Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Marvin]

The problem with this thought process is that even if every single restriction is removed on 19th of July and we go back to a December 2019 kind of lifestyle, it isn't 'after Covid'.

As in, its not actually gone. Infact it's likely to be as rife as ever with very high case numbers at that point, some people can pretend it's gone and live like it's gone but it's absolutely not, so for others that means they have to proceed with caution.

Then we go back to what's actually being asked for here, it's not that the original poster wants everyone double jabbed before football stadiums can be full, or before household number restrictions are removed, she's simply asking for a period where we continue to wear masks so that she can do the very basic aspects of life in the current situation - go to the shops, use transport to get to where she needs to go, until such times more people are double jabbed and case levels are hopefully under control.

I understand its a risk for her to visit the shops just now even with mask wearing, but really what is the point in increasing that risk and doesn't her request seem fair at all to you?

What is the difference in hospitalisations and deaths from an epidemic that spikes and one that is broad but low i.e. never hits the same heights but rolls on longer? It could be that there is no difference.

IMO whilst we had the prospect of vaccines, restrictions made sense. But now 95% of those who are going to be vaccinated so the case for restrictions gets weaker imo.

It needs to be modelled over the long term to see what is the best route. Before we knew for certain that social distancing and restrictions would control and reduce deaths. Now I think you might just get two different curves with similar areas underneath them.

 

[unicorn]

people won’t be arrested for wearing a mask you can still wear them if you want to.

it’s called common sense . If I am on the tram and it’s packed I will probably wear a mask , if it’s reasonably empty I won’t.

they are a pain in the arse if you wear glasses . As soon as you go indoors mask on glasses steam up and social distancing out of the window as I just bump into everything!

Yesterday on here, I mentioned how much of a pain I found wearing masks (I take my glasses off when shopping) but I'm not advocating scrapping masks till medical experts tell me it's safe to do so. I can cope getting into pubs, but I'm not convinced I'd want to return to the Etihad in August (Citizen not STH) wearing a mask for 2 hours.

Ahead of tonight's press conference about "personal responsibility" my main concern would be that my not wearing masks in essential settings like public transport and shops would make it difficult for the vulnerable to continue to live semi-normally. Not an easy debate.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

Yesterday on here, I mentioned how much of a pain I found wearing masks (I take my glasses off when shopping) but I'm not advocating scrapping masks till medical experts tell me it's safe to do so. I can cope getting into pubs, but I'm not convinced I'd want to return to the Etihad in August (Citizen not STH) wearing a mask for 2 hours.

Ahead of tonight's press conference about "personal responsibility" my main concern would be that my not wearing masks in essential settings like public transport and shops would make it difficult for the vulnerable to continue to live semi-normally. Not an easy debate.

i honestly think the govt may say it’s upto individuals and not mandatory to wear masks but say it’s up to shop owners and business owners to apply their own rules if they want to so…

metrolink May still require it , or certain supermarkets and shops on entry so I think they will still be a thing for a while to come.

 

[Del_Bosque]

what kind of numbers of people are actually immunocompromised and can't have the vaccine?

It's a rough deal for them, but I'm not going to lie I won't be wearing a mask ever again after the 19th July. I hate it, but I don't use public transport or go food shopping often so not really a big deal.

 

[PannickAtTheDisco]

i honestly think the govt may say it’s upto individuals and not mandatory to wear masks but say it’s up to shop owners and business owners to apply their own rules if they want to so…

metrolink May still require it , or certain supermarkets and shops on entry so I think they will still be a thing for a while to come.

just give the less savoury types in society an excuse to get uppity to civilised folk and provoke issues that people don't deserve to suffer. It's going to get nasty with so many grey areas and masks are pointless without community compliance.

 

[PannickAtTheDisco]

what kind of numbers of people are actually immunocompromised and can't have the vaccine?

It's a rough deal for them, but I'm not going to lie I won't be wearing a mask ever again after the 19th July. I hate it, but I don't use public transport or go food shopping often so not really a big deal.

2 of my immediate family members for a start, but that's the hand life has dealt and they still go to work so unfortunately some people are always going to have to live with a higher risk. The world ain't fair so make the most of the time you've got. They're comfortable with their position and I see it as I could as much drop like Christian Eriksen completely unexpectedly as them catch Covid and be seriously ill, you only fear what you're aware can kill you but you learn to live with it.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Yesterday on here, I mentioned how much of a pain I found wearing masks (I take my glasses off when shopping) but I'm not advocating scrapping masks till medical experts tell me it's safe to do so. I can cope getting into pubs, but I'm not convinced I'd want to return to the Etihad in August (Citizen not STH) wearing a mask for 2 hours.

Ahead of tonight's press conference about "personal responsibility" my main concern would be that my not wearing masks in essential settings like public transport and shops would make it difficult for the vulnerable to continue to live semi-normally. Not an easy debate.

I’ve been going back to the rugby league and once you are in the stand or seated you can take off your mask and get behind the team. You can obviously take off your mask to have a pre or half time drink on designated concourses. It’s quite relaxed

 

[Marvin]

Long term we need an air filtration system in buildings and transport that can filter and sterilise the air. A lot of people will have developed phobias about social contact. Whatever the rights and wrongs of it, it will lead to changes in public behaviour that could impact on cities, transport, shopping, building regs etc

 

[grunge]

Long term we need an air filtration system in buildings and transport that can filter and sterilise the air. A lot of people will have developed phobias about social contact. Whatever the rights and wrongs of it, it will lead to changes in public behaviour that could impact on cities, transport, shopping, building regs etc

This would be a good step. Air con with HEPA filtration and maybe UV filtering.

 

[BlueAnorak]

I'm really confused with the whole thing now.

When we were talking about removing all the restrictions a few months ago, I was expecting that we would have the vast majority of people double vaccinated. I also expected that case numbers would be low and staying low - similar to how they were last year.

Obviously the delta variant has come along, but we're going to remove all the restrictions in a couple of weeks with a large number of cases. We will probably "only" have around 70-75% of people double vaccinated too. I'm no expert, but this doesn't seem ideal conditions for removing the restrictions?

Let me say that I honestly can't wait for the restrictions to go, I really can't. I hate wearing a mask (even though I do everywhere), self isolation is really annoying, the constant school bubble popping causes me a lot of stress at home and work. I've seen my childs classes postponed, cancelled and you can see how much time it's taken to get back up to speed when they've re-opened. Going to pubs is a hassle and I've missed going away this year. It's been a really difficult year and I really don't want another lockdown. I will be really annoyed if we have another one.

As I see it, in a couple of weeks we could be getting towards 40k of new cases per day. With the restrictions gone, I can only see this increasing. I wouldn't be surprised to see it going MUCH higher soon after. It will lead to more people in hospital and it surely creates more chances for new variants to appear? If nothing else, we're going to expose lots of people to long Covid too and we seem to be quite happy to expose kids to Covid no problem.

As I said, I want the restrictions gone I really do but I don't understand why the 19th is the deadline date? I can't see any logic in it at all.

If the previous link with deaths is gone as low as it appears to be, and hospitalisations are mostly only for less than a week (mainly oxygen for breathing problems) then Delta Covid, with the vaccination levels we have, would appear to be much less severe than a normal flu season.
Can a case really be made to prolong current restrictions that will damage the economy for this?

 

[BlueAnorak]

If we're more or less done with vaccinations what do we gain by maintaining restrictions? I am open to argument.

If it stops spreading only when we hit a certain level of immunity, then you have a choice beteeen a high narrow peak and a broad low peak with the same number of cases and deaths. For me it depends on how many more people we can vaccinate. Once we hit that I don't get what the benefit is to maintaining restrictions. I'd change my mind if we vaccinated children but that doesn't seem likely and maybe those jabs would be better used overseas.

I think you are right to be alarmed at the potential spread post 19th July if we haven't peaked by then.

It totally depends on medium and long term hospitalisations (> 7 days) and deaths.
As things stand the data for retaining the vast restrictions just isn't there.
Wearing masks on public transport and in shops to protect people at risk is about it.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Long term we need an air filtration system in buildings and transport that can filter and sterilise the air. A lot of people will have developed phobias about social contact. Whatever the rights and wrongs of it, it will lead to changes in public behaviour that could impact on cities, transport, shopping, building regs etc

Undoubtedly. Building ventilation regs need major overhaul. Especially in hospitals where the largest proportion of transmissions resulting in death have occurred (something like 40% off the top of my head - i need to dig out the report to confirm).

 

[roubaixtuesday]

.

Delta Covid, with the vaccination levels we have, would appear to be much less severe than a normal flu season.

You sure about that? What's your basis? A quick google reveals



Where do you think Delta will peak? Very likely to be worse than any of these flu seasons by hospital admission (right hand scale) , I think, and a fair chance of being twice as bad.

Already worse peak than 2016/17. Not sure what you define as a "normal" flu season.

[this assumes I've interpreted that correctly, I may well not have. From here https://assets.publishing.service.g...tory_viruses_in_the_UK_2019_to_2020_FINAL.pdf ]

 

[twosips]

Well, it's certainly clearly happening regardless of what any of us think. Buckle in. This will be interesting. Bit nerve-wracking tbh. Part of me thinks we'll see a huge rise that will mercifully quickly fizzle out given we'll reach that HIT quickly, another part thinks it could end up being surprisingly bad. Heh. Fingers crossed.

 

[splinter]

I see the duchess of Cambridge self isolating at home after covid contact

 

[True_Blue69]

.


You sure about that? What's your basis? A quick google reveals

View attachment 20669

Where do you think Delta will peak? Very likely to be worse than any of these flu seasons by hospital admission (right hand scale) , I think, and a fair chance of being twice as bad.

Already worse peak than 2016/17. Not sure what you define as a "normal" flu season.

[this assumes I've interpreted that correctly, I may well not have. From here https://assets.publishing.service.g...tory_viruses_in_the_UK_2019_to_2020_FINAL.pdf ]

Either way, even with a flu season twice as bad as normal we wouldn’t even consider any restrictions. The National Medical Director has said today that the NHS can cope, that’s it then we move on.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Either way, even with a flu season twice as bad as normal we wouldn’t even consider any restrictions. The National Medical Director has said today that the NHS can cope, that’s it then we move on.

OK, so you don't agree it's "no worse than a normal flu season".

What does "can cope" mean? I mean, the NHS "coped" in January, but I certainly wouldn't advocate deliberately choosing to go back there.

I think we should be honest about the impacts and risks. Gung-ho rhetoric avoids that.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Well, it's certainly clearly happening regardless of what any of us think. Buckle in. This will be interesting. Bit nerve-wracking tbh. Part of me thinks we'll see a huge rise that will mercifully quickly fizzle out given we'll reach that HIT quickly, another part thinks it could end up being surprisingly bad. Heh. Fingers crossed.

Exactly this. Very hard to predict. Huge uncertainties on the modelling.

 

[Rammy Blue]

OK, so you don't agree it's "no worse than a normal flu season".

What does "can cope" mean? I mean, the NHS "coped" in January, but I certainly wouldn't advocate deliberately choosing to go back there.

I think we should be honest about the impacts and risks. Gung-ho rhetoric avoids that.

I saw a report yesterday that a bad flu season can be up to 20,000 deaths, whilst average was 5,000, I assume the figures were correct.

I‘d guess that covid deaths, due to the vaccinations, should be less than those figures, certainly the higher of the two; in which case as people are saying we don’t lockdown and no one talks generally about a bad flu season, so maybe that’s the way we have to head with this.

 

[twosips]

Exactly this. Very hard to predict. Huge uncertainties on the modelling.

On a small, admittedly not that important personal level, i've got no idea if my wedding will happen now lol. It's scheduled for the third week in August. I'm wondering if things could spiral out of control and they bottle it and lockdown again and i've got to cancel it all over again ha. Fuck knows.