Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Absolutely. And if it turns out that the vaccine has been effective in preventing serious illness then it's surely not a grave cause for concern.
Still a concern because of the increased risk of further mutations if it spreads widely even if it doesn't make people ill. But, as you say, nowhere near as serious as it would be if it made the vaccine totally ineffective.
 
Still a concern because of the increased risk of further mutations if it spreads widely even if it doesn't make people ill. But, as you say, nowhere near as serious as it would be if it made the vaccine totally ineffective.
Of course mate. We still need to be on our guard and things like this obviously need close monitoring going forward. I continue to remain optimistic that the UK is in a good position and we're clearly far better equipped to deal with any curveballs than we were 12 months ago. Not just with the vaccines, but also with far more testing capacity and being better at test, trace, and isolate than we were previously. There's still room for improvement on that score of course but I feel we now have a variety of tools to send Covid to the margins going forward.
 
Scotland data

3 deaths - was 6 last week

204 cases - was 285 last week

1.4% positive - was 1.8% last week

109 patients (down 6 in day) - was 168 last week

18 ICU ventilated (up 2 in day) - was 20 last week
 
Northern Ireland data:

1 death - was 2 last week

119 cases - was 113 last week

5.1% positivity - was 6.0% last week

Rolling 7 day total 824 - down from 833 yesterday but up from 553 last week

4 Care Home outbreaks - up 1 on yesterday - down 1 on last week

NB:- Only 1 of the 4 Care Homes has any symptomatic cases. The others are just from tests without symptoms.

69 Patients - down 7 in day - was 99 last week

5 ventilated icu - down 1 in day - was 9 last week
 
More on the 18 England hospital deaths

Four of them are actually 2 months or more old 2 from January and 2 from mid November.

Regions NE 6 NW 3 SW 3 London 2 SE 2 E 1 Midlands 1

Only Doncaster with 2 had more than 1

The three for the NW were from Lancashire, Liverpool and St Helens.

11 of the 18 were aged over 80.
 
A coronavirus variant with a worrying "double mutation" has been detected in the UK after having first emerged in India.

A total of 77 cases of the variant, known as B.1.617, have found across the country up to 14 April, the latest update from Public Health England revealed.

The strain is of particular concern because of features two mutations in the spike protein combined in the same virus, prompting fears it may be more infectious or less susceptible to vaccines.
The UK strain is the one causing the surge in India.
Now Test & Trace works, I'm pretty sure that surge testing will deal with mutating variation.
As the number of cases overall is falling we also need to genome sequence test more than the 10% we currently do.
 
Now Test & Trace works, I'm pretty sure that surge testing will deal with mutating variation.

The stated expectation is for an increase in cases as we open up over the next two months, ie Test and Trace is not expected to cope with current variants, let alone a new one.

Policy is *not* to keep cases at current or lower levels. You could argue that it should be, but that would probably require radical changes to test and trace and isolate, and probably more or longer restrictions too.
 
Zoe App update

UK Cases estimated down 85 on yesterday to 1399. Was 1956 last Friday.

And ongoing symptomatic cases down 1528 to 30, 455. Was 43, 356 last Friday.

If these tumbling numbers are anything like reality there seems little stopping this down track.

Much as we are seeing from the hospitalisation data.

Unfortunately the North West has risen to second highest with only Yorkshire out of the England regions and 3 nations above it.

Though Yorkshire is significantly higher still and in the higher bracket that North West is not yet.

That NW focus seems to be around St Helens/Wigan/Bolton/Leigh where the highest cases are right now it suggests.
My worry is that 96 of the Zoe cases are in my Local Authority (Bromsgrove). Unless of course I'm reading that 96 figure wrong (people with Covid rather than new cases)
 
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