Coronavirus (2021) thread

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These restictions are not going to help anyone. The train to and from the game today was a joke. So overcrowded. They want you to wear a mask for the 90 seconds you are in your local shop but will happily allow 600 people to stand next to each other in a train built to carry 300.
 
Millwallawayveteran1988 said:
These restictions are not going to help anyone. The train to and from the game today was a joke. So overcrowded. They want you to wear a mask for the 90 seconds you are in your local shop but will happily allow 600 people to stand next to each other in a train built to carry 300.
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Is your point that overcrowding should be prevented by proper management by the rail company?
 
Looking like the responsible population will be generally ok after three jabs. I have very good friends whose children have not had the vax, I properly disagree with them but I don’t want them to suffer, hopefully Omicron changes their outlook.
 
Think we can say Greater Manchester has acquired Omicron cases in numbers over the past few days. The cases have dramatically gone up - especially in the last 48 hours - in the way this variant seems to be doing once it takes root.

Manchester has gone from 188 cases 10 days ago to 367 yesterday and 534 today - highest in a very long time in the city.

Trafford has tripled from 130 to 349 in the same period.

And Salford and Stockport doubled to 261 and 249 respectively. As has Rochdale (to 249)

Wigan up nearly 100 in that period on 271.

Only Bolton - the borough that pioneered the Delta wave in the UK back in April - has anything like normal numbers now and is on course to soon be the lowest scoring place in the ten GM boroughs across the entire pandemic for the first time whilst its only rivals - Stockport (currently the lowest scorers) and Trafford - are racing up.

Bolton is still posting modest numbers and is for now on its own in GM doing that.

Zoe by the way predicted this happenimg correctly over the past week of data.

Bit scary to see this happening locally and to fear this is just the start and doubling like this might go on in coming days to reach unprecedented numbers,

Be careful out there. It is clear Omicron will be all around you. And whilst hopefully for most catching it will not mean hospitalisation some will and it is inevitable bed occupancy will escalate if these kind of big numbers continue to double week to week.

Hopefully they will prove the models wrong and flatten off early.
 
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It spreads like billyo and it is a lot less virulent. The only question is it less virulent enough?
The cases in the UK and hospitalisation over the next two weeks or so will show it one way or another.
Dr Campbell's take.
 
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True_Blue69 said:


Hopefully this guy is right
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I hope so too. I think we should be careful about concluding that it's intrinsically mild. Perhaps it is better to say that those who are vaccinated or have been infected will should expect to experience mild symptoms. That is a different conclusion. Does it have any consequence? I am not sure it will given our level of vaccination / infection.
 
True_Blue69 said:


Hopefully this guy is right
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Well, we all *hope* so, but this is a curve fitting exercise without physical understanding doing the rounds on the Internet because it tells people what they want to hear.

It's authored by an engineer associated with a group (PANDA) still promoting treatments either unproven (ivermectin) or proven not to work (HCQ).

Treat with extreme scepticism.
 
Marvin said:
I think we should be careful about concluding that it's intrinsically mild
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Yeah, it's probably more likely that the population currently exposed to it has more immunity than the population exposed to previous waves in SA. Because of prior infection, vaccination and age profile.

We can *hope* the virus is intrinsically less severe, but there's not yet any evidence for that.

What we do know is that we can still change the immunity of our population through vaccinating and boosters.

That's the way to try and get through this without severe restrictions or hospital overload: vaccinate and boost as fast as possible.
 
Given how vital boosters are, a snapshot for a few major Western countries.

We're doing exceptionally well.

USA is fucked. Omicron will almost certainly kill a lot of people there - they have a low vax rate and a low booster rate

Germany coming up on the rails.

Godspeed to everyone involved.

Screenshot_20211211-215511_Chrome.jpg
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Given how vital boosters are, a snapshot for a few major Western countries.

We're doing exceptionally well.

USA is fucked. Omicron will almost certainly kill a lot of people there - they have a low vax rate and a low booster rate

Germany coming up on the rails.

Godspeed to everyone involved.

View attachment 31488
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If we have the supply, why are we not doing this in the millions per day?
 
roubaixtuesday said:
The efficacy quoted is against symptomatic disease, not hospitalisation. That's believed very likely to hold up well. Thankfully.

The Pfizer quoted efficacy is also very low indeed, 30% only. Both have large error margins, both could be similar in reality.

But. Booster takes you to 70%+ for at least a month.

Get your boosters blues.
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Do we know anything about Moderna booster efficacy yet?
 
Alan Harper's Tash said:
Plan B was rushed for reasons we all know about.

I was and still am totally with limiting social contact whilst Omicron is investigated to an extent where we can make informed decisions.

Especially if it guarantees a Christmas with our loved ones.

Indoor concerts being allowed, but office work not is baffling.
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There was a good point made this morning on tv by someone whose name escapes me. People are looking at the rules and are judging them based on effectiveness at reducing spread Only, this is only natural. However they said the govt(spit) are taking a broader approach.

Spread of the virus
Economics
Mental health

I understand this tbh especially after the length of time we have been affected by the virus.

In bluehammers case for instance he stays at home but gets the work done, he gets paid company makes money etc....

He goes out at night by choice, he’s free the duck it.

Now if he went to work that’s is a no benefit risk. Cancelling a concert is a benefit in terms of spreading the virus but a negative in the other areas.

Is the balance right? Who knows, could anyone possible work out every scenario certainly not.

The hope is that enough people will work from home, wear masks and stay at home to keep the hospitals from being overrun , they may get lucky with the variant anyhow.
 
hilts said:
There was a good point made this morning on tv by someone whose name escapes me. People are looking at the rules and are judging them based on effectiveness at reducing spread Only, this is only natural. However they said the govt(spit) are taking a broader approach.

Spread of the virus
Economics
Mental health

I understand this tbh especially after the length of time we have been affected by the virus.

In bluehammers case for instance he stays at home but gets the work done, he gets paid company makes money etc....

He goes out at night by choice, he’s free the duck it.

Now if he went to work that’s is a no benefit risk. Cancelling a concert is a benefit in terms of spreading the virus but a negative in the other areas.

Is the balance right? Who knows, could anyone possible work out every scenario and be certainly not.

The hope is that enough people will work from home, wear masks and stay at home to keep the hospitals from being overrun , they may get lucky with the variant anyhow.
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Yeah, makes sense.

I think that if they’d communicated it better. Ie We have a new variant that looks like a super-spreader and we don‘t yet know the virulence of it yet, so we are asking people to be cautious and only go out where necessary whilst we gather the relevant information. This gives us the best chance of having the most normal Christmas we can possibly have.

I think people would have been on board with more.
 
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