in such an aggressive way, please do that directly, whatever somebody else believes is nothing to do with me. Such aggression even in words never ends well
 
When you look at it in the round here are the last 8 days of cases in the UK


2412 - 2696 - 2874 - 2829 - 2694 - 2235 - 2439 - 2493

That is not an exponentially rising pandemic. It looks remarkably stable.

These cases are coming from fluctuating tests that vary from 484,000 to 1, 164, 000 pillar 1 & 2 tests.

A huge difference yet you woud be very hard pressed to see the difference as the numbers found seem very stable.

Indeed the highest cases number in that list comes from the day with lowest testing number,

And the lowest cases number comes from the day with the highest testing!
 
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paulchapo said:
I get all that but people were still mixing, for it to as good as disappear is still a bit strange. I'm not a covid denier, I've had both jabs and know people who've had it. I might think sections of the government have used it financially to their advantage but that's not for this thread

I've no idea why you chose my post to have a go at somebody else in such an aggressive way, please do that directly, whatever somebody else believes is nothing to do with me. Such aggression even in words never ends well
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I did it directly. I @‘d him.

At least it’s simply written words on a forum, how badly can that end? But I’m over covid deniers, I’ve lost a family member, the father of a very good friend who I had known since I was in reception class at primary school and seen the stress it and put on my mate’s wife who’s a consultant on an AandE ward. I listened to her stories of never seeing so many people die in such a short space of time.

He’s lucky he gets to remain hidden on here because there’s plenty of people I know that would spark him and the likes of Ian Brown clean out if they dared spout such shite in the real world.

And no, it’s not strange at all that it more or less disappeared given the lock downs and awareness of hygiene. Not even remotely.
 
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The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
In the last 12 months, there has been a remarkable reduction in paediatric respiratory viral infections as cases of (RSV) which have risen consistently since 2015, were non-existent.
Typically RSV, flu and pneumonavirus are the most common winter infections for children with RSV having infected most children by the time they are 3. An ever increasing number of these children have obviously never been exposed to these viruses. When the prevalence of these viruses increase, as they will in the autumn and winter, more children will be at risk of acute infection and a hospital admission. All the children who would normally be admitted to hospital will obviously be admitted to hospital but a years worth of 'haven't had RSV yet but will get it' children may also be admited to hospital, at the same time.
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Ah, fair enough, see where you're coming from.
 
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