Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Scotland data:

0 deaths - was 0 last week

2372 cases - was 3285 last week

12.6 % positivity - was 12.6% last week

THESE ARE GOOD NUMBERS COMPARATIVELY BUT LESS SO HOSPITAL DATA - STILL GOING UP

THE POSITIVITY RATE STAYING THE SAME AFTER A BIG FALL IN CASES MEANS FEWER TESTS

338 patients - was 316 yesterday & 202 last week - a worrying week to week increase

30 icu ventilated - up 5 on yesterday and from 20 last week

THESE ARE LESS GOOD NEWS
 
Oh. I'll be honest I didn't expect these rather encouraging numbers from Scotland today. Same test positivity as last week too I see at 12.6%, I do wonder if there are any caveats etc to these numbers with IT issues or processing issues or whatever but on the face of it that's a good direction to be going on, all be it only one day's data so not getting hopes up too much yet. Hospital numbers etc much less good news obviously.

Will add that I wonder if this is the effects of schools breaking up 10 days ago and the passing of effects of mass London trip for the euros now coming into play? Early days I suppose.
 
Healdplace said:
There is a bit of a rise in deaths but not at all as yet a big one. Though recall that deaths lag cases by several weeks and so the impact of this big rise in the rest of the UK is yet to be seen. Up to recently it was only the impact of the NW and Scotland we were seeing,

This is why I post a daily update of the hospital data here every evening, And the UK deaths every afternoon. And as much as we get on age ranges of cases.~

These are the key patterns we need to watch now.

They WILL rise but it is evident from NW and Scotland when the rest of the UK ticks up likely only by 2 or 3 times where we have got with them. 100 deaths and 50,000 cases and 3000 in hospital very possible at some point, But I hope not more than these upper limits.

But nobody really knows the impact of the opening up Boris is to announce at 5 pm today in a press conference on live TV. But it is obviously necessary we do tip toe into the new dawn.
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Across the UK the last 7 days week to week deaths are down by 2 not up.
 
unicorn said:
Interesting, and good to hear. At the Sheffield Crucible it was "masks on except when drinking", so Mrs RM made her large glass last 90 minutes !

You see a real mix of distancing and mask wearing on the TV games, don't you ?
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Yes. It’s such a mixture of mask wearing and not in the stands at some football games that they might as well do away with it IMHO. I’m happy to continue to wear a mask on public transport and in supermarkets though
 
Tonster said:
Across the UK the last 7 days week to week deaths are down by 2 not up.
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Having just added the latest weekend England hospital only data posted 10 mins ago - it is actually down 3 there - from the latest 'after five days' data -which was 32 in the first 3 days of a week ago and 29 in the 3 days 27 - 29 June. The latest for which we have 5 day data, of course.

This weekends data was only a modest rise. And actually the last two days there was good but data over the weekends is always tricky to define die to lower registrations.

There is as yet nothing beyond a modest rise week to week over the past month as noted when I last posted the data here a week or so ago. There has not yet been more than a few modest signs as I will report below,

But these deaths are from weeks ago when cases were well below where we are now. That will inevitably mean numbers rise. Though again as I said I am optimistic by nothing like we might fear,

I still hope we can avoid a 100 deaths in one day occurrence when that part of this wave peaks. We will see.

Undeniably the link between cases and deaths is nothing remotely like it was due to the vaccines.

Thank God,
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS OVER THE WEEKEND:

SATURDAY 20 - with 7 from the North West

SUNDAY 3 with 1 from the North West

TODAY 1 with 0 from the North West

Total 24 with 8 from NW Last weekend it was 21 with 12

So that is up as expected but in truth an improvement with the falls in the NW.

And though other regions will do a North West in coming weeks this is a good sign that death numbers are not going to escalate that much beyond now in coming weeks,

Pretty hopeful now we will avoid three figures.

DO NOT FORGET THOUGH THAT SUNDAY & MONDAY DATA IS ALWAYS LAGGED AND WILL BE ADDED TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY
 
ayrshire_blue said:
Oh. I'll be honest I didn't expect these rather encouraging numbers from Scotland today. Same test positivity as last week too I see at 12.6%, I do wonder if there are any caveats etc to these numbers with IT issues or processing issues or whatever but on the face of it that's a good direction to be going on, all be it only one day's data so not getting hopes up too much yet. Hospital numbers etc much less good news obviously.

Will add that I wonder if this is the effects of schools breaking up 10 days ago and the passing of effects of mass London trip for the euros now coming into play? Early days I suppose.
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I mentioned a few days ago that the cases would fall in Eng after schools close in mid-July. You mentioned they'd already closed in Scotland and this kind of backs up what I was saying.

Fewer kids doing tests = fewer cases detected. Figures look better and we start getting an idea of how many of these cases in the previous weeks in Scotland were symptomatic or not.
 
Healdplace said:
Having just added the latest weekend England hospital only data posted 10 mins ago - it is actually down 3 there - from the latest 'after five days' data -which was 32 in the first 3 days of a week ago and 29 in the 3 days 27 - 29 June. The latest for which we have 5 day data, of course.

This weekends data was only a modest rise. And actually the last two days there was good but data over the weekends is always tricky to define die to lower registrations.

There is as yet nothing beyond a modest rise week to week over the past month as noted when I last posted the data here a week or so ago. There has not yet been more than a few modest signs as I will report below,

But these deaths are from weeks ago when cases were well below where we are now. That will inevitably mean numbers rise. Though again as I said I am optimistic by nothing like we might fear,

I still hope we can avoid a 100 deaths in one day occurrence when that part of this wave peaks. We will see.

Undeniably the link between cases and deaths is nothing remotely like it was due to the vaccines.

Thank God,
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Sorry I was referring to deaths only. Down week to week by 2 according to gov.uk from yesterday. So even with case rises some weeks ago (not as high as now but still high) it hasn’t translated so far into deaths at all.

UKHSA data dashboard

Showing public health data across England
coronavirus.data.gov.uk coronavirus.data.gov.uk
 
twosips said:
On a small, admittedly not that important personal level, i've got no idea if my wedding will happen now lol. It's scheduled for the third week in August. I'm wondering if things could spiral out of control and they bottle it and lockdown again and i've got to cancel it all over again ha. Fuck knows.
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Fingers crossed for you (and more so for your partner who I'm sure will be very stressed).

Mine is next week. Going ahead despite the modest restrictions in place. I'll let you know how it goes. The thing stressing me now is the rain!!
 
Manchester33 said:
I mentioned a few days ago that the cases would fall in Eng after schools close in mid-July. You mentioned they'd already closed in Scotland and this kind of backs up what I was saying.

Fewer kids doing tests = fewer cases detected. Figures look better and we start getting an idea of how many of these cases in the previous weeks in Scotland were symptomatic or not.
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You did, absolutely. I said this would be a big week to test your theory and so far so good...
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Give it a rest with the complete bollocks. I think lifting further restrictions whilst cases continue to double every 10 days is unwise. If cases weren't doing that, I'd be all for it. I do think that if we lift restrictions, we should be honest about the risks. I don't see that happening.



Expert opinion seems quite diverse at the moment, reflecting the great uncertainty in what will happen.

Just for instance

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Its the Guardian? of course they will find people to criticise the government. Does anyone still read the Guardian?
 
Healdplace said:
Having just added the latest weekend England hospital only data posted 10 mins ago - it is actually down 3 there - from the latest 'after five days' data -which was 32 in the first 3 days of a week ago and 29 in the 3 days 27 - 29 June. The latest for which we have 5 day data, of course.

This weekends data was only a modest rise. And actually the last two days there was good but data over the weekends is always tricky to define die to lower registrations.

There is as yet nothing beyond a modest rise week to week over the past month as noted when I last posted the data here a week or so ago. There has not yet been more than a few modest signs as I will report below,

But these deaths are from weeks ago when cases were well below where we are now. That will inevitably mean numbers rise. Though again as I said I am optimistic by nothing like we might fear,

I still hope we can avoid a 100 deaths in one day occurrence when that part of this wave peaks. We will see.

Undeniably the link between cases and deaths is nothing remotely like it was due to the vaccines.

Thank God,
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Agree with all that. I take some reassurance that deaths in areas that experiences the cases spike first (i.e. the North West) are still seeing what I'd consider very low deaths with Covid.

For example, in the last week deaths in similarly sized Blackburn, Bolton and Bury total 3, 2, and 2, respectively.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
Oh. I'll be honest I didn't expect these rather encouraging numbers from Scotland today. Same test positivity as last week too I see at 12.6%, I do wonder if there are any caveats etc to these numbers with IT issues or processing issues or whatever but on the face of it that's a good direction to be going on, all be it only one day's data so not getting hopes up too much yet. Hospital numbers etc much less good news obviously.

Will add that I wonder if this is the effects of schools breaking up 10 days ago and the passing of effects of mass London trip for the euros now coming into play? Early days I suppose.
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Too early to say but hopefully Scotland has now peaked in terms of case numbers
 
MORE ON ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS:-

SATURDAY 20 with 7 NW - week before 18 with 10 - week before 9 with 7

SUNDAY 3 with 1 NW - week before 1 with 0 - week before 2 with 2

MONDAY 1 with 0 NW - week before 2 with 2 - week before 0 with 0


The 24 deaths by Regions: - NW 8, Midlands 4, NE & Yorkshire 4, London 3, South West 3, East 1, South East 1

In the NW the 8 deaths were East Lancashire (Blackburn) 3, Manchester 2, Pennine Acute (Oldham etc) 2 and Blackpool 1

Ages of the 24 were:

1 each in 0 - 19, 20 - 39 and 40 - 59

10 aged 60 - 79 and 11 aged 80 PLUS

One of the deaths was fron over 3 months ago.

Nearly all the others the past week

Jul 4 and 3 are still on 0

Jul 2 is on 7 after 3 days

Jul 1 is on 10 after 4 days

And June 30 is on 19 after 5 days.

This is the highest 5 day total since 25 on April 12

And the week to week comparison of the first 4 days of last wk (36) is v (48) for the first 4 days of this week,

Skewed heavily by that 19 and only coming days will tell if 30 June is an outlier and just a bad day or the coming norm in next few days.
 
Northern Ireland data:

0 deaths - was 0 last week

420 cases - was 211 last week

17% positivity - was 11.1% last week

MUCH THE SAME DOUBLING IMPACT HERE NOW TOO AS DELTA HEADS OVER THE OCEAN

7 day rolling cases total 2788 - was 1600 last week

5 Care Home Outbreaks - up 1 over weekend - was 4 last week (that these are staying low despite rising numbers is for now really good news on vaccine efficacy) In January they were over 100 at this level of cases.

32 patients - up 6 over weekend - was 16 last week

1 ventilated - was 1 Friday - and 2 last week


SIMILAR PATTERN HERE JUST A LOWER BASE NUMBER
 
M18CTID said:
Too early to say but hopefully Scotland has now peaked in terms of case numbers
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Is there something to be said that if there were no summer holidays from school then HI would likely have been reached through vaccination/infection combo in the next few weeks, but schools breaking up will actually slow it down and cause a autumn/winter spike when they return?

Not sure if that's logical or if I'm missing something important there.
 
NORTHERN IRELAND TESTING POSITIVE PAST WEEK BY AGE:

The big rise over the past week is a big test on these numbers,



0 - 19 (923) 33.1%

20 - 39 (1139) 40.9%

40 - 59 (583) 20.9%

60 - 79 (116) 4.2%

80 PLUS (27) 0.9%



As you can see there HAS been a shift as numbers have risen much as Ayrshire noticed in Scotland,

The over 60s are over 5% from under 4% a week or so back and the under 40s are under 75% having been 80% quite recently,

Obviously numbers are climbing everywhere as cases do. No surprise there.

But the biggest shift has been from school age towards the under 40s and the 40s - 60 years who are being more emboldened to go out,

Do not think this says anything to worry about or caused by changes in efficacy of the vaccine - though some of that is inevitable as they are less effective - though still very effective - versus Delta,

We need to watch these numbers as they change day to day,
~
But 27 in the most vulnerable category out of 2788 cases is still great news that we are on the right track imo.
 
twosips said:
On a small, admittedly not that important personal level, i've got no idea if my wedding will happen now lol. It's scheduled for the third week in August. I'm wondering if things could spiral out of control and they bottle it and lockdown again and i've got to cancel it all over again ha. Fuck knows.
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I will go out on a limb and say there will be no lockdown after this, if they do bring one in it'll be curtains for Bojo imo
 
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