Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Healdplace said:
Scotland data

Deary me - if you thought the Wales data was bad.

5 deaths - was 1 last week

2969 cases - was 1129 last week

7.3% positivity - was 3.4% last week

170 in hospital - was 171 yeterday & 133 last week

18 icu ventilators - was 18 yesterday & 15 last week


That is a very scary near tripling in the week.

But hospital numbers not as yet really changing. Though the lag means they unfortunately probably will.

Zoe got this right earlier if you look back an hour or so to my post.

It is indeed 2 or 3 times more than the NW now.

Perhaps we should send extra vaccines there urgently. They are behind on those numbers and it seems to be showing.
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Ouch! This has to be related to fans congregating for the Euros etc surely. As that is a truly petrifying number!
 
England hospital deaths:

11 with 6 from the NW. Again the NW is driving the increase. But other regions are just lagging as deaths will fo0llow case rises there too. They will drive these numbers up in coming weeks. Just not a lot we can hope.

Last week was 3 with 1 NW, wk before 6 with 1 and wk before 16 with 4.

The 6 in the NW were 2 Manchester, 2 East Lancashire (Blackburn etc). 1 Bolton and 1 Pennine Acute

All of the 11 deaths were in the past 5 days.

East had 1, London 2. NE & Yorkshire 2 and the others zero.

The age ranges are very notable too:

3 aged 20 - 39, 2 aged 40 - 59, 3 aged 60 - 79 and 3 over 80.

Very evenly matched. That is a big change from how it used to be.

Deaths will always be skewed to the older ages as far far fewer % will die in younger ages but they are matching the older ages because far more of the younger ages are catching it now versus the older ones balancing the equation in a noticeable way.

Might give some food for thought amongst the younger ones here not bothered about getting a jab as this is just a mild illness unless you are old and nackered.

As is obvious the ones who GOT the jab are dying now far less often than the ones still either waiting to be double vaccinated or thinking whether to 'risk it'.
 
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roubaixtuesday said:
Here's cases/20 (so 5%) lagged by 10 days alongside hospitalisations actuals:

View attachment 19912

From here



I've not looked at the data directly myself, could be that your 2% is more reasonable, but it would still be a problem even then.

Of course, dependent on which people are getting hospitalised, that % could fall.
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Ok fair enough, I am still just struggling to see how we coukd get 4000 a day. I suspect that the vast majority in hospital are the idiots who didnt take the vaccine. If thats the case then surely transmission will peter out as the virus will run out of viable hosts sonner rather than later given the high vaccination rate.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
we were at 10k positive tests a day a week ago, 4% would mean hospitalisation would be 400, currently its 220. So its more like 2%, So actually its more like 2000 admissions imo.
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OK, I pulled the data from the dashboard for UK.

1624455340112.png

Looks like 4% is reasonable to me.

(Caveat, entirely possible I've bolloxed that up somehow...)
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
I suspect that the vast majority in hospital are the idiots who didnt take the vaccine.
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I've no idea, but I guess they are either

(1) people who've refused vaccination
(2) people who are fully vaccinated, but nevertheless fall seriously ill
(3) people who are either partially vaccinated, or yet to be vaccinated

If it's mainly (1) then the ratio may fall but slowly as it will take a lot of infection to get them all

If (2) then we'd expect the ratio to be unchanged in future.

If (3) it should fall massively as we complete vaccination.
 
In England hospitals 19 Jun and 20 Jun are BOTH at 11 deaths after 4 and 3 days data respectively. Jun 15 reached 11 at five days.

The creep upwards in England hospital deaths is small but now utterly undeniable and because this follows cases by the biggest lag (several weeks) we are only at the start of where it will go in numbers already inevitable even if cases fell to zero tomorrow. As they will not. Far more likely to keep rising for some time.

The mitigation of far less older people and far more younger people balancing the numbers will - we can reasonably expect - very dramaticlly mitigate the rise.

But we are going to see bigger death numbers in the days leading up to the in / out of restrictions decision and opening up entirely as deaths noticably rise will be a challenge to get across. As it will appear very counter intuitive.

Which is not to say they will not do it. But we cannot yet know just how high these deaths will rise and what number is acceptable. Is 100 a day a place where opening up can be sold as right when we chose to delay at numbers around 10?

These are not easy decisions.
 
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roubaixtuesday said:
I've no idea, but I guess they are either

(1) people who've refused vaccination
(2) people who are fully vaccinated, but nevertheless fall seriously ill
(3) people who are either partially vaccinated, or yet to be vaccinated

If it's mainly (1) then the ratio may fall but slowly as it will take a lot of infection to get them all

If (2) then we'd expect the ratio to be unchanged in future.

If (3) it should fall massively as we complete vaccination.
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i think you missed 4) that some people are catching it in hospital
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Vaccinations do stop many (most with two jabs) cases and much onward transmission. The latter is very hard to quantify, but here's a table summarising for the various vaccines (I think there may be more up to date versions of similar, but it gives the general impression)

View attachment 19910

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Yeah, so they don't fully stop them then. I guess my point was that there is still going to be absolute tonne of cases with vaccinated people, cos even if those stats suggest 70-85% reduction, that's still 30-15% of double vaccinated who will get it anyway. That's literally millions and millions of people. I don't see why loads of cases in vaccinated people is a bad thing unless they're getting really sick. We knew this was gonna happen, right?
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
Ok fair enough, I am still just struggling to see how we coukd get 4000 a day. I suspect that the vast majority in hospital are the idiots who didnt take the vaccine. If thats the case then surely transmission will peter out as the virus will run out of viable hosts sonner rather than later given the high vaccination rate.
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Yeah, loads of healthy IDIOTS who choose not to take an untested vaccine are currently dying all over the country. Like to see who you blame when they lock us down again this winter when the flu returns.
 
Healdplace said:
As for Wales and eberywhere else tbh - the rise in cases is less of a concern to the other data.

20,000 cases now is nothing like 20,000 cases was in January. That is really the thing to remember.

The chain between cases ad death has been broken - not entirely but very significantly - and THAT is realky the key to where we are.

This wave is inevitable and unstoppable and In some ways letting it rip might be the best way out. IF that has a low enough hospital stress level.

Think this will factor into where we go from here now. And it may have been close to being factored into opening up already. But we had to hope and see that the worst wave numer scenarios wer not likely to be met. And whilst we are obviously going to see cases rise - especially outside the NW and Scotland who likely will be coming out of this as other places still peak - we might yet cope.

Andy Burnham might be considering banning travel INTO Greater Manchester in a week or two.
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Correct. 0.1% fatality rate in the ‘3rd wave’ compared to anything from 0.5 to 1 in the first and 2nd shows that.
 
Northern Ireland data:

0 deaths - was 0 last week

188 cases - was 143 last week

7.4% positivity - was 5.8% last week

3 care home outbreaks - was 3 yesterday& 2 last week.

1143 rolling weekly cases total - was 1122 yesterday & 765 last week

17 patients - was 13 yesterday (biggest daily jump in weeks here) & 16 last week (first rise in some time too)

0 ventilated - was 0 yesterday & last week.


A GE RANGES OF THE LAST 7 DAY CASES


0 - 19 (400) 35.0%

20 - 39 (473) 41.4%

40 - 59 ( 222) 19.4%

60 - 79 (42) 3.7%

80 PLUS (5) 0.5%


The now recurring pattern - very few over 60 catching it,nearly 20 times as many ARE catching it under 40 and quite probably most of those under 30. Though there has been a small drift up in the 40 - 59 age group from double vaccinated there probably deciding enough is enough and mixing more regardless.
 
grunge said:
Untested??.. what you sniffing.
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Sorry, I forgot it wasn’t rushed through. Not actually arguing against the vaccine anyway. Just that people should have a choice and also once 90% are double jabbed they’ll still be taking loads of our freedoms away once the flu returns late Autumn.
 
So the deaths for the four nations with out of hospital England to add are today 17. Last week it was 9. Wk before 6.

And cases today from the 3 nations with England to come are 3370 - which is the most in many months. It hardly got much bigger than that last Winter.

Last week the number was 1413 - a really huge jump in a week.

All eyes on England now because if that follows anything like this pattern there will be some big numbers to report in an hour or so.
 
Craig said:
Sorry, I forgot it wasn’t rushed through. Not actually arguing against the vaccine anyway. Just that people should have a choice and also once 90% are double jabbed they’ll still be taking loads of our freedoms away once the flu returns late Autumn.
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nothing was rushed tho, 40 odd vaccines were started, they went through all the same tests as any other, and is the most scrutinised set of vaccines in history in terms of results of those trials/tests and administering effects. only 5 or 6 vaccines came out the other end of those trials for one reason or another.

I doubt we'll hit 90%, we're at 81% single dose now. if we hit %90 thats good going.

as for winter, there's only been 1 person mention anything about a potential lockdown in winter so I wouldn't take any of that too seriously just yet.

they will probably blitz out as many flu jabs soon ( like they did last year ) as well to make sure the system isn't overloaded, well as much as we can.
 
Scotland

2969 cases

58 in people aged 65+
325 aged 45-64

Then the HUGE jump

1013 aged 25-44
772 aged 20-24

339 aged 15-19
451 aged 0-14

******************

5 deaths

2 aged 85+
2 aged 75-84
1 aged 45-64

*******************

Vaccines

17k first doses
14k second doses
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
Ok fair enough, I am still just struggling to see how we coukd get 4000 a day. I suspect that the vast majority in hospital are the idiots who didnt take the vaccine. If thats the case then surely transmission will peter out as the virus will run out of viable hosts sonner rather than later given the high vaccination rate.
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The idiots who wouldn’t take the vaccine have transmitted it (probably through family) to student populations in big cities. It’s not going to peter out for a long time. The politicians decide whether we live with it or not.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
Scotland

2969 cases

58 in people aged 65+
325 aged 45-64

Then the HUGE jump

1013 aged 25-44
772 aged 20-24

339 aged 15-19
451 aged 0-14

******************

5 deaths

2 aged 85+
2 aged 75-84
1 aged 45-64

*******************

Vaccines

17k first doses
14k second doses
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These fookers will be responsible for a surge in London too!
 
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