Coronavirus (2021) thread

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True_Blue69 said:
Bolton cases have dropped over 20% last Weds, not doubled. We have seen nothing at all in Boltom that we should be worried about.
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No but GM boroughs are rising as I suspect are other places in the NW. The region is on a big upturn. And Bolton is not really why any more as it has slowed and may even be falling. Though still much the highest in GM.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I don't disagree with any of that.

It's far too soon to know if it will hold true into the medium term.

The scenario to be concerned about is:

(1) Large outbreak in unvaccinated youth
(2) Exposes large number of vaccinated old, a small proportion of whom are still susceptible, and
(3) The smaller number of unvaccinated old, all of whom are still susceptible.

There is clearly potential for (1) from what we've seen in Bolton. This could spread nationwide very quickly, with doubling times of little more than a week observed.

We don't yet know how significant (2) and (3) will be.

I don't understand how disparaging experts like Pagel helps anything.
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I see your 3 scenarios like this:

(1) It doesn't appear to have had any real effect in terms of hospitalisations or deaths in an around Bolton - please correct me if i'm wrong there, but I haven't heard any news to suggest it. I'd wager if there was going to be a material effect on these metrics, we'd have seen signs of it by now, given elapsed time.
(2) This will never go away.
(3) This will also never go away.

There may be outbreaks, indeed I expect there to continue to be moving forwards.

I do agree that we can't know what the medium and long term holds, but then that's the same for every disease, and maybe it's just me, but i'm not one to get over concerned with ifs and buts. I'm not worried that the measles virus will randomly mutate to become resistant to extant measles vaccines, and i'm not worried about what's going on now because the results thus far give me no reason to be.
 
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Looking at the data in GM today there were 395 cases - that is up 72 on yesterday. Just 27 from Bolton.

That 72 is from a NW day to day rise of 179.


So in reality whilst GM is up a bit that is under what you would expect

Indeed the GM % of the NW total fell for the fifth straight day to just 53% of the NW total. It was 76% last week when Bolton was way up there.

For GM this means cases are only marginally up and it is other parts of the NW - not even Bolton now - that have become the problem. Places like Lancaster, Preston and East Lancashire
 
feelymcfeel said:
I see your 3 scenarios like this:

(1) It doesn't appear to have had any real effect in terms of hospitalisations or deaths in an around Bolton - please correct me if i'm wrong there, but I haven't heard any news to suggest it. I'd wager if there was going to be a material effect on these metrics, we'd have seen signs of it by now, given elapsed time.
(2) This will never go away.
(3) This will also never go away.

There may be outbreaks, indeed I expect there to continue to be moving forwards.

I do agree that we can't know what the medium and long term holds, but then that's the same for every disease, and maybe it's just me, but i'm not one to get over concerned with ifs and buts. I'm not worried that the measles virus will randomly mutate to become resistant to extant measles vaccines, and i'm not worried about this because the results thus far give me no reason to be.
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(2) and (3) will not be relevant unless there's a big outbreak.

It's too early to say yet for Bolton, but hospitalisation is already increasing significantly as I understand it.

Modelling here (amateur) - but showing potential for further wave of similar size to earlier.

 
GM is also a rise of 69 from last week to this week.

The NW rise week to week was 286. Based on Population and normal times that should have distributed to around 140 in the NW - more than double what it was.

So the NW outside of GM is very much now where the problems are.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
Cases going up, Hospital numbers going up. I think we are safe to assume this is what happens when selfish people come back from amber countries with new variants and don't follow the rules combined with the government not acting soon enough and putting countries on a red list. Where is the evidence of numbers and variants coming from India, What advice was given and when. If found to have acted incompetently people need to be sacked immediately. Its just not good enough any more. Lockdown these areas hard, shut everything non essential for three weeks, bring the army and police patrol the streets and knock on doors make sure people are self isolating. No vaccination no problem but you pay for your own hospital care if you catch covid. I am sure peoples mind set will soon change when they realise its them that are accountable for their own actions and not the rest of us. Depressing stuff all round.
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Where is the evidence of cases and hospital numbers going on? Cases and deaths have been steady now for a month.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
(2) and (3) will not be relevant unless there's a big outbreak.

It's too early to say yet for Bolton, but hospitalisation is already increasing significantly as I understand it.

Modelling here (amateur) - but showing potential for further wave of similar size to earlier.

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That's an interesting read. Do you know what he classes as a 'baseline control?' I couldn't see it in the thread. I'm also completely for vaccinating teenagers - I still can't quite get my head around why that's not a thing anyway.

And this is completely acceptable to me, which from what i understand from the tweets is we carry on as we are right now until autumn rather that until next month (again, please let me know if i've misunderstood, and mean the bottom half of that tweet, not the top bit)

 
Bozo said:
Where is the evidence of cases and hospital numbers going on?
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UKHSA data dashboard

Showing public health data across England
coronavirus.data.gov.uk coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Nationally cases up nearly 20% week on week, hospitalisation 10%.

First time this year I think both have been up week on week.

None of this is reason for despair or panic, but neither should it be ignored or minimised IMO.

Of course @Healdplace can give you much better local info.
 
feelymcfeel said:
Do you know what he classes as a 'baseline control?' I couldn't see it in the thread. I'm also completely for vaccinating teenagers - I still can't quite get my head around why that's not a thing anyway.
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"Baseline control" I think means current restrictions.

Agree re teenagers - I don't think any vaccine has yet been approved in that age group inb the UK.

The ethics of exposing children to vaccines which bring them little direct benefit is rightly a subject of debate. Personally I think it's well worth the minor risk for the reduction in likelihood of both the disease and even moreso the disruption to their lives (I have a 16yo)
 
Bozo said:
Where is the evidence of cases and hospital numbers going on? Cases and deaths have been steady now for a month.
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In this thread.

I post every single weekday the numbers from each country and a full run down of every region day to day.

If you use the search on my user name you will see the heading HOSPITAL DATA and click each post back months if you wish to track them day by day.

THey are rising but not yet dramatically.

Here is last nights report. Will post today's if my publisher gives me any time to do so this evening



HOSPITAL DATA



Summary:

Patients fall by 32 in England and 34 UK. Last week the England fall was 49. Small numbers but good as this is they are now going the wrong way as for the first time since January patients UP week to week by small amount.

Ventilators rose also in England and the UK.

NW patients are well up week to week and ventilators too. So NW is in hospital terms refecting its high case load.

Where we go as the week progresses will still tell us a lot.



UK total:




Patients DOWN 34 to 925 - it was 39, 248 at the peak on 18 Jan - (fall of 38, 323 in 127 days) :- lowest since 13 September

Ventilators UP 6 to 126 it was 4077 at the peak on 24 Jan - (fall of 3951 in 121 days) :


England only:-


ADMISSIONS:-

77 Covid admissions following 75, 85, 98, 93, 90, 74, 59 in the week before.

Covid admission numbers in England still under 100. But there is a move upward wk to wk.




PATIENTS:-

Patients down 32 to 765 v 749 last week :- First week to week rise since January

Peak was 34, 336 on 18 Jan (fall 33, 571 in 127 days)

Ventilators: UP 4 to 117 v 114 last week :- also rising now.

Peak was 3736 on 24 Jan (fall 3619 in 121 days)



Regions:


Patient // Ventilators // change in past day to today and v last week


East down 4 to 39 v 47 // Stays at 5 v 4

London Down 2 to 242 v 245 // UP 2 to 49 v 47

Midlands Down 20 to 134 v 134 // Down 1 to 14 v 17

NE & Yorks Down 10 to 98 v 108 // UP 2 to 19 v 19

North West Stays at 174 v 142// UP 2 to 22 v 18

South East Down 1 to 55 v 57 // Down 1 to 5 v 6

South West UP 5 to 23 v 16// Stays at 3 v 3
 
ZOE APP

2549 cases predicted - up 14 It was a lot more than that in reality.

Symptomatic cases top 40K - 41, 800 - up 1678 on day. Biggest daily rise in months.


NORTH WEST NUMBERS



(Predicted active cases / Estimated cases per million population locally / Both V yesterday)


TAMESIDE 1963 . 8744 V 2153 / 9620

A BIT OF A DROP BUT STILL THE WORST IN THE UK.

Tameside was again lowest cases in GM today - though it was up on 11.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
(3) The smaller number of unvaccinated old, all of whom are still susceptible.
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I really don’t get this at all - are there any old people who can’t take the vaccine for a medical reason? Or are they just saying NO for some other reason?

Matt Hancock said a couple of weeks ago that the majority of people in hospital in Bolton were actually older people who have declined the vaccine and it got me annoyed. Why pile more pressure onto the NHS after the last 18 months that they’ve had to endure by refusing a quick, free jab that’s been confirmed to offer great protection - especially after the second dosage. It’s selfish and it’s stupid.
 
ZOE APP - OTHER NUMBERS


(Predicted active cases / Estimated cases per million population locally / Both V yesterday)


BURY 999 / 5297 V 869 / 4610 A rise again today - and Bury cases today were up for real at 23.

BOLTON 571 / 2015 V 984 / 3472 - Falling again and well below Bury. Its cases were down wk to wk for real.

MANCHESTER 1451 / 2661 V 1530 / 2805 - a small fall here since yesterday takes the city down a tier. But cases up a 74 for real.


Other GM Areas:- doing better



OLDHAM 60 / 258 V 62 / 263 - happily another small fall here. And its cases halved to 19 today for real

ROCHDALE 63 / 290 V 61/ 278 edging up again today - as were real cases to 25

SALFORD 49 / 192 V 48 / 188 a tiny rise here and real cases rose to recent high of 28

STOCKPORT 75 / 260 V 81 /272 - a fall again though real cases up slightly to 15

TRAFFORD 122 ; 521 V 118 / 504 - a little up up for second day today as were cazes for real at 16.

WIGAN 95 / 294 V 111 / 343 - a good fall - though real cases up to hughest in weeks on 40.
 
Healdplace said:
No but GM boroughs are rising as I suspect are other places in the NW. The region is on a big upturn. And Bolton is not really why any more as it has slowed and may even be falling. Though still much the highest in GM.
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I was replying to a comment specifically about Bolton. The rest of GM could be the Dave next week we don’t know.

The government should stop publishing case numbers IMO, what’s the point in it now? Focus on people being admitted to hospital because of it (not with it or catching it in there), people getting seriously ill from it and the unfortunate ones who the worst happens to.
 
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