Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Be nice if true, Ancoats, but seems a touch optimistic, Whilst so many globally are unvaccinated there are surely always risks of a variant taking Delta's place as potentially even worse. We might be a bit better at slowing its spread if so but we are not going to stop it until the world has the level of protection only rich natios do so far. Though I do not understand the science to know how credible it is that Covid could just burn itself out in this way. Most experts I have heard speak of where we are headed seem to think this is not an immediate prospect
 
Healdplace said:
Be nice if true, Ancoats, but seems a touch optimistic, Whilst so many globally are unvaccinated there are surely always risks of a variant taking Delta's place as potentially even worse. We might be a bit better at slowing its spread if so but we are not going to stop it until the world has the level of protection only rich natios do so far. Though I do not understand the science to know how credible it is that Covid could just burn itself out in this way. Most experts I have heard speak of where we are headed seem to think this is not an immediate prospect
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yep lets all hope for the future young or old
i think its something to do with herd immunity and the antibodies we build up that when it mutates to many times it self destructs or something like that

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M18CTID said:
This is horrendous - over 27,000 cases in Hungary today. Their population is about one seventh of the UK. To put that in perspective, it’s the equivalent of the UK reporting 190,000 cases in a single day.
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Shocking but that's Delta for you.
 
M18CTID said:
This is horrendous - over 27,000 cases in Hungary today. Their population is about one seventh of the UK. To put that in perspective, it’s the equivalent of the UK reporting 190,000 cases in a single day.
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How many are vaccinated. It looks like with Delta the wave is minimised to mostly a bit of a rough few days for the majority if you have a good vaccination level.

May be best to get the T cells fired up and add natural immunity in case something else comes along from all these Delta cases in Europe as that might need both vaccine and your own body primed this winter if one shows up. You can catch it twice but it seems reasonably sure the second time you will get some advantage from your defences already being aware of what it is.
 
Healdplace said:
How many are vaccinated. It looks like with Delta the wave is minimised to mostly a bit of a rough few days for the majority if you have a good vaccination level.

May be best to get the T cells fired up and add natural immunity in case something else comes along from all these Delta cases in Europe as that might need both vaccine and your own body primed this winter if one shows up. You can catch it twice but it seems reasonably sure the second time you will get some advantage from your defences already being aware of what it is.
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60% of the overall population compared to 68% here.
 
India has had its lowest rate of cases in 18 months and Japan has a 7 day average of 132 cases with a population nearly double the United Kingdom. How is it sky rocketing across Europe and there and two countries here have it under control? High rates of immunity in India and a population that will take social responsibility to protect others in following the rules in Japan?
 
When this thread first started and we did not have the vaccinations those that were worried were pointed in the direction of previous pandemics like the Spanish flu which are no longer with us

I remember BM experts saying that viruses mutate but tend to mutate into weaker versions and eventually burn themselves out.

isn’t that what is going to happen with this or is that not now the view ?
 
kevin horlocks wand said:
When this thread first started and we did not have the vaccinations those that were worried were pointed in the direction of previous pandemics like the Spanish flu which are no longer with us

I remember BM experts saying that viruses mutate but tend to mutate into weaker versions and eventually burn themselves out.

isn’t that what is going to happen with this or is that not now the view ?
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Not an expert so not sure but I have heard comments from some scientists that take both views.

On the one hand viruses do mutate into a form that works best and killing off your hosts is not ideal for host or virus. So trial and error over enough time probably evolves into something infective but not so deadly.

On the other I have heard some suggest that this virus does not behave quite like expectations but that may be just those who believe it might have escaped after someone somewhere had been trying to manipulate it as a bio weapon.

Do not think anyone knows for sure as the origin is still being argued about.

However, is not a common cold a form of coronavirus that has existed for ages and did it not likely wreak more havoc long ago when humans were first introduced to it. If so that may be the path here if indeed Covid 19 is natural and the best hope is will not take a few thousamd years to become more like a cold.

But that is pure speculation not an informed opinion.
 
Healdplace said:
Not an expert so not sure but I have heard comments from some scientists that take both views.

On the one hand viruses do mutate into a form that works best and killing off your hosts is not ideal for host or virus. So trial and error over enough time probably evolves into something infective but not so deadly.

On the other I have heard some suggest that this virus does not behave quite like expectations but that may be just those who believe it might have escaped after someone somewhere had been trying to manipulate it as a bio weapon.

Do not think anyone knows for sure as the origin is still being argued about.

However, is not a common cold a form of coronavirus that has existed for ages and did it not likely wreak more havoc long ago when humans were first introduced to it. If so that may be the path here if indeed Covid 19 is natural and the best hope is will not take a few thousamd years to become more like a cold.

But that is pure speculation not an informed opinion.
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From what I've read I think its 3 strains of Coronavirus are now counted in the "common cold" area. If this is due to them weakening over decades/centuries or due to our immunity is something I have no idea on.
 
Just been a good discussion on BBC News about why our numbers are different from the mainland in Europe.

They seemed to be arguing that scientists THINK we might have by fortune chosen the right strategy because Delta hit the UK first in late Spring. So because of that head start. And because of our head start on the vaccinations. And because we took the gamble to open up early in mid Summer we allowed the drivers of this new wave - the under 18s and their middle aged parents - to catch Delta with minimum damage to the NHS at a time when pressures were fewer AND we also rolled out the boostes more quickly to the vulnerable before most of western Europe. So we may have allowed a high level of people to acquire T cells and some degree of immunity via all these things as we go into Winter. Whereas on the mainland as they did all these things less quickly they are playing catch up going into Winter

They did say nobody is 100% confident of this being what is happening but they have reasonable optimism we may get through the Winter better ahead of the curve.

We did discuss around these things in here several months ago at some length as it started to look like the plan when we opened up. But as it was risky and came at a big price (people still died and were hospitalised through the Summer just not in a huge spike as Winter arrives) - so the NHS would not then be stretched to cope by other things - thus minimising the deaths by consequence of Covid not dominating the Winter - they hope!

Another interesting comment came from a European scientist (I think - did not catch his name) arguing that our focus on using AZ more than Europe may have helped too.

Because - again as I recall us discussing in here - the lower efficacy in people NOT catching Covid at all was seen as a bad thing whereas we regarded it as more positive. It allowed natural immunity from catching it to build up (T Cells etc) and has sped up the process that thosewho focused on vaccines that did not - as AZ does - mininise serious illness but not to the same degree catching it at all.

Delta is so infectious no vaccine could stop it but our wider use of a vaccine that let that happen anyway whilst minimising the deadly outcome might have (possibly by accident more than design) steered us through the consequences of Delta becoming the vastly dominant variant.

That was how I took it but I may have misunderstood some parts.

Everyone agreed we are HOPING this is what is happening and why but preparing in case it is not what DOES.
 
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Claytop said:
Can always rely on you to break the good news... ;)
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Hehe. OK, some good news thread bombing:

I wrote yesterday the good news is that hospitalizations are going down now in older ages, which is consistent with a booster effect and very good news if so.

Here's where we, and a few neighbours are on boosters:

Screenshot_20211123-134458_Chrome.jpg

Which should give confidence that the whole of Europe can defeat the incoming wave.

Next up, childhood vaccination. Three million 5-11 year olds have now been vaccinated in the US. Total cases of myocarditis (the supposedly worrying side effect)? Zero. Evidence is now overwhelming to fully protect our u18s. Hopefully we'll get on with it, and EMA approval expected shortly, so Europe will be too.

Get vaxxed, get your kids vaxxed. Get boosted.
 
roypaulknewmyfather said:
www.theguardian.com

Covid patients in ICU now almost all unvaccinated, says Oxford scientist

Prof Sir Andrew Pollard says most of those infected who are fully vaccinated will experience only mild symptoms
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
Not sure if when I read this I thought it made sense because I wanted it to, or that it is the case. People will make their own minds up.
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It's good to see that it's nearly all unvaccinated that are experiencing the worst consequences of their decision, but there are thousands of vaccinated people that are suffering because of the selfishness of those that have decided a vaccine is not for them. A mate of mine has just had a cancer operation cancelled for a second time. Whether that's directly as a result of pressures on the NHS due to the unnecessarily high number of Covid patients I don't know, but it certainly doesn't help that thousands of beds are occupied by the unvaccinated leading to people with other life threatening conditions having treatment delayed to a point where it may reduce their own life expectancy. Why don't these selfish cunts just go ahead and get vaccinated. It boils my piss that they are risking other peoples lives, and they either don't give a shit or are too stupid to realise.
 
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