Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

Would be interesting to see the age split now that Scottish schools are closed.

Ayrshire posts that in here every day, Give him chance.

 

[Healdplace]

Northern Ireland data:

0 deaths - was 0 last week

417 cases - was 278 last week

12.9% positivity - was 9.7% last week

5 care home outbreaks - was 5 yesterday & 4 last week

7 days rolling cases total 2883 - was 2788 yesterday & 1680 last week

37 patients - up 5 on day - was 19 last week

1 ventilated - same as yesterday - was 2 last week


BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF RISING OLDER PATIENTS IN THESE NUMBERS AS SCHOOL AGE NUMBERS ARE INEVITABLY FALLING.

SEE BELOW - WE NEED TO WATCH HOW THIS TRACKS IN COMING DAYS AS IT IS PARTLY INEVITABLE AND TO SOME DEGREE STATISTICAL WITH LOW NUMBERS

BUT OF THE 95 ADDED WEEKLY CASES SINCE YESTERDAY UNDER 20s FELL BY 31, 20 - 39s ROSE BY 97 - BY FAR THE MOST - 40 - 59 UP BY 12 AND 60 - 79s UP BY 14 AND OVER 80s UP BY 2.

SMALL NUMBERS AS LONG AS THEY STAY THAT WAY, AND STATSTICALLY INEVITABLE AS NUMBERS RISE DAILY.

THE PROPORTIONS ARE WHAT MATTER NOT THE RAW NUMBER

 

[BlueAnorak]

The thing is, if you impose restrictions like we are,

Suzannah and Richard had the bullets ready for him and he shut them right up with the stats. Fair play to him was good to see a politician answer questions honestly and factually, was impressive.

Sajid is my MP.
He always tries to answer a question. Even though he is well aware of interviewers trying to get a yes or no answer when most answers are a shade of grey.

 

[Healdplace]

Northern Ireland 2882 weekly cases by age (one age unrecorded)

0 - 19 (892) 31.0%

20 - 39 (1236) 42.9%

40 - 59 (595) 20.6%

60 - 79 (130) 4.5%

80 PLUS (29) 1.0%


This is a rise in both the two older groups taking over from the lowering of the younger age,

At 5.5% that is double what the over 60s were 3 or 4 week ago,
~
Guess we will see if that is a quirk of the stats as I know it partly will be or a problem. if it keeps going up towards a more concerning percentage.

Right now it is partly a consequence of readjustment of fewer children being tested,

And the 20 - 39 age group is rising by the most to take on the shift as you would expect,

 

[Tim of the Oak]

The thing is, if you impose restrictions like we are,

Sajid is my MP.
He always tries to answer a question. Even though he is well aware of interviewers trying to get a yes or no answer when most answers are a shade of grey.

Sajid icomes across well but hen has been talking bollocks about living with Covid will improve access to the range of healthcare services.it won’t if cases and hospitalisations increase.

I think most people would accept that we are giving sectors like hospitality, travel and leisure an opportunity to rebound. I accept the political decision to try to get back close to what was normal.

 

[Healdplace]

So todays deaths with out of hospital England to add is 39 - 12 in the NW and 6 in Scotland

It was 23 last week.


And cases with England to come are 3478 - last week it was 3677.

Last week England added 16, 802 to total

Yesterday England was on 23, 286 - its highest total since 29 January. 3 weeks after the peak - highest ever in England - on 61, 757 on 8 January,

That cases peak was about 19 days before the peak of deaths - which gives you some idea of the lag to expect between cases reported NOW and the deaths that they will cause 19 days or so from now.

In other words the deaths we are noting today are likely from cases around 17 June.

On THAT day there were 11,007 cases in the UK - 9371 of them in England.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Would be interesting to see the age split now that Scottish schools are closed.

Of 2363 cases

101 in people aged 65+
482 in people aged 45-64

798 in 25-44
977 in 0-24

That bottom group split further:

344 in 20-24
292 in 15-19
341 in 0-14

*****************

6 deaths and every single one is from an individual age category

1 aged 15-19
1 aged 25-44
1 aged 45-64
1 aged 65-74
1 aged 75-84
1 aged 85+

*****************

Vaccines

Only 10k first doses
16k second doses

 

[BlueAnorak]

I agree with the immune response through vaccination and previous covid infections is in the population, there should be in theory a buffer to prevent deaths occurring on the rate we had in January.

Deaths will get nowhere near January's numbers.
As 2 new sucessful Covid treatments are being rolled out in addition to vaccination (hopefully another one soon), I doubt deaths will get higher than normal flu deaths per day in Jan/Feb (120 in a normal year), hopefully a lot less. Most will be the unvacinated who decided to not be vaccinated when it was offered.
Anyway, we need to let it spread to give us extra community immunity for the winter variants that will be more dangerous without immunity - as Chris Whitty aluded too last night.
Vaccination has stopped the virus being a mega threat for our bodies to deal with. Each variant will be similar to a new Flu variant though it does spread a lot easier and not just in winter.
Yes, those challenged immunologicaly are at risk but they are from Flu and other viruses.

 

[BobKowalski]

The state-led restrictions are over, and the logic was spelled out yesterday albeit in code.

By code, do you mean ‘we want to spread the virus around?‘ :)

 

[BlueAnorak]

Cases rising in Israel again and the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine is apparently down about a third against the Delta variant.

Careful how you report that. Efficasy against not catching it - maybe - but the vaccine is still very efficient at preventing serious illness, hospitalisation and death.
People who get slightly ill don't spread it as badly as the unvacinated either.

Israel data reportedly shows plunge in efficacy of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine as delta variant spreads

At the same time, the decline in protection against serious cases and hospitalization is considerably milder, the Ynet news website said.

fortune.com

 

[Gabriel]

Of 2363 cases

101 in people aged 65+
482 in people aged 45-64

798 in 25-44
977 in 0-24

That bottom group split further:

344 in 20-24
292 in 15-19
341 in 0-14

*****************

6 deaths and every single one is from an individual age category

1 aged 15-19
1 aged 25-44
1 aged 45-64
1 aged 65-74
1 aged 75-84
1 aged 85+

*****************

Vaccines

Only 10k first doses
16k second doses

Thanks. In the Netherlands, 56% of the infections in the last week were in the 15-24 age group.

 

[unicorn]

A few posts about how the NW shows we should expect a rapid spike then decline nationwide.

Genuinely no idea why people think this - it doesn't seem apparent in the data.

NW region cases by specimen date from the govt dashboard.

View attachment 20725

Scotland showing some signs. *If* they have reached a peak, for comparison hospital admissions are ~1/6 of the Jan peak. If that followed for the UK as a whole, we'd peak below 1000.

It's very uncertain what will happen, but it seems unlikely the national peak will be below 50,000 cases daily. Hospitalisations peak perhaps 500-1000? But no-one knows, and the further relaxation could make those numbers a *lot* higher.

Hospitalisations peaking at 1,000 a day would be about 4 per major A & E hospital (some folk quote a thousand hospitals but many of those are community/specialist/private and incapable of accepting Covid admissions).

Doesn't sound too bad but could still knock on to urgent care in some hospitals.

 

[Healdplace]

37 all settings deaths

28, 773 cases - highest yet and up from 20, 479 last week but only up from 26, 068 the next day and been around 26/27/28 K every day since.

 

[splinter]

37 all settings deaths

28, 773 cases - highest yet and up from 20, 479 last week but only up from 26, 068 the next day and been around 26/27/28 K every day since.

I wonder how many people hadn’t taken the vaccine..get jabbed
RIP..

 

[Healdplace]

North West appears to have definitely plateaued,

Todays cases up 15 to 3960.

Last 5 days 5033 - 3997 - 3989 - 3945 - 3960 TODAY

But the better news is the GM numbers for those days:

2217 - 1703 - 1726 - 1678 - 1605 TODAY

As you see these are heading down and the proportion of the NW has been falling, Just 40.5% today, From 44% 5 days ago, It was over 50% a week or two back.

 

[Summerbuzz]

Vaccination has stopped the virus being a mega threat for our bodies to deal with. Each variant will be similar to a new Flu variant though it does spread a lot easier.

Do we know that? Hospitalisation is one thing, but debilitating Long Covid cases aren't exclusive to that.

The effect of vaccination on the prognosis of minor and moderate cases is one question I think hasn't been addressed.

And I've not read a thing on how harmful Delta may be in those terms relative to previous variants.

I've also no idea how the risk of repeated exposure to the virus is viewed.

I imagine very strongly we're looking at increased viral loads in the community - and I know this was previously associated with poor outcomes.

What of repeated exposure to the same variant? Does beating Kent then getting heavy exposure to Delta comes with any risk? What if you beat a small viral load, then get a huge one?

Difficult questions, for sure. The limited information from track and trace would seem to leave us with potential gaps in our understanding.

Surely it's far too soon for scientific opinion to be making confident judgements about that side of things, and thus the risks attached to this decision. But obviously, not too soon for a politician to start selling it on the basis that the questions aren't so much unanswered as hitherto unasked, which is the same thing as not part of the debate.

Boris made this deal to save his skin back in February. And no-one is as impatient as a Tory looking at a restriction on the economy. It's pretty much on the Tory party as much as him. It would seem they got Javid in despite Boris, and here we are. Look how much room that leaves Boris!

If it does go tits up, public opinion and the right wing of the party will end up living on different planes. Leaving the moderates to come crawling back to Boris, at which point, he just takes Javid out of the spotlight for a bit, frees up his 5 O'clock diary slots, messes up his hair a bit, and wheels out the "Uncle Boris-On-The-Telly-With-The-Vaccines" character. And presumably prorogue parliament again.

By code, do you mean ‘we want to spread the virus around?‘ :)

I think he gave it away when he said it was time for us to stop washing our hands, and for him to start.

 

[Healdplace]

I have no idea what Zoe is seeing in the Bury data to make it the worst in the UK. That has to be nonsense. Tim Spector should be looking into that obvious data error not chatting about the days news stories with Phil and Holly on This Morning. Though - seriously - it was nice to see him there,

It has had the lowest numbers in GM for days now.

Today on just 69 cases . - lowest in nearly a month,

These two - first in to seeing big cases rise - appear to be the first coming out,

Bolton too on 102 lowest in 10 days.

Mixed fortunes elsewhere - Manchester up a lot on the day but down week to week. Stockport up a little both on the day and week to week, But not much.

Salford down big week to week and down day to day and with fewer cases than Stockport for first time in a few weeks.

Oldham also below Stockport (all be it by just 1) to have its lowest numbers in a while.

Despite just an OK day for Stockport Trafford was again vey high and Stockport had another much lower Pop Score rise and is now 92 ahead of Trafford in the lowest Pop Score numbers when it was 200 behind three weeks ago,

With Wigan (still well into the 200s and up week to week) Trafford is having the most problems right now.

 

[Rammy Blue]

I have no idea what Zoe is seeing in the Bury data to make it the worst in the UK. That has to be nonsense. Tim Spector should be looking into that obvious data error not chatting about the days news stories with Phil and Holly on This Morning. Though - seriously - it was nice to see him there,

It has had the lowest numbers in GM for days now.

Today on just 69 cases . - lowest in nearly a month,

These two - first in to seeing big cases rise - appear to be the first coming out,

Bolton too on 102 lowest in 10 days.

Mixed fortunes elsewhere - Manchester up a lot on the day but down week to week. Stockport up a little both on the day and week to week, But not much.

Salford down big week to week and down day to day and with fewer cases than Stockport for first time in a few weeks.

Oldham also below Stockport (all be it by just 1) to have its lowest numbers in a while.

Despite just an OK day for Stockport Trafford was again vey high and Stockport had another much lower Pop Score rise and is now 92 ahead of Trafford in the lowest Pop Score numbers when it was 200 behind three weeks ago,

With Wigan (still well into the 200s and up week to week) Trafford is having the most problems right now.

Said yesterday, I trust Zoe more than the official figures if my experience of what Rammy is like over last week corresponds to rest of Bury, we are hammered with it.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

 

[SWP's back]

Cases rising in Israel again and the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine is apparently down about a third against the Delta variant.

Down just under 1/3 in terms of cases/infections.

Efficacy still at 93% in terms of reductions in serious cases/hospitalisations.

That latter point being the important one.