Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Healdplace said:
No doubt she would have. I learned a lot from her.

Though my Grandma was a Burnley supporter. Walked 20 miles with my mum to watch them play.I think it was a punishment for being naughty. Not the walk. She loved that. She became a city fan after marrying my dad.

More seriously, several of my gran's family died in that outbreak. All of them late teens and early 20s when it happened. As was my gran.

Older people had a less severe response as they had been exposed naurally to all sorts of viruses the younger ones had not I presume in an age where medication was very much more limited.

The whole concept of self isolation and social distancing emerged at that time from the chief medic in Manchester who pioneered lockdown.

Having seen the attempts last night to try to drive me off here in the other thread I kind of wonder what it might have been like now if it was not us oldies who were dying regularly but the ones who now seem to think it does not matter if they get vaccinated or not as they are not like their gran and ready to conk out but have a body with no natural immunity and so dropping like flies before their lives had begun.

Anti vaxxers would be rather few on the ground I suspect.
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I was just having a little light hearted banter, no offence, enjoyed reading your post.
 
SWP's back said:
I had it out with my mother in the first place which is why she’s treble jabbed. I care enough to educate those I love about the dangers of covid and safety of the vaccine. That’s why I’m happy enough for you to not be jabbed at all.

And it wouldn’t me “letting them die”, they chose that for themselves when they state idiotic statements like “I don’t need a vaccine because I have an immune system”.

So tell me, why should those that choose not to have the vaccine be given care? It’s obvious they will because that’s what’s happening. But why is it morally right to care for those that chose to put themselves at risk through their own stupidity? As for hearing so much shite, I’d imagine you get that often enough listening to yourself.
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Because we live in a civilised society. Im
Jabbed up. I do my bit. But whatever the circumstances in my life i pay NI and expect care if i need it

and there you go again with the childish jibes.
 
www.reuters.com

People with health issues or inactivated vaccine should get COVID-19 booster - WHO

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommended on Thursday that people who are immunocompromised or received an inactivated COVID-19 vaccine should receive a booster dose to protect against waning immunity.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

WHO recommending that anyone who had an inactivated virus vaccine should get a booster. To me that sounds like prior infection really isn't a good immunity level against Omicron.
 
M18CTID said:
Funnily enough, it’s the Covidiots who appear to be burning bridges the most. One anti-vaxxer conspiracy theorist I know was crying on FB last week, saying if you can’t see by now that it’s all about controlling us then everyone who disagrees with him should unfriend him. I’m not sure why he was driven to make such an extreme statement that potentially could’ve led to him losing 90% of the people on his friends list but he’s probably pissed off that he can’t currently go to his villa in Spain as you need to be double jabbed to get in.

He was also saying that those who comply are part of the problem. This is the same dickhead who happily complied with the testing requirements to get to his gaff in Spain in September, proclaimed to everyone on FB that he’d jacked in his United season ticket on the grounds that they wanted a negative LFT or proof of double jab to get in, yet it turns out that he didn’t bin it off in the end but conveniently forgot to update all his fellow whoppers on FB, and to top it all off he works for Network Rail who just happen to be government owned and no doubt he’ll be complying with any Covid measures his employer has put in place. So all in all, he complies as much as the rest of us and I hope Spain bans the bullshitting **** from entering their country not just for this month but for the next 10 fucking years.
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Ps im fully jabbed and compliant. My argument has always been that we are going to have to live with it for years to come. My gripe this morning is people like billy big balls saying “let em die”.
A) i dont believe him
B) if givibg people treatment , whatever the circumstannces makes me ‘full if shit’ or a ‘mouth breather’ then i can live with that
 
marcus said:
Because we live in a civilised society. Im
Jabbed up. I do my bit. But whatever the circumstances in my life i pay NI and expect care if i need it

and there you go again with the childish jibes.
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It’s not childish to call fucking idiots, fucking idiots. If they can’t deal with it then they can fuck off or they can ignore me or block me or whatever the fuck they want. I simply don’t care. I have neither the time nor the crayons to waste on them.
 
Back on to NHS website brought my booster forward again to this Monday..think I'll be in good shape to hit a club Christmas eve..now where do the over 45s go ?
 
I know Roubaix has gone off for a while. Do not blame him. But maybe a statistical minded person here might answer this. The reason I posted those South African numbers about cases of Omicron in the past week was because the vertical line we are used to seeing from there seemed to be slowing in the numbers. After just a week or two. In a stilll limited vaccination community.

I noted in the briefing we were told to expect 50% of cases here to be Omicron by the early new year so they are envisaging a similar growth here too.

But how will the impact of greater protection tweak those numbes here? Will it rapidly target the ones easiest to infect and then tail off after it exhausts them?

We are viewing the near vertical line of the South African graph as a bad thing but how can we know it will not be a bit like City playing 100 passes sideways, wearing out the defence and shooting (over the bar) versus two 90 yard passes and - bang - a goal?

In other words we are expecting a long huge wave. What if it is a short lived huge wave. Reaching the ones easy to reach first and burning out. All over by Chrtistmas.

If that happens in South Africa (and to me the numbers there look not to be rising as fast as they were) then we may be over estimating duration a bit. Will depend a lot on how much immunity people have and how much it changes how Omicron behaves here as that immunity will be very high in the UK versus many places.

Though not remotely an expert on this so it is pure speculation and likely wide of the mark.
 
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BlueHammer85 said:
but there’s a strong possibility we’ll be heading into more restrictions and possible lockdown. Whilst those countries start lifting theirs.
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Unlikely - Delta is a much more severe problem in Europe at the moment.
Also, although we know Delta gives some immunity to Omicron, we don't yet know if Omicon is sufficiently different to not confer immunity against Delta. Admittedly this is a nightmare scenario as it would result in 2 concurrent pandemics but we don't know yet.
 
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Anyone know what the score is with those that have had the AZ jab? Keep seeing ‘inactivated vaccine’ but don’t know if AZ was active or inactive. Has anything been said about it’s effectiveness at all?
 
Healdplace said:
I know Roubaix has gone off for a while. Do not blame him. But maybe a statistical minded person here might answer this. The reason I posted those South African numbers about cases of Omicron in the past week was because the vertical line we are used to seeing from there seemed to be slowing in the numbers. After just a week or two. In a stilll limited vaccination community.

I noted in the briefing we were told to expect 50% of cases here to be Omicron by the early new year so they are envisaging a similar growth here too.

But how will the impact of greater protection tweak those numbes here? Will it rapdly target the ones easiest to infect and then tail off after it exhausts them.

We are viewing the near vertical line of the South African graph as a bad thing but how can we know it will not be a bit like City paying 100 passes sideways, wearing out the defence and shooting over the bar versus two 90 yard passes and - bang - a goal?

In other words we are expecting a long huge wave. What if it is a short lived huge wave. Reaching the ones easyto reach first and burning out. All over by Chrtistmas.

If that happens in South Africa (and to me the numbers there look not to be rising as fast as they were) then we may be over estimating duration a bit. Will depend a lot on how much immunity people have and how much it changes how Omicron behaves here as that immunity will be very high in the UK versus many places.

Though not remotely an expert on this so it is pure speculation and likely wide of the mark.
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There are many problems comparing SA and the UK. The major ones being:
1. The average life span in SA is 64.13 years and in the UK it is 81.2 years (+ a couple of years if your female, - a couple of years if you're a man). So a huge chunk (17 years worth) of the most vulnerable have already died in SA. Those who survive to be 80 in the black community generally have constitutions of an Ox so you can't even compare deaths in the age cohorts and multiply numbers up.
2. It's winter in the UK and summer in SA. There us normally a 15x multiplier for flu cases in the UK but for Covid it appears to be a lot less - maybe 3x or 4x as restrictions in the EU have gradually stopped keeping the effective R0 near to 1 since the start of October.
3. The UK is 70% vaccinated. SA is 24%
4. Previous Covid waves have ripped through SA. Though it appears SA antibody levels are slightly lower than in the UK - 92% on average falling to 80% in youth cohorts (late October). In SA I think the figure is lower i heard 85% on a TV broadcast but can't find a web article to back this up.
5. Omicon has antibody escape. What this means yet we don't know.

The figures for severity (hospitalisation and death) are looking very good in SA but how this translates to the UK is only a guess. Seeing how Omicron increases in the 5% of cases that are genome tested will help determine what we can really take from the SA experience. Remember there are two distinct Omicon strains one with the S gene drop our (BA.1) that can be easily detected and one without the drop out (BA.2) that can only be spotted in genome sample testing.
 
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BlueAnorak said:
There are many problems comparing SA and the UK. The major ones being:
1. The average life span in SA is 64.13 years and in the UK it is 81.2 years (+ a couple of years if your female, - a couple of years if you're a man). So a huge chunk (17 years worth) of the most vulnerable have already died in SA. Those who survive to be 80 in the black community generally have constitutions of an Ox so you can't even compare deaths in the age cohorts and multiply numbers up.
2. It's winter in the UK and summer in SA. There us normally a 15x multiplier for flu cases in the UK but for Covid it appears to be a lot less - maybe 3x or 4x as restrictions in the EU have gradually stopped keeping the effective R0 near to 1 since the start of October.
3. The UK is 70% vaccinated. SA is 24%
4. Previous Covid waves have ripped through SA. Though it appears SA antibody levels are slightly lower than in the UK - 92% on average falling to 80% in youth cohorts (late October). In SA I think the figure is lower i heard 85% on a TV broadcast but can't find a web article to back this up.
5. Omicon has antibody escape. What this means yet we don't know.

The figures for severity (hospitalisation and death) are looking very good in SA but how this translates to the UK is only a guess. Seeing how Omicron increases in the 5% of cases that are genome tested will help determine what we can really take from the SA experience. Remember there are two distinct Omicon strains one with the S gene drop our (BA.1) that can be easily detected and one without the drop out (BA.2)
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Addition on point 1. The average age in South Africa is 27 and has a sharp drop after 40-50.
 
SWP's back said:
Close, but you can call me Sam.
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Honestly mate, i think youve got muddled up with who youre getting your knick-knocks in a twist with.
im not anti vax
Im not covid denier
I believe everyone should get jabbed if they can

But … im was calling you (and others) out on the “let em die” comments.
I dont believe u would stand and let some one die if you could help.
We all pay in (yes i know some much more than others) and the NHS is cradle to the grave.
if someone makes the mistake of not being jabbed and ends up poorly, i still believe they deserve care. We all make mistakes.

have a good day and lets leave it be :)
 
Healdplace said:
I know Roubaix has gone off for a while. Do not blame him. But maybe a statistical minded person here might answer this. The reason I posted those South African numbers about cases of Omicron in the past week was because the vertical line we are used to seeing from there seemed to be slowing in the numbers. After just a week or two. In a stilll limited vaccination community.

I noted in the briefing we were told to expect 50% of cases here to be Omicron by the early new year so they are envisaging a similar growth here too.

But how will the impact of greater protection tweak those numbes here? Will it rapidly target the ones easiest to infect and then tail off after it exhausts them?

We are viewing the near vertical line of the South African graph as a bad thing but how can we know it will not be a bit like City playing 100 passes sideways, wearing out the defence and shooting (over the bar) versus two 90 yard passes and - bang - a goal?

In other words we are expecting a long huge wave. What if it is a short lived huge wave. Reaching the ones easy to reach first and burning out. All over by Chrtistmas.

If that happens in South Africa (and to me the numbers there look not to be rising as fast as they were) then we may be over estimating duration a bit. Will depend a lot on how much immunity people have and how much it changes how Omicron behaves here as that immunity will be very high in the UK versus many places.

Though not remotely an expert on this so it is pure speculation and likely wide of the mark.
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That looks exactly what has happened in the Omicron centre of Guateng province, funnily enough.
 
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