Coronavirus (2021) thread

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ctwrd said:
Anecdotal evidence suggests Tameside has excellent vaccine take up
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Yes I would expect so. Zoe's rapid rise there to the worst in the UK is utterly incompatible with any data so far in GM. In fact the reverse. Zoe got both Bolton and Bury ahead of the 5 day figures so we do need to be careful but to get to twice as bad as Bolton was from next to nothing now will take a giant rise.

My guess is Zoe has limited data in Tameside and is extrapolating big from small daily changes.

We will soon find out.

But Bolton is certainly showing positive signs so if that can be driven down by mass testing and ramping up vaccinating then we should be able to manage anything.

Tameside did 3899 jabs in 48 hours on 18/19 May but has slowed a lot. Just 1874 in the 5 days since.

Total 130, 984 jabs so far.

68.2% have had 1 jab and 42.2% have had both.

Stockport is better at 70.6% for 1 jab and 46% for both.

Bolton is at 68.4% ist jab and 40.4% both - so still behind both Tameside and Stockport

Manchester is much further behind now at 47.9% first (less than half!) and 25.6% both.

I know age may be a factor but those numbers look very low for the biggest borough in GM

Liverpool is on 56.3% first and 35.7% both.

Well up on Manchester but way behind Stockport.

Very mixed data here.
 
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Having watched this thread for a while now,and seeing some of the data that's put on its all very interesting and good work to you that provide it.
Now this has probably been covered earlier, but my question is here, what is the end game?.
And by that I'm guessing now most of the adult over 30s population will of received there first dose,and most of the more vulnerable over 50s will have had both now.
So with as I understand it that you a very unlikely to become very ill to the point of been on an intensive care ward, when in people's opinions do we say, right folks we have now done all we can covid is never going to disappear and we will all have to learn to live with it.
I appreciate that this will be more personal to people that have lost loved ones through this I really do.
But surly at some point soon if it is not to be the June date we have to say, life now returns to normality as much as it can and we all have to take some personal responsibility for our self's and unfortunately you may catch covid, but the chances are you will be no more effected than if you come down with the flu.
It's more the people that are effected massively financially that I feel sorry for and how some are living I really have no idea
At the end of this lockdown there can't be any more surly, but any way Id love to hear some of your thoughts.
 
ctwrd said:
Anecdotal evidence suggests Tameside has excellent vaccine take up
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Tameside certainly appeared to have an excellent start. I’m in Stockport, but all my family are Ashton, Hyde, Stalybridge. They were being vaccinated in December/January, when I knew of no one locally. It seems to have slowed down, but getting ahead of the game must have given them some advantage.
 
Kippax1973 said:
when in people's opinions do we say, right folks we have now done all we can covid is never going to disappear and we will all have to learn to live with it.
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Just a personal view:

In principle, when the risk of a further big spike of hospitalisations is very low, *or* when we've vaccinated as much as we can.

The problem is that the younger, currently unvaccinated, may be able to drive a wave of sufficient magnitude to hospitalise a large proportion of the small number of unvaccinated elders, and a small proportion of the larger number of vaccinated elders.

In practice, that means:

1. Hopefully late June, if spread at that time is clearly under control and/or what spread there is is only causing a small number of hospitalisations.
2. Probably when all adults have had a first vaccine dose - July sometime
3. Nearly certainly when all adults and adolescents have had a first dose - September, assuming we do actually vaccinate that population.
4. Definitely when all adults and adolescents have had a 2nd dose

Purely personal opinion.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Just a personal view:

In principle, when the risk of a further big spike of hospitalisations is very low, *or* when we've vaccinated as much as we can.

The problem is that the younger, currently unvaccinated, may be able to drive a wave of sufficient magnitude to hospitalise a large proportion of the small number of unvaccinated elders, and a small proportion of the larger number of vaccinated elders.

In practice, that means:

1. Hopefully late June, if spread at that time is clearly under control and/or what spread there is is only causing a small number of hospitalisations.
2. Probably when all adults have had a first vaccine dose - July sometime
3. Nearly certainly when all adults and adolescents have had a first dose - September, assuming we do actually vaccinate that population.
4. Definitely when all adults and adolescents have had a 2nd dose

Purely personal opinion.
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Assuming the virus behaves. It keeps changing. If those changes are benign then its purely a logistical exercise but I don't know what its potential is.
 
lunebleu said:
The thing about this Government is they are consistent in their incompetence. The Indian variant is being allowed to spread by advisory statements or use ‘common sense .. rather than lockdowns . I think they have they have decided that it is beyond control and just hope the vaccines work,especially for the vulnerable. If the hospitals reach the stage when they can’t cope again ( particularly the impact on other illnesses) then they will have to lockdown again. About July/August i guess. Then who knows? The Lancet research and prediction early on was ... that people who contracted the .... 80% would have mild or no symptoms. 10% would feel like shit (like flu) but be ok. 5% would be hospitalised but recover. 5% would snuff it.... usually the very elderly or people with health conditions. This was the pre vaccine assessment. This leads me to the only conclusion......, a large glass of Malbec. ! Cheers
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We need to be very careful when referring to these studies because we need to make sure that we understand what the numbers mean. The only study available on the Indian variant and vaccine effectiveness seems to show that the vaccines remained somewhat effective but less so than for previous variants.

However, what is effectiveness? If you read the study effectiveness was measured by whether someone tested positive or negative, it makes no mention whatsoever of symptom severity which is absolutely key to hospitalisations and deaths.

If the vaccines are 1% efficacious at preventing transmission but 100% efficacious at preventing symptoms then why should we care let alone consider lockdowns?
 
Marvin said:
Assuming the virus behaves. It keeps changing. If those changes are benign then its purely a logistical exercise but I don't know what its potential is.
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I'd stand by the above even if it doesn't "behave", whether that refers to immune escape, mortality changes or transmissibility changes.

Rationale:
1) COVID does not mutate rapidly by virus standards. Scientific opinion seems to anticipate at least considerable reduction in symptoms with current vaccines.
2) We can, and will, respond with modified vaccines to changes in the virus.
3) Neverending large scale societal restrictions are, even in worst case scenarios, not likely to be acceptable to populations. They aren't to me, at least.

Of course, if it mutates into the Black Death, all bets are off. But no-one expects that, and emergence of an entirely new virus is probably far more likely to result in that scenario than mutation of COVID.
 
inbetween said:
However, what is effectiveness? If you read the study effectiveness was measured by whether someone tested positive or negative, it makes no mention whatsoever of symptom severity which is absolutely key to hospitalisations and deaths.
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+many.

Lots of figures are thrown around for effectiveness without considering what the % means, or how uncertain it is. They're often used to justify preconceived ideas rather than to inform.

Some figures have been quoted for the Indian variant which on the face of it sound very concerning: first dose only 33% effective!

But if that's a 33% reduction in cases, and (pessimistically) those cases are also 33% less transmissible, then you've more than halved transmission, and thereby more than halved the R number. And that's without even considering that the effect of vaccines on hospitalisation has generally been far better than their effect on all symptoms.

And of course, the uncertainty on that 33% will be very large, given that it's observational data rather than from a controlled trial.

jab, jab, jab!
 
From the excellent New York Times, some interesting analysis of post-vaccination infection.

"By the end of April, when some 101 million Americans had been vaccinated, the C.D.C. had received 10,262 reports of breakthrough infections. A study found that of those cases, about 995 people were hospitalized and 160 had died, although not always because of Covid-19. The median age of those who died was 82."

Vaccines work.
 
unicorn said:
From the excellent New York Times, some interesting analysis of post-vaccination infection.

"By the end of April, when some 101 million Americans had been vaccinated, the C.D.C. had received 10,262 reports of breakthrough infections. A study found that of those cases, about 995 people were hospitalized and 160 had died, although not always because of Covid-19. The median age of those who died was 82."

Vaccines work.
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So that's 0.00015% i think mortality rate for the vaccinated, with a median age of death higher than average life expetancy? And people are still against being vaccinated.

In all fairness, anti-vaxxers aer more likely to die, and so are less likely to pass on their genes. This is kind of a win-win for humanity.
 
My take on the question this morning. Just an uninformed opinion.

I remember saying in here a lot around the time the vaccines were first emerging that a big problem was that people were being led to presume the point was for them to stop you catching Covid. It never was. It was always to stop you getting sick enough from Covid to need hospitalisation and/or get very sick and die meanwhile swamping the NHS by weeks in hospital as more and more patients cued up waiting for you to get better or sadly die.

Like so much of the awful messaging in this pandemic which imo has been so bad it needs an investigation - and we never learn it seems given the one in past days over what people in Bolton etc are supposed to now do - we never got across what matters about vaccinations.

They are there to mitigate severity and protect you, of course. but most importantly to protect health services that would otherwise kill millions more from things other than Covid because resources were so stretched.

This complete lack of getting the message across led to all the 'I want that one' mentality around vaccines based on which was perceived the one most likely to stop you catching Covid.

What always mattered more was if it stopped you needing to go into hospital or stay there in icu for weeks. And they all seem to be pretty darned good at doing that.

And those figures are what matter now too because cases will rise and will never be zero - ever probably - but are irrelevant in the same way we have no clue day to day how many caught flu this week or numerous other things. What matters is the hospital numbers.

Here we are still (just) under 1000 in the entire UK with Covid and just over 100 on ventilarors. Versus in January nearly 40,000 and 4000. Weeks into the spread starting of the Indian variant. If that continues without spiking upwards we probably have seen the last of the lockdowns and we will see the shut down of all the daily data presentations as when they think the time is right for us to in effect lay Covid alongside the how likely is it I will catch one of many other concerning diseases we all get prone to from adulthood onward.

The next few weeks are the key as vaccinations continue but there is good reason for optomisim we are on the downslope heading towards better times. So long as we accept - as we must - that Covid is now endemic - will go on mutating - likely will never entirely disappear - and just has to be put out of our daily thoughts as the scourge of mankind and just one more thing we need to take care over.

Next Winter I fear it is far more likely a major flu wave will hit because people will relax and flu has been suppressed by Covid in a big way globally. So the press will be filling you with Killer Flu headlines later this year. And tosh about the flu vaccines not working 100%. As they never ever have or will. Indeed the Covd ones ALL work better than the flu ones do we have every year. But nobody hides under the duvet because of thar.
 
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Wales data:

1 death - was 0 last week

28 cases - was 44 last week

0.4% - was 0.4% last week

That is under 50 cases in the entire country in the last two days.

Less than the city of Manchester on its own had just yesterday.

Wales is officially THE most vaccinated nation with more than a million living there in the world.

66.8% - ahead of Israel on 62.9%

Not a coicidence.

Scotland is third on 57.4%, England fourth on 56.7% and N Ireland sixth on 54.2%

Mongolia is in fifth, Canada in seventh, Bahrain eighth, Hungary ninth and Chile tenth.

The US is in eleventh on 49.1% Around wherw Manchester (the city) is.

I gave some GM percentages yesterday in here. Stockport is above all the nations in that list here as are a couple of other GM boroughs.
 
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Wales is officially THE most vaccinated nation with more than a million living there in the world.

66.8% - ahead of Israel on 62.9%

Not a coicidence.

Scotland is third on 57.4%, England fourth on 56.7% and N Ireland sixth on 54.2%

Mongolia is in fifth, Canada in seventh, Bahrain eighth, Hungary ninth and Chile tenth.

The US is in eleventh on 49.1% Around wherw Manchester (the city) is.

I gave some GM percentages yesterday in here. Stockport (70.6%) is above all the nations in that list here as are a couple of other GM boroughs.
 
How have Wales managed to do it so differently from the rest of the UK, and what kind of position would the rest of the UK be in now against the variant had they managed to keep up with the pace of Wales' campaign?

I don't understand these things, maybe a simple and obvious explanation to both questions which I'm missing.






Edit - ah well, here's the first part of my question answered. Anyone for question two?
 
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True_Blue69 said:
There she is again. 0 deaths and she's spreading doom again.
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People only see what they want to see.

65% of the population not fully vaccinated, 43% still to receive their first dose. Vaccines will help protect against the most vulnerable but that's a lot of unprotected people out there now freely mixing as we reopen. Many of those will be vulnerable but don't know it yet.

She's said it's concerning - I don't want to agree with her but I do.

*I realise people protected through immunity from prior infection will also assist. To what extent, I don't know.
 
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ayrshire_blue said:
546 new cases in Scotland

Only 8 of those are in people aged 65+
89 in people aged 45-64

177 in people aged 25-44
269 in people aged 0-24 (158 of these are in children aged 0-14).



The vaccines are absolutely magic.
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Worrying apparently. Very unlikely that any of those cases will end up needing serious hospital treatment looking at the demographic.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
67 hospital admissions in Scotland over the course of the past week.

85+ - 0
75-84. - 2
65-74 - 7

45-64 - 24
25-44 - 28

Under 25 - 6

These figures get updated every Wednesday so I'll try and keep an eye on them over the next couple of weeks for perhaps any trends.
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This week's hospital admission figures for comparison from the previous week.

79 admissions in total (+12)

85+: 5 (+5)
75-84: 11 (+9)
65-74: 6 (-1)

45-64: 22 (-2)
25-44: 30 (+2)

Under 25's: 5 (-1).

Notable increase in hospital admissions amongst the elderly age groups.
 
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