Coronavirus (2021) thread

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roubaixtuesday said:
There's anecdotal evidence that infections are milder in adults, and anecdotal evidence they're more severe in children.

The adult evidence is probably skewed by a young population in SA, and a population that is largely vaccinated or prior infected compared to when the delta wave hit there.

Most experts seem to think its too early to judge severity. It would be very unwise to assume its milder at this point, I think.

On the paeds position, we just have to hope it's some statistical work in small numbers.

Regardless, it would have to be much, much milder to avoid a significant wave of hospital admissions with this growth rate. Given the rate if growth of hospitalisation in Gauteng, this doesn't appear at all likely, though not beyond the realm of possibility.

John burn murdoch did a good thread on this.

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Here’s another more recent bit of evidence, no doubt you will find a way to spin it so it’s not true and kids are all going to ill but here you go.

 
True_Blue69 said:
Here’s another more recent bit of evidence, no doubt you will find a way to spin it so it’s not true and kids are all going to ill but here you go.

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That's literally an extract from the JBM thread I recommended. It's consistent with what I posted.

Suggest you lose the preconceptions.
 
True_Blue69 said:
Here’s another more recent bit of evidence, no doubt you will find a way to spin it so it’s not true and kids are all going to ill but here you go.

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Lol, Its not more recent. Its a graph from John Burn-Murdoch 4th tweet on his thread in the tweet that roubaixtuesday posted :)

And to answer your earlier question that was deleted about has it even hospitalised anyone, Simple answer, Yes, Lots of people. This week we will know for sure how bad its going to be in SA.

1638876861093.png
 
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grunge said:
Isn't it proven that Omicron has some evasion of natural previous infection immunity which would suggest inactivated vaccine will have issues?
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The UK has 60m doses of a full virus vaccine from noravax being delivered from Jan. Approval very soon according to those who have seen the data.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
New data on UK spread. Bad news I'm afraid.

Looking increasingly likely the rate of increase here is similar to South Africa.

On Saturday, omicron was 2% of all UK cases ie ~1000, and doubling every 3 days. So likely ~2,000 today.



The data is apparently from UKHSA, but only published weekly, so this is an unpublished preview from someone who looks to be a very reputable source.

Data is from SGTF (spike gene target failure) from standard pcr tests. PCR tests for three targets in the covid genome and reports positive if any two are found. The omicron spike gene is mutated at the target sequence, so you only ever get two. So looking at the number of SGTF PCR tests gives a good proxy for omicron without doing the full sequencing, and is probably the best way to monitor initial spread.

The variant looks to be escaping immunity from infection, but no evidence it's causing more severe disease in the vaccinated, thankfully, and good reasons to believe vaccinating still effective vs severe disease.

Please, get your jab booked TODAY if you're eligible for first, second or booster.
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That's actually fantastic news.
Winter respitory viruses normally have a x15 multiplier on cases in winter than in summer.
.
 
True_Blue69 said:
Here’s another more recent bit of evidence, no doubt you will find a way to spin it so it’s not true and kids are all going to ill but here you go.

Click to expand...

5 times less virulence for Omicron compared with Delta would be great news!
 
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BlueAnorak said:
The UK has 60m doses of a full virus vaccine from noravax being delivered from Jan. Approval very soon according to those who have seen the data.
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Novavax isn't a full virus vaccine, though it will be great to have another option approved.

www.novavax.com

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Valneva have a full virus vaccine.

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The numbers on Zoe are now starting to reflect a possible real rapid increase in cases, unfortunately. They were falling up until five days ago.

North West is also one of those rising the most. It has increased every day since Thursday. Still relative low compared to most regions but the gap is narrowing.

Stockport - whch has been the best borough in GM for weeks now on Zoe and also doing well in real cases - has accelerated the most in the past week and is now double the cases it had a week ago on Zoe.

On the other hand Bury, Oldham and Rochdale - that were very high - have fallen markedly.

Something is definitely stirring in the numbers on Zoe and not in a good way in the North West which had the steepest rise again in the UK regions today.

You can presume the increase in Omicron is a factor in all this.
 
grunge said:
Lol, Its not more recent. Its a graph from John Burn-Murdoch 4th tweet on his thread in the tweet that roubaixtuesday posted :)

And to answer your earlier question that was deleted about has it even hospitalised anyone, Simple answer, Yes, Lots of people. This week we will know for sure how bad its going to be in SA.

View attachment 31245
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But still no one has died right?
 
True_Blue69 said:
But still no one has died right?
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The WHO had no reports of deaths 3/4 days ago. but as everyone knows, deaths are a 2/3 week lag on cases and Omicron has been around 2 weeks in any real numbers.

so, as I and everyone else has been saying, while its looking quite positive, and heres hoping that continues. its too early to tell and we need more data.

This week all eyes on SA.
 
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grunge said:
The WHO had no reports of deaths 3/4 days ago. but as everyone knows, deaths are a 2/3 week lag on cases and Omicron has been around 2 weeks in any real numbers.

so, as I and everyone else has been saying, while its looking quite positive, and heres hoping that continues. its too early to tell and we need more data.

This week all eyes on SA.
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Noticed there has been a relatively large outbreak in Norway. Again all reported to be mild in line with what the SA experts are saying. Also that symptoms seem to show after 2-4 days rather than 7-14, so maybe the lag on everything else will be shorter.
 
So does anyone think some sort of lockdown or closures could be rolled out for Christmas and New year?
 
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