Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Marvin]

it takes 3-4 weeks from infection point to turn into deaths

It’s only these last few days infections have rocketed from 2/3000 to 5/6000 with the now Indian Variant being the dominant strain.

hopefully the vaccines are working wonders and will keep the hospitalisations and deaths at a minimum but the full picture won’t be till a few weeks.

The link between infection and hospitalisation is much weaker than it was. But there is another problem. 19 different mutations in the Indian variant have been detected by genomics testing in the UK in the time since it was tracked in the UK. These mutations include K417N which is an escape mutation and appeared in the Indian variant in Nepal. This mutation keeps happening. There will be others we have not seen yet.

Vaccines are the way out. We need to protect them although I realise that this is largely futile. It's better though to slow replication through vaccination rather than just letting it go.

Quite why this hasn't sunk in with people I don't know. There are a lot of MPs and commentators who argue that we should trust in vaccines and yes we should but we have to be aware of how they work and how the virus works.

When this started we all thought, I did anyway, that it would end when the vaccines were launched but the Kent variant was a jolt for the public and we now know that we have to manage this through until the booster vaccines finish the epidemic.

It's possible that this spikes in the UK and crashes in which case there is no decision to take. Watch Bolton. Already signs it has peaked there. Certainly the explosive growth there has stopped.

 

[splinter]

every day of jabbing brings us closer to the endgame ...broke its back now

 

[Marvin]

As posted upthread, hospitalizations are tracking cases, at ~half the rate they were before vaccination. Hopefully that will reduce, but it gives plenty of scope to have a huge impact on the NHS with another major wave.




If hospitals are full of the unvaccinated, they're still full. Which is "tough" on everyone with a non COVID condition.

A spike will become debilitating anyway. We will be forced to quarantine especially when schools re-open.

 

[Marvin]

every day of jabbing brings us closer to the endgame ...broke its back now

We'll have broken it's back when the R rate falls below 1 and stays there. but we must be close. Ultimately though whilst it's global we can still get these nasty surprises.

I hope this is the last spike before boosters end it.

 

[blue b4 the moon]

We'll have broken it's back when the R rate falls below 1 and stays there. but we must be close. Ultimately though whilst it's global we can still get these nasty surprises.

I hope this is the last spike before boosters end it.

To put it in footie terms we're playing well and 2-1 up on the hour mark but they have some unknown subs that could come on and be game changing at any time.

 

[BLUEMATT23]

Jesus christ, don't think I could cope with another lockdown.

Surely everyone now knows zero covid is not a possibility. For the sake sake of my mental health, no more lockdowns, surely vaccines was the key, if not we are fucked with endless lockdowns

I agree but I don't believe a single word this lot in charge say anymore.
Absolute clowns the lot of them.

 

[BlueAnorak]

it takes 3-4 weeks from infection point to turn into deaths

It’s only these last few days infections have rocketed from 2/3000 to 5/6000 with the now Indian Variant being the dominant strain.

hopefully the vaccines are working wonders and will keep the hospitalisations and deaths at a minimum but the full picture won’t be till a few weeks.

Hospitalisations happen within 10 days.

 

[BlueAnorak]

As posted upthread, hospitalizations are tracking cases, at ~half the rate they were before vaccination. Hopefully that will reduce, but it gives plenty of scope to have a huge impact on the NHS with another major wave.




If hospitals are full of the unvaccinated, they're still full. Which is "tough" on everyone with a non COVID condition.

The economy is the most important thing.
If we can open up, we must open up. As things stand - especially ICU admissions we need to open up. Anyone who is uncomfortable with that needs to isolate.

The only thing that should probably stay for a while is wearing masks. Anyway supermarkets and shops have given up Covid checkng if Handforth Dean was anything to go by yesterday. No enforcement of trolley cleaning, no request to use sanitizer on entry. Half the sanitizer points emty around the shops (Tesco and M&S).
It's ended and enforcement just isn't happening.

 

[splinter]

Niacin (b3) could help with those who are still suffering with long covid..worth looking into..

 

[BlueHammer85]

The economy is the most important thing.
If we can open up, we must open up. As things stand - especially ICU admissions we need to open up. Anyone who is uncomfortable with that needs to isolate.

The only thing that should probably stay for a while is wearing masks. Anyway supermarkets and shops have given up Covid checkng if Handforth Dean was anything to go by yesterday.

small shops/supermarkets- loads not bothering with masks anymore.

 

[Healdplace]

On some pointa raised here so far today.

Yes, Manchester and Salford having high student populations is at least partly why they have low vaccine rates comparatively. But also why they should be being targetted more as this is the group where this new strain is spreading atound the region.

They can do it - as I said earlier a member of my family managed to get both vaccinations before being 22 already and is a student at Salford. She qualified on a susceptibility to a condition that has not troubled her at all so they could find ways to speed up vaccinations to the ones acrually catching and spreading Delta.

However, on Andrew Marr this morning we discovered that several GM boroughs like these asking for more vaccinations to help with rising cases in young people have been seemingly rebuffed so far. So they want to do this but cannot as the distribution of vaccines outside a few showcase areas (like Bolton was) seems not as targetted as it ought to be.

Had they focused on the areas around Bolton and Blackburn fast more than 3 weeks ago (let alone 6 weeks or more ago when they really should have acted) we might have slowed this spread. But the map is showing it is now unstoppable.

If it does burn out that will happen first in GM as we have a head start on the UK where this variant is now spreading to bit by bit.

Though Bolton has indeed fallen in the past 10 days it was up yesterday both day to day and week to week for the first time in that period on a day when UK cases fell.

May just be a blip with testing and Bolton data is still hopeful. But we are not out of the woods yet. We need to watch where Bolton goes in the next few days as testing is always all over the place at weekends.

I think we will end up delaying 2 or 3 weeks. The signs for that have been pretty clear as we are still watching the hospital numbers. The key to everything now. Not cases. The vaccines have clearly changed this epidemic by a big factor as the numbers show that I posted here comparing the December wave data from a Thursday to this wave's data from last Thursday. Cases are increasing but hospitalisations and deaths are not yet doing so to anything like the same degree as then. Pre vaccine.

But as we all know there os a built in lag and as we are yet to see for sure how far this will go in the more urgent hospital data as cases climb and it may become more serious and/or deadly. Or by pass the vaccine. That is an increasing threat the more we let this spread and mutate as it will. We cannot take that risk and set us back months just for the sake of a week or two to be certain.

Given what Matt Hancock said this morning on Andrew Marr I think that is what they think too.

 

[BLUEMATT23]

Just looking at the North West increases.
The mind boggles unless I'm being really thick.
We've had an ease up of restrictions so people are mingling but we have most age groups and the vulnerable vaccinated.
Not every one has been done I know that but how the fuck is for example is Trafford up 75%, Salford and Manchester increases horrific.
How is this happening still? Is is mass testing or are the figures being manipulated?
I can't get my head around that despite millions of vaccinated people as to how some of the percentage increases are in triple figures.
The North West Region figures never seem to improve.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

The economy is the most important thing.
If we can open up, we must open up. As things stand - especially ICU admissions we need to open up. Anyone who is uncomfortable with that needs to isolate.

The only thing that should probably stay for a while is wearing masks. Anyway supermarkets and shops have given up Covid checkng if Handforth Dean was anything to go by yesterday. No enforcement of trolley cleaning, no request to use sanitizer on entry. Half the sanitizer points emty around the shops (Tesco and M&S).
It's ended and enforcement just isn't going to happen.

The enquiry, whenever it comes, must address some of these issues and whether they actually made a difference or not. Some of the strictest lockdowns have had some of the highest death rates and some of their excess rates are off the scale, whilst some places that had much lighter interventions have fared somewhat better.
Do masks make a difference, what is the collateral cost, what was the effect on all the other health issues are a few of the questions that must be answered, because there will be something else in the next few years.

I do also wonder the thought processes sometimes when we know this is a disease that affects the chronically ill and unhealthy, that we’ve shut down gyms, outdoor sports facilities and swimming pools, whilst keeping McDonald‘s, KFC and the like open almost nonstop.

This obesity and ill health driven pandemic has been in the air for over 25 years and we’ve done nothing to address it, save for making donuts cheaper and vegetables more expensive.......

 

[Healdplace]

BlueMatt It is because these are almost all unvaccinated and under 30 now catching it and spreading it. I dont think there is any manipulation. I think it is all about the susceptibility now of those whop have been low perioritised having become the epicetre.

And this is a VERY virulent new strain. Those catching it are the ones who interact openly the most and pas it on. Many at school. This is why it now looks certain schololkids will be vaccinated by the end of August. Because they would kick off the same thing in the Autumn going back to school. Hancock more or less said that on Marr this morning.

The hospitals and deaths are still low as they tend not to get as sick or sick at all mostly.

BUt they can spread it to those who might and 10% of a million young people is still the same as 30% of three million across the age ranges catching it.

To protect the NHS and let them save all the other lives from treatments put on hold we have to stop hospital numbers escalating.

This new vatriant has created a very different new wave. Nothing like the ones that came before. MOre cases. Far less deaths. Sounds almost ideal. But not as the NHS faces a huge catch up of those vulnerable from non Covid problems put on hold because of Covid. The would become casualties of just letting hospitals fill up even with milder patients with Covid less likely to die than before.

 

[Healdplace]

Not sure I really addressed the point you were making BlueMatt but I dont think data is being manipulated here.


They seem to be changing vaccination plans though on the fly reactively not pro actively.

Whether we can actually stop this variant now by delaying opening up is arguable. May well be futile. So I dont think any delay is going to be based on that factor so much. It is being sure as to exactly how much of a problem in hospitals most of the under 30s catching it would create to themselves and those older than them who might still be vulnerable.

We know there is some impact. We are are learning day by day exactly how much. Until we are sure caution is wise - especially as this variant is still changing and the more catching it the more risk it will become much more immune to the vaccines by chance.

That happens we risk going back 6 months.

Without this variant arriving in the NW then 100% we would be on track to full opening up is the sad truth. In the eventual enquiry the decision not to stop travel with India earlier will be seen as the critical error made. We may never have prevented it getting here but we would have bought the two or three months to complete full vaccination and possibly see the need to vaccinate down to 15 or so too.

We only avoided a disaster like in India because we were much more advanced in our vaccination programme by the time it got here. Had this arrived in January or February say we would have had big problems.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales data:

THIS DATA IS JUST FROM ONE DAY - FRIDAY. TOMORROW WILL BE SAT/SUN.

0 deaths - was 0 last week

92 cases - was 30 last week

0.7% poitivity - was 0.5% last week


This is the highest Sunday number from Wales in 2 months. And it is now pretty certain the Indian variant has crossed the borders into the country in rising numbers.

Unfortunately there will be ongoing increases here now in coming days.

Wales though are more fully vaccinated than England so we will see in coming weeks if that makes a difference.

 

[Healdplace]

Matt Hacock has also said today that they are now sure two doses of both vaccines 'offer the same protection' via the Delta variant as the previous one. That is good news surely?

The extra transmissability seems to be getting slowly factored down a bit too. Now at most 40% apparently. May be less.

 

[splinter]

Matt Hacock has also said today that they are now sure two doses of both vaccines 'offer the same protection' via the Delta variant as the previous one. That is good news surely?

The extra transmissability seems to be getting slowly factored down a bit too. Now at most 40% apparently. May be less.

Good news

 

[crooky]

Matt Hacock has also said today that they are now sure two doses of both vaccines 'offer the same protection' via the Delta variant as the previous one. That is good news surely?

The extra transmissability seems to be getting slowly factored down a bit too. Now at most 40% apparently. May be less.

Good news indeed.

In regards to transmissibility is that 40% over base China Covid or 40% over Kent Covid?

 

[denislawsbackheel]

Kent