Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Healdplace said:
When you look at it in the round here are the last 8 days of cases in the UK


2412 - 2696 - 2874 - 2829 - 2694 - 2235 - 2439 - 2493

That is not an exponentially rising pandemic. It looks remarkably stable.
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It's exactly what you'd expect if there was a new variant taking over, with an exponentially rising wave to come as it emerged from the noise.

It's also exactly what you would expect if a new variant had just been seeded into new communities, but unable to spread too widely due to constantly increasing immunity from vaccination.

And it's also exactly what you'd expect to see as a short plateau from relaxation on an overall downward trajectory.

We just can't tell yet. Hopefully one of the latter two.
 
SWP's back said:
I did it directly. I @‘d him.

At least it’s simply written words on a forum, how badly can that end? But I’m over covid deniers, I’ve lost a family member, the father of a very good friend who I had known since I was in reception class at primary school and seen the stress it and put on my mate’s wife who’s a consultant on an AandE ward. I listened to her stories of never seeing so many people die in such a short space of time.

He’s lucky he gets to remain hidden on here because there’s plenty of people I know that would spark him and the likes of Ian Brown clean out if they dared spout such shite in the real world.

And no, it’s not strange at all that it more or less disappeared given the lock downs and awareness of hygiene. Not even remotely.
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I know that not sure why on my post.

No it's quite aggressive words and every action has a reaction. Some people take it very personally and it can end badly, not that I want it to of course. I'm sorry for your loss. I have a friend I went to school with who works at a crematorium who lost two cousins to it and she said she's never been so busy.

Extra hygiene and lockdowns helped but for there to be almost zero is still surprising. Maybe a pointer for the future, I got fed up of copping bad flu, especially after flights
 
NB:- NOT DOING THE USUAL REGIONAL LIST OR THE GM LIST TONIGHT (I did a summary earlier for that reason). LAST WEEK WAS THE DAY OF NEGATIVE NUMBERS SO THINGS ARE COMPROMISED UNTIL TOMORROW. THE NUMBERS BELOW ARE IMPACTED BY THE SAME ISSUE SO RISES ARE PARTLY CAUSED BY BEING VERSUS A NEGATIVE NUMBER SO THAT RISE WK TO WK MAY SEEM HIGHER THAN EXPECTED TODAY



GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.




Bolton 432 / 335 / UP 97 Testing positive 10.1%

Manchester 71 / 41 / UP 30 Testing positive 9.8%

Bury 67 / 36 / UP 31 Testing positive 9.2%

Rochdale 58 / 34 / UP 24 Testing positive 9.8 %

Wigan 54 / 29/ UP 25 Testing positive 9.0%

Trafford 52 / 31 / UP 21 Testing positive 7.1 %

Oldham 46 / 16 / UP 30 Testing positive 9.9%

Salford 43 / 24 / UP 19 Testing positive 9.1%

Stockport 25 / 23 / UP 2 Testing positive 7.2%

Tameside 22 / 20 UP 2 Testing positive 8.2



Good news today as Bolton's Pop Score FALLS again and its week to week rise falls below 100. It has benefited from the negative numbers unlike the others readjusting upwards as Bolton did not get a negative number last week for obvious reasons.

The gap from Bolton to the rest falls to 361 partly accelerated by the above factor but may well close daily now. Depends if they fall faster than others rise.

Stockport lost its top spot via the negative number impact (itr had the most last week and Tameide had none) so that helped Tameside a lot today. But both these boroughs fared easily the best from the radjustment and are acyually now further ahead of the boroughs above them who mostly rose quite a bit. Everyome is up week to week because of the readjustment but at 2 Tameside and Stockport are well ahead of the rest where the readjustment impacted them a lot as their numbers in the past week are rising anyway so both things added together todauy.

Stockport also gained another 1 on Trafford from the readjustment and is 113 behind in overall Pop Score through the entire pandemic today.

Things will revert to normal from here on. Reflecting the true weekly ups and downs more accurately.

But seeing Tameside where it is versus the dire Zoe App story today making Tameside THE single most infected place in all of UK look like Zoe is having a mid life crisis.

We will see!
 
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paulchapo said:
No it's quite aggressive words and every action has a reaction. Some people take it very personally and it can end badly
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It’s aggressive words yes but that’s all they can be. There’s more chance of me shagging Margot Robbie than knowingly bumping into the undercover scouse twat, sadly.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
Hi Healdplace, do they give figures for those admitted who have had the vaccine. Surely they must record this.
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The pessimistic worrier in me (I know, I know but I find voicing these worries and having them shouted down as nonsense on here by people better informed than myself is strangely reassuring) thinks that they already know these figures as it can't be that hard to collate but they don't want to release them. I'm sure if 99% of the ones being admitted were unvaxinated then they'd be shouting this from the rooftops. The fact they aren't is concerning.
There we go. Pile on please!
 
True_Blue69 said:
From reading people on here you wouldn’t have thought so. Never ending messages about how no one is following the rules over the past 15 months.
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If the restrictions were sufficient to just suppress corona (R~3) then you'd expect them to essentially eliminate flu (R~1.5).

Which is exactly what happened, worldwide.
 
Bluemoon dan said:
I'm sure if 99% of the ones being admitted were unvaxinated then they'd be shouting this from the rooftops. The fact they aren't is concerning.
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You're probably right on the spin, but it shouldn't be concerning.

Vaccines aren't absolutely effective, and modelling suggests you'd actually see more vaccinated than unvaccinated in hospital in another wave.

Just because a small percentage of the large number of vaccinated people is still a large number.
 
paulchapo said:
This makes no sense to me. Did the flu virus put it's feet up and go on a holiday for 14 months saying, "Okay Corona I've done my shift, your turn now!"
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Pretty much, according to my doctor mate, and he's quite high up the chain.

People being locked in/away, it had a real impact on the amount of flu in circulation, so they believe it will come back with a vengeance.
 
Bluemoon dan said:
The pessimistic worrier in me (I know, I know but I find voicing these worries and having them shouted down as nonsense on here by people better informed than myself is strangely reassuring) thinks that they already know these figures as it can't be that hard to collate but they don't want to release them. I'm sure if 99% of the ones being admitted were unvaxinated then they'd be shouting this from the rooftops. The fact they aren't is concerning.
There we go. Pile on please!
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I think Hancock has already released some figures but they were vague. Are you sugesting that they dont want to release the figures as they do not back up the claims of how effective the vaccine is against the indian variant. I find that hard to believe.
 
Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-




Tameside 49 Stockport 74, Oldham 109, Salford 111, Trafford 122, Rochdale 128, Bury 128, Wigan 178, Manchester 396, Bolton 1243.

ALL THESE NUMBERS ARE UP THANKS BOTH TO CASE NUMBERS GOING UP ANYWAY PLUS THE REMOVAL OF LAST WEEKS MINUS SCORES FROM THE 7 DAY TOTAL. NORMALITY FROM TOMORROW.

WELL ALL BAR TAMESIDE.

As you can see it bumped most of GM over 100 and Manchester to only anout a third of Bolton as Bolton falls, Manchester rises and the negative number that Manchester had and Bolton did not 7 days ago works through.

But again seeing Tameside WELL clear as lowest weekly cases on the day Zoe says it is THE most infected borough in the entire UK is mystifying.
 
HOSPITAL DATA



Summary:

Patients fall by 32 in England and 34 UK. Last week the England fall was 49. Small numbers but good as this is they are now going the wrong way as for the first time since January patients UP week to week by small amount.

Ventilators rose also in England and the UK.

NW patients are well up week to week and ventilators too. So NW is in hospital terms refecting its high case load.

Where we go as the week progresses will still tell us a lot.



UK total:




Patients DOWN 34 to 925 - it was 39, 248 at the peak on 18 Jan - (fall of 38, 323 in 127 days) :- lowest since 13 September

Ventilators UP 6 to 126 it was 4077 at the peak on 24 Jan - (fall of 3951 in 121 days) :


England only:-


ADMISSIONS:-

77 Covid admissions following 75, 85, 98, 93, 90, 74, 59 in the week before.

Covid admission numbers in England still under 100. But there is a move upward wk to wk.




PATIENTS:-

Patients down 32 to 765 v 749 last week :- First week to week rise since January

Peak was 34, 336 on 18 Jan (fall 33, 571 in 127 days)

Ventilators: UP 4 to 117 v 114 last week :- also rising now.

Peak was 3736 on 24 Jan (fall 3619 in 121 days)



Regions:


Patient // Ventilators // change in past day to today and v last week


East down 4 to 39 v 47 // Stays at 5 v 4

London Down 2 to 242 v 245 // UP 2 to 49 v 47

Midlands Down 20 to 134 v 134 // Down 1 to 14 v 17

NE & Yorks Down 10 to 98 v 108 // UP 2 to 19 v 19

North West Stays at 174 v 142// UP 2 to 22 v 18

South East Down 1 to 55 v 57 // Down 1 to 5 v 6

South West UP 5 to 23 v 16// Stays at 3 v 3
 
They should report on percent of tests positive. They tested our local primary with fast tests, every kid. They found 34 so now our town looks really high. God knows how many were false positives & how that compares to other schools? The bubble thing in classes is pointless because they all mix out of school now anyway.

If you’ve had your 2 jabs are you ever going to be safer? CV19 is not going to just disappear.

if we had seasonal flu testing on the “oh there’s a lot of that going around” virus, we’d probably be horrified and wouldnt leave the house. We’ve had flu seasons that have killed tens of thousands more than average but didn’t blink. Did you get a flu jab for that (if you weren’t posteda free one)? Probably not. I see the Daily Mail has the next of the 13,200 variants named ready to scared everyone “triple mutant flu spike bastard”. Funny how only a handful of variants have been named, the press like naming them because they become a thing to attach fear to.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
I think Hancock has already released some figures but they were vague. Are you sugesting that they dont want to release the figures as they do not back up the claims of how effective the vaccine is against the indian variant. I find that hard to believe.
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That was what the negative part of my brain was telling me yes. However I've just caught up with the last episode of Taskmaster in the meantime and am feeling much better about things now I've had a good laugh so happy to put that part back in its box for now!
 
Healdplace said:
Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-




Tameside 49 Stockport 74, Oldham 109, Salford 111, Trafford 122, Rochdale 128, Bury 128, Wigan 178, Manchester 396, Bolton 1243.

ALL THESE NUMBERS ARE UP THANKS BOTH TO CASE NUMBERS GOING UP ANYWAY PLUS THE REMOVAL OF LAST WEEKS MINUS SCORES FROM THE 7 DAY TOTAL. NORMALITY FROM TOMORROW.

WELL ALL BAR TAMESIDE.

As you can see it bumped most of GM over 100 and Manchester to only anout a third of Bolton as Bolton falls, Manchester rises and the negative number that Manchester had and Bolton did not 7 days ago works through.

But again seeing Tameside WELL clear as lowest weekly cases on the day Zoe says it is THE most infected borough in the entire UK is mystifying.
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Anecdotal evidence suggests Tameside has excellent vaccine take up
 
The thing about this Government is they are consistent in their incompetence. The Indian variant is being allowed to spread by advisory statements or use ‘common sense .. rather than lockdowns . I think they have they have decided that it is beyond control and just hope the vaccines work,especially for the vulnerable. If the hospitals reach the stage when they can’t cope again ( particularly the impact on other illnesses) then they will have to lockdown again. About July/August i guess. Then who knows? The Lancet research and prediction early on was ... that people who contracted the .... 80% would have mild or no symptoms. 10% would feel like shit (like flu) but be ok. 5% would be hospitalised but recover. 5% would snuff it.... usually the very elderly or people with health conditions. This was the pre vaccine assessment. This leads me to the only conclusion......, a large glass of Malbec. ! Cheers
 
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