Great Uncle Kip
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Ouch! This has to be related to fans congregating for the Euros etc surely. As that is a truly petrifying number!
Coronavirus (2021) thread
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Healdplace
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England hospital deaths:
11 with 6 from the NW. Again the NW is driving the increase. But other regions are just lagging as deaths will fo0llow case rises there too. They will drive these numbers up in coming weeks. Just not a lot we can hope.
Last week was 3 with 1 NW, wk before 6 with 1 and wk before 16 with 4.
The 6 in the NW were 2 Manchester, 2 East Lancashire (Blackburn etc). 1 Bolton and 1 Pennine Acute
All of the 11 deaths were in the past 5 days.
East had 1, London 2. NE & Yorkshire 2 and the others zero.
The age ranges are very notable too:
3 aged 20 - 39, 2 aged 40 - 59, 3 aged 60 - 79 and 3 over 80.
Very evenly matched. That is a big change from how it used to be.
Deaths will always be skewed to the older ages as far far fewer % will die in younger ages but they are matching the older ages because far more of the younger ages are catching it now versus the older ones balancing the equation in a noticeable way.
Might give some food for thought amongst the younger ones here not bothered about getting a jab as this is just a mild illness unless you are old and nackered.
As is obvious the ones who GOT the jab are dying now far less often than the ones still either waiting to be double vaccinated or thinking whether to 'risk it'.
11 with 6 from the NW. Again the NW is driving the increase. But other regions are just lagging as deaths will fo0llow case rises there too. They will drive these numbers up in coming weeks. Just not a lot we can hope.
Last week was 3 with 1 NW, wk before 6 with 1 and wk before 16 with 4.
The 6 in the NW were 2 Manchester, 2 East Lancashire (Blackburn etc). 1 Bolton and 1 Pennine Acute
All of the 11 deaths were in the past 5 days.
East had 1, London 2. NE & Yorkshire 2 and the others zero.
The age ranges are very notable too:
3 aged 20 - 39, 2 aged 40 - 59, 3 aged 60 - 79 and 3 over 80.
Very evenly matched. That is a big change from how it used to be.
Deaths will always be skewed to the older ages as far far fewer % will die in younger ages but they are matching the older ages because far more of the younger ages are catching it now versus the older ones balancing the equation in a noticeable way.
Might give some food for thought amongst the younger ones here not bothered about getting a jab as this is just a mild illness unless you are old and nackered.
As is obvious the ones who GOT the jab are dying now far less often than the ones still either waiting to be double vaccinated or thinking whether to 'risk it'.
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Churchlawtonblue
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Ok fair enough, I am still just struggling to see how we coukd get 4000 a day. I suspect that the vast majority in hospital are the idiots who didnt take the vaccine. If thats the case then surely transmission will peter out as the virus will run out of viable hosts sonner rather than later given the high vaccination rate.
roubaixtuesday
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OK, I pulled the data from the dashboard for UK.
Looks like 4% is reasonable to me.
(Caveat, entirely possible I've bolloxed that up somehow...)
roubaixtuesday
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I've no idea, but I guess they are either
(1) people who've refused vaccination
(2) people who are fully vaccinated, but nevertheless fall seriously ill
(3) people who are either partially vaccinated, or yet to be vaccinated
If it's mainly (1) then the ratio may fall but slowly as it will take a lot of infection to get them all
If (2) then we'd expect the ratio to be unchanged in future.
If (3) it should fall massively as we complete vaccination.
Healdplace
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In England hospitals 19 Jun and 20 Jun are BOTH at 11 deaths after 4 and 3 days data respectively. Jun 15 reached 11 at five days.
The creep upwards in England hospital deaths is small but now utterly undeniable and because this follows cases by the biggest lag (several weeks) we are only at the start of where it will go in numbers already inevitable even if cases fell to zero tomorrow. As they will not. Far more likely to keep rising for some time.
The mitigation of far less older people and far more younger people balancing the numbers will - we can reasonably expect - very dramaticlly mitigate the rise.
But we are going to see bigger death numbers in the days leading up to the in / out of restrictions decision and opening up entirely as deaths noticably rise will be a challenge to get across. As it will appear very counter intuitive.
Which is not to say they will not do it. But we cannot yet know just how high these deaths will rise and what number is acceptable. Is 100 a day a place where opening up can be sold as right when we chose to delay at numbers around 10?
These are not easy decisions.
The creep upwards in England hospital deaths is small but now utterly undeniable and because this follows cases by the biggest lag (several weeks) we are only at the start of where it will go in numbers already inevitable even if cases fell to zero tomorrow. As they will not. Far more likely to keep rising for some time.
The mitigation of far less older people and far more younger people balancing the numbers will - we can reasonably expect - very dramaticlly mitigate the rise.
But we are going to see bigger death numbers in the days leading up to the in / out of restrictions decision and opening up entirely as deaths noticably rise will be a challenge to get across. As it will appear very counter intuitive.
Which is not to say they will not do it. But we cannot yet know just how high these deaths will rise and what number is acceptable. Is 100 a day a place where opening up can be sold as right when we chose to delay at numbers around 10?
These are not easy decisions.
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i think you missed 4) that some people are catching it in hospital
Yeah, so they don't fully stop them then. I guess my point was that there is still going to be absolute tonne of cases with vaccinated people, cos even if those stats suggest 70-85% reduction, that's still 30-15% of double vaccinated who will get it anyway. That's literally millions and millions of people. I don't see why loads of cases in vaccinated people is a bad thing unless they're getting really sick. We knew this was gonna happen, right?
My point was that it isnt even close to 100% effective in stopping them. There will be absolutely loads of cases in vaccinated people. That's what we expected surely
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