Coronavirus (2021) thread

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True_Blue69 said:
Surely barely anyone dying whilst having it is a reason to be optimistic?
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Sure, there's probably others too. The more the better!

Deaths are very erratic at the moment, low numbers.

One of the (many) unknowns is how long the lag through to deaths will be. Because the spread is in young, unvaccinated but not very vulnerable, then you need time for transmission to older cohorts *and* disease progression in those cohorts before the fatality rate of the new wave(let) can be known.

But writing this, another reason for optimism comes to mind - it's been reported that hospital stay lengths are reducing.
 
Manc in London said:
As schoolchildren and many parents are testing themselves at home, I would have thought they will not be accounted for in the number of tests unless positive. Thus, i would have thought the number of tests is considerably higher than the c600k reported.
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You would think so but they have chosen to report all the cases - even the ones that get negated by a second test as many do. They remove them from the overall data days later but not the day to day numbers which appear to be yo yoing quite a bit as I have noted a few times. And pointed out it may be why Stockport is jumping up and down.

Hopefully so if the numbers are artificially high because of tests that will be recinded that is the best outcome here.

I want to see Stockport back in single figures ASAP. For anyone to think otherwise is nuts. And the numbers leaping about has coincided with this recent change which as I say might be disproprtionstely impacting Stockport. If they are a lot of school tests as suggested these might be quite likely to get overturned later given the accuracy issues.
 
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Manc in London said:
As schoolchildren and many parents are testing themselves at home, I would have thought they will not be accounted for in the number of tests unless positive. Thus, i would have thought the number of tests is considerably higher than the c600k reported.
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Our school have impressed on kids that they should be reporting negative as well as positive tests.

Whether they do or not is another matter of course.
 
unicorn said:
Apart from live music and a packed Etihad/London Stadium and the fact that the vast majority of hospitality businesses aren't financially viable with reduced capacity and the cost of table service ?

Not being sarcastic mate, to be honest I feel life is OK, but we're far from back to normal.
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I get that.

but the footie season is over.

gigs/festival agreed. I’m missing that. But other than that its not unbearably far off normality.

for those livelihoods which have been ruined by the pandemic , then yes that’s a different story all together.
 
SWP's back said:
You are the conspiracy theorist.
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How do you work that one out? I held my hands up and says I was wrong that I didn’t think it was as bad as it turned out to be at the start. I’ve had my first vaccine, wear a mask, have pretty much stuck to the rules and never once said it was a government ploy or blamed 5G. Remember when you said you would rather have AIDS than covid?
 
ayia napa blues said:
I think the stockport cases have been due to an outbreaks in primary schools so nothing to worry about no one is getting ill I know 4 people that have tested positive this week not ill at all
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We need to know the age ranges of those testing positive in each area to make informed decisions.
 
BlueAnorak said:
We need to know the age ranges of those testing positive in each area to make informed decisions.
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As I posted last night you can see heat zone maps of the age ranges of tests per location on Gov UK. It charts these in 5 year age ranges. Visually you can it is very few people over 60 and a lot under 30 Pretty much everywhere.

I did try to post it here but it seemed to be unable to accept it, Probably my lack of know how though.
 


This is the Stockport heat map showing the age ranges of cases across the entire pandemic.

The darker the colour the worse the numbers so as you see Stockport is not a high rated area on the 5 day old data (which this uses) but may change as the 5 day data misses the period since it has gone up.

IF those cases are chopped down by retests the 5 day data will show it next week by not escalating.

The key thing to take from that is the wealth of light colours up near the top right - ages go from 0 on bottom to 90 + on top. With months across the pandemic from last March on the left to now on the far right.

It is instantly clear WHEN and in WHAT age range there were lots of cases (the dark blues, purples and black) and that right now there is none of this and you can see the whole pandemic from the erly days when the cases were in the much older ages at the top left - through last Summer which looks a lot like now - then the autumn and winter wave in the NW where most cases were far more widely spread across the age ranges - to now when cases are still low on the far right BUT you can see clearly that there is almot nothing in the very light colours up in the older age ranges where the light yellow (lowest numbers) fill the ages over 55 and where even the darkest numbers - in green - are nothing like they were but ARE towards the lower reaches on the far right. As in the really young being the main ones catching it now.

This is why cases may rise but on present data will almost certainly not lead to a wave in the way they did last year and over the winter with vulnerable people flooding hospitals and some dying.
 
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Healdplace said:
As I posted last night you can see heat zone maps of the age ranges of tests per location on Gov UK. It charts these in 5 year age ranges. Visually you can it is very few people over 60 and a lot under 30 Pretty much everywhere.

I did try to post it here but it seemed to be unable to accept it, Probably my lack of know how though.
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Thanks I will try and understand how this works without zooming in on a small age range rather than a week and report back.
 
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Basically just look at it and bottom to top is from 0 age to 90 +

And left to right from the start of the Pandemic to last week

White yellow green are low and as the colours darken through blue to purple to black numbers escalte
 

This is Bolton for comparison. Same overall picture just a lot more cases But still most of them under 50.

Look at April last year on left and you see as ages go up the colours get darker. THEN older people were dying and the older they were the more cases there were.

In the middle - last Winter - the black areas are in the middle across a wider age range.

But get to March towards toip right and the vaccinations on older age ranges are kicking in and case there start rto all but disappear.

It is visually a really beautiful picture of how we turned the pandemic around

And every place I have looked at (you can do it for your home town there) looks much the same in the general course of how things change with time across the waves to now.
 
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BlueHammer85 said:
I get that.

but the footie season is over.

gigs/festival agreed. I’m missing that. But other than that its not unbearably far off normality.

for those livelihoods which have been ruined by the pandemic , then yes that’s a different story all together.
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Agree on all that. We've got a couple months before football and the main gigging season starts, 2 months should be enough to double jab everyone who wants one.
 
Zero deaths today yet some people want to prolong the misery. Absolutely unbelievable really.
Personally I think the government will proceed for June 21st.
SAGE and the boffins cannot accept that project fear is coming to an end and its almost as if the scientists now cannot bring themselves to understand how exactly life will be.
Just get on with it please Boris.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Sure, there's probably others too. The more the better!

Deaths are very erratic at the moment, low numbers.

One of the (many) unknowns is how long the lag through to deaths will be. Because the spread is in young, unvaccinated but not very vulnerable, then you need time for transmission to older cohorts *and* disease progression in those cohorts before the fatality rate of the new wave(let) can be known.

But writing this, another reason for optimism comes to mind - it's been reported that hospital stay lengths are reducing.
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These current deaths of under 10 a day (with last couple of days skewed by Bank Holiday weekend) must relate to the period of cases when we were running at around 2,000 a day for weeks on end.

Now we have cases going up but still below 4,000, but largely in a younger unvaccinated population much less prone to lengthy hospitalisation.

That doesn't suggest deaths rocketing up to me, though obviously if 2,000 cases becomes 20,000 or worse then all bets are off.
 
BLUEMATT23 said:
Zero deaths today yet some people want to prolong the misery. Absolutely unbelievable really.
Personally I think the government will proceed for June 21st.
SAGE and the boffins cannot accept that project fear is coming to an end and its almost as if the scientists now cannot bring themselves to understand how exactly life will be.
Just get on with it please Boris.
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its great new today
but lets just hold on a little longer ? we need to get this right because am sick of people dying from covid-19
its had enough now so lets beat this once and for all
 
ancoats said:
its great new today
but lets just hold on a little longer ? we need to get this right because am sick of people dying from covid-19
its had enough now so lets beat this once and for all
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I understand but any delay is equally as fatal for the NHS waiting lists for other stuff and people's mental health.
Personally I think the scientists need to stop hogging the spotlight and we need to get on with our lives.
 
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