Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

How many people do you think are included in the death figures because they were knocked over by a bus a week after testing positive for Covid? Do you think it is more or less than the number of people who are excluded from the death figures because their test was more than a month before they lost their life?

I think the experts have said that excess deaths is the best indicator of Covid mortality so I understand we’ve done terribly on that score too, despite the heroic efforts of the NHS.

It is a balancing act and we choose (rightly I think) to identify every case where it is reasonable to argue Covid was a major factor in the death. Even if not the immediate cause.

Much better to know the true toll and what other things it triggered so we can better prepare those with similar issues than attempt not to top some gruesome league table of deaths by hiding things that may matter and try to claim bragging rights by obscuring a few deaths that might have saved other lives in future if identified.

 

[artfuldodger]

How many people do you think are included in the death figures because they were knocked over by a bus a week after testing positive for Covid? Do you think it is more or less than the number of people who are excluded from the death figures because their test was more than a month before they lost their life?

I think the experts have said that excess deaths is the best indicator of Covid mortality so I understand we’ve done terribly on that score too, despite the heroic efforts of the NHS.

A family friend died last week in hospital of lung cancer. But whilst in there he tested positive for COVID. Now will be listed as a COVID stat?

 

[carlosthejackal]

I've seen the quotes from Grant Shapps and as much as I think this government have been about as much use as a chocolate fireguard during most of this pandemic, he's being wildly mis-quoted on this. As far as I can see, he never said there will be no holidays this year - be it at home or abroad - and what he actually did say is don't go booking holidays at this moment in time. And why would anyone book a holiday right now when we're still in lockdown, aren't permitted to go on holiday as things stand, and don't know when restrictions will start to be lifted? Things will become clearer on that

A family friend died last week in hospital of lung cancer. But whilst in there he tested positive for COVID. Now will be listed as a COVID stat?

Had a similar situation with a family friend , had a list of serious medical issues , admitted into hospital and family told that the end was imminent then contracted COVID , this was then recorded as cause of death .

 

[roubaixtuesday]

A family friend died last week in hospital of lung cancer. But whilst in there he tested positive for COVID. Now will be listed as a COVID stat?

Yes as I understand it.

"Died of any cause within 28 days of a positive test" is the standard reported statistic.

Of course, there will be people like your family friend who sadly die of other causes and make an overcount.

Equally, there will be some people who are never tested and die, or die beyond 28 days, and cause an undercount.

Overall, the "within 28 days" seems to be a reasonable compromise whilst giving a simple and consistent statistic.

Overall excess deaths and deaths where COVID is mentioned on the death certificate are two other measures which are broadly consistent.

 

[splinter]

Uae uk travel bubble summer holidays looking likely

 

[Len Rum]

The deaths are deaths with Covid mentioned specifically as a causal factor as I understand it.

So classified as Covid deaths though not infrequently it will be quite arguable if that is what literally killed them.

Countries choose to be more or less transparent on this and death numbers globally are hard to directly compare for that reason. As you can easily under report if you choose. Or report everything that happened when a person has tested positive for Covid in the past month or two months in some cases. Even if it is arguable the longer the gap how directly that Covid was the literal cause.

We are on the more transparent side of this reporting - one reason numbers often seem comparatively high.

Though not the only one, of course.


The daily figures are a total of deaths from multiple dates.

Of the 494 today only 78 literally died yesterday.

The rest died on various days as far back as Christmas.

This is true every day and I did a comparative post earlier this week to show the difference it makes.

The MOST deaths in England hospitals on any date in the past month was on 19 Jan - the peak of this wave - when the number is 850 If I recall correctly.

Question regarding the death dates.
If the dates are spread out going back over time as far back as Xmas then surely it's too early to correlate the % over 80 deaths to vaccine success?

 

[Healdplace]

In England care homes 93.2% of the older residents (over 80) have had the jab.

95 % of those in the Midlands - the most successful region with North West second on 94.1%

London has reached the least care home residents at 91.6%

On a wider level only 78.4% of over 80s in London at all have had the vaccination.

Every other region is in the 90% range with South West at 96% the best.

North West has vaccinated 91.6% of all over 80.

 

[Healdplace]

Of today's 494 England hospital deaths they ranged between 27 and 103.

22 of them - aged between 51 and 87 - had no known underlying conditions.

 

[Healdplace]

Question regarding the death dates.
If the dates are spread out going back over time as far back as Xmas then surely it's too early to correlate the % over 80 deaths to vaccine success?

It is a factor of course.

But the bulk of all deaths that will be recorded for a date will be known within 5 days. Why I always refer to that number in comparison reports.

On average about 90% of the final total is recorded by that point.

Usually just ones and twos are added on now and then across multiple dates going back.

Today for instance 78 were from yesterday, 189 added to Tuesday making 245 so far for that day, 77 onto Monday to take it to 398, 39 onto Sunday to make it now 405 and 28 to Saturday to take that to 418 - the five day total.

So within a week that will only be adding the odd one or two here or there and relatively speaking this happens smoothly.

So - yes -it is not irrelevant but the majority of the reported deaths come from the past few days and so measuring broad trends - which is all we do not day to day jumps - is not really impacted much.

 

[Healdplace]

The Gov UK site is having one of its irregular moments and numbers are delayed.

Hence the waffling!

Should be soon (ish) - not a serious issue they report.

Though they also promised an update by 5 pm.