Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Bluesince1979]

I said innumerate. The implication there is simply incompetence.

Or perhaps they like their influence and fame/money it brings them.

Anyone that doesnt believe some are just enjoying there 15 minutes of fame and wanting to delay slipping back into obscurity is naive in the extreme! Lifes full of people who want to be seen as an expert. Half of them are on here

 

[blueinsa]

How can you model ‘truth’ based on an unknown virus with unknown effects? Modelling by definition is based on assumptions. You can do several models based on varying assumptions and then track how each model matches the virus in real time.

They predict a doomsday scenario each and every time and people are now switching off from their message because it’s patently wrong and bares no resemblance to what we see here at home or globally.

The press are also to blame with their doomsday narratives.

You would be forgiven for thinking we had bodies piled high at the sides of the roads the way some report on covid.

So back to the truth re Omicron based on real world data and experiences so far…..it’s much more contagious but is responsible for a much leas severe illness if at all with hospitalisation numbers down as well as deaths. Restrictions because if it? Not now, pointless, it’s here already. Lockdown because of it? Absolutely not!

Protect the NHS? Yes, we need politicians and parties who will spend what’s required because right now, we are facing lockdowns for no other reason than our NHS can’t cope because of our shit politicians and that is not acceptable. It’s their job to protect it, not ours by being locked away when it suits.

 

[feedmpenzaandhewillscore]

Is this true?

I've literally just had it, this week no idea if it was Omnicron or Delta.

I wouldn't want to get over this and then catch Omnicron, I can't get a booster for a month now....

The brains at SAGE seem to think it’s a distinct possibility and we have two epidemics in delta and omicron moving through the country. You have had it and you have had it and your body has produced a response to covid which is a plus point.

 

[Del_Bosque]

They predict a doomsday scenario each and every time and people are now switching off from their message because it’s patently wrong and bares no resemblance to what we see here at home or globally.

The press are also to blame with their doomsday narratives.

You would be forgiven for thinking we had bodies piled high at the sides of the roads the way some report on covid.

So back to the truth re Omicron based on real world data and experiences so far…..it’s much more contagious but is responsible for a much leas severe illness if at all with hospitalisation numbers down as well as deaths. Restrictions because if it? Not now, pointless, it’s here already. Lockdown because of it? Absolutely not!

Protect the NHS? Yes, we need politicians and parties who will spend what’s required because right now, we are facing lockdowns for no other reason than our NHS can’t cope because of our shit politicians and that is not acceptable. It’s their job to protect it, not ours by being locked away when it suits.

I think we definitely spend enough on the NHS, I just don’t think it’s spent correctly.

 

[mosssideblue]

I think we definitely spend enough on the NHS, I just don’t think it’s spent correctly.

I think there is a lot of truth in that.

 

[Del_Bosque]

Yeah. First Xmas in our new home though. Couldn't wait to have family over. Sulking big time.

How’s the symptoms?

I know this sounds grim but at least you found out now and didn’t give it older relatives round the Christmas Dinner table.

I’m really concerned about it tbh.

Time to smash some food deliveries and computer games.

 

[BobKowalski]

And should the ‘real world’ ever beat ‘best case’ when modelling a range of outcomes?

The real world always comes out on top, but the unknown is how did the measures we took because of the modelling mitigate or influence the eventual real world outcome?

Do nothing and people will blame you for not preparing. Do something based on your disaster modelling and when nothing bad happens the same people will deride you for scaremongering.

Planning requires hard data. We have barely two years of hard data and that is based on a virus that shifts and mutates. Like it or not, we are ground zero, the first few lines of data and yeah, it sucks.

The way we model or handle these events will be looked at when it comes to any inquest, because that will be valuable data for the future, and data is key.

 

[blueinsa]

I think we definitely spend enough on the NHS, I just don’t think it’s spent correctly.

A distinct possibility mate.

Either way we need change and we need it now because what is happening every winter is not acceptable.

 

[twosips]

How’s the symptoms?

I know this sounds grim but at least you found out now and didn’t give it older relatives round the Christmas Dinner table.

I’m really concerned about it tbh.

Time to smash some food deliveries and computer games.

Indeed. It'll be fine and we'll get through it! Just gutted. Moved into our first ever home recently and we've spent ages getting it ready for friends and family. Couldn't wait to have them over. All cancelled just like that. Shite!

Symptoms wise, banging headache. Tickly throat. Feel really warm. Not too bad energy wise tbh. Could walk about fine really if I needed to.

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

I think we definitely spend enough on the NHS, I just don’t think it’s spent correctly.

My friend was in a Junior management role in the NHS. In private industry I reckon he would have been on around £40-50k. For many years he was on or around this.

One year his boss called him in and gave him an £8k pay rise. He said what is this for? “Because if we don’t spend our budget we will get less next year”

Prior to leaving he was on £68,000 a year. They then made him redundant, paying him around £80k. Six months later they took him back on as a consultant (He was self employed) paying him £100k a year ! By his own admission, most of the days he was with them, he did nothing.

He then moved on to a job working for security services and said everyone in there just spent the whole day playing games on their computers, doing absolutely nothing for the six months he was there. It wasn’t that they were deliberately being lazy, they simply had nothing to do. Neither did he but they paid him £50k for the 6m he did. Basically he said that it was just people protecting their own positions by making it look like they were a really essential service.

 

[inbetween]

So wrong. The point of modelling is to predict the likely truth. Sure you can do worst case best stuff but it's the likely outcome is what you are interested in. The MPs want to know the likely scenario as they don't want to blow £30+ billion on a lockdown that isn't needed. It also makes a mockery of all the press the SAGE models get.

It isn't at all, modelling is done to predict outcomes because you cannot predict the future, this isn't the weather forecast. There is no model in existence that accurately predicts the next month, it's impossible. We all know the models we'd like to see but the consequences of that being wrong are far more severe.

Let's put it another way, would you rather get your models wrong and everyone ends up fine or would you rather get it wrong but this time lot's of people die because the government took no action?

These models do not exist to make you and I feel better, they're there to model capacity and actions, mild models do not require action but we know that without it existing on a graph.

 

[Brightwell Bros.]

The real world always comes out on top, but the unknown is how did the measures we took because of the modelling mitigate or influence the eventual real world outcome?

Do nothing and people will blame you for not preparing. Do something based on your disaster modelling and when nothing bad happens the same people will deride you for scaremongering.

Planning requires hard data. We have barely two years of hard data and that is based on a virus that shifts and mutates. Like it or not, we are ground zero, the first few lines of data and yeah, it sucks.

The way we model or handle these events will be looked at when it comes to any inquest, because that will be valuable data for the future, and data is key.

This is interesting, and much fairer than comparing "real world" with "best case" given the "real world" data is always from a context where restrictions were brought in. I increasingly think people are desperate to blame scientists for the pandemic rather than the pandemic itself.

In defence of Sage's models

As a member of Sage, I support public scrutiny of our scientific advice. However, once our models enter the public domain they are interpreted in many different ways and some of the crucial context can be lost. Modelling is an important tool for epidemic management, one that has been tested...

www.spectator.co.uk

 

[mosssideblue]

It isn't at all, modelling is done to predict outcomes because you cannot predict the future, this isn't the weather forecast. There is no model in existence that accurately predicts the next month, it's impossible. We all know the models we'd like to see but the consequences of that being wrong are far more severe.

Let's put it another way, would you rather get your models wrong and everyone ends up fine or would you rather get it wrong but this time lot's of people die because the government took no action?

These models do not exist to make you and I feel better, they're there to model capacity and actions, mild models do not require action but we know that without it existing on a graph.

Totally agree. Would much prefer the Government getting it wrong by over egging the constraints now and saving many more lives than relaxing things too much.

 

[BobKowalski]

They predict a doomsday scenario each and every time and people are now switching off from their message because it’s patently wrong and bares no resemblance to what we see here at home or globally.

The press are also to blame with their doomsday narratives.

You would be forgiven for thinking we had bodies piled high at the sides of the roads the way some report on covid.

So back to the truth re Omicron based on real world data and experiences so far…..it’s much more contagious but is responsible for a much leas severe illness if at all with hospitalisation numbers down as well as deaths. Restrictions because if it? Not now, pointless, it’s here already. Lockdown because of it? Absolutely not!

Protect the NHS? Yes, we need politicians and parties who will spend what’s required because right now, we are facing lockdowns for no other reason than our NHS can’t cope because of our shit politicians and that is not acceptable. It’s their job to protect it, not ours by being locked away when it suits.

Yes. They model disaster scenarios. Its simple risk management. The risk is unknown because we have no hard data, so you model various outcomes and put in place measures that look to prevent the worst happening.

The projections on Omicron look reasonably favourable, but they are projections, not ‘the truth’. The virus doesn’t do truth. It simply looks to replicate and survive.

The difference now is we have vaccines and boosters which should mitigate the threat and that will factor into public thinking and reaction. So, asking people to wear masks is a proportional response, whereas hard lockdown is not in my opinion. But then, I’m not modelling this virus :)

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

They predict a doomsday scenario each and every time and people are now switching off from their message because it’s patently wrong and bares no resemblance to what we see here at home or globally.

The press are also to blame with their doomsday narratives.

You would be forgiven for thinking we had bodies piled high at the sides of the roads the way some report on covid.

So back to the truth re Omicron based on real world data and experiences so far…..it’s much more contagious but is responsible for a much leas severe illness if at all with hospitalisation numbers down as well as deaths. Restrictions because if it? Not now, pointless, it’s here already. Lockdown because of it? Absolutely not!

Protect the NHS? Yes, we need politicians and parties who will spend what’s required because right now, we are facing lockdowns for no other reason than our NHS can’t cope because of our shit politicians and that is not acceptable. It’s their job to protect it, not ours by being locked away when it suits.

as the 8th biggest employer globally (yet based solely in one country ) , you would think 1.7million employees would be able to cope.

not having a go at the employees , but we are doing something wrong and need a grown up conversation about it .

List of largest employers - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Bluewonder]

Yes. They model disaster scenarios. Its simple risk management. The risk is unknown because we have no hard data, so you model various outcomes and put in place measures that look to prevent the worst happening.

The projections on Omicron look reasonably favourable, but they are projections, not ‘the truth’. The virus doesn’t do truth. It simply looks to replicate and survive.

The difference now is we have vaccines and boosters which should mitigate the threat and that will factor into public thinking and reaction. So, asking people to wear masks is a proportional response, whereas hard lockdown is not in my opinion. But then, I’m not modelling this virus :)

But using disaster scenarios to drive policy is absurd. It's like modelling a nuclear meltdown at Heysham then suggesting we disband the nuclear energy network.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

Zee Germans now copying Le Frenche in banning UK travellers.

What the fuck is that going to achieve at this point?

Less chanting of 2 world wars and one World Cup near closing time.

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

My Twitter conversation with the chairman of the Sage Covid modelling committee | The Spectator

The latest Sage papers have been published, envisaging anything from 200 to 6,000 deaths a day from Omicron depending on how many more restrictions we’ll get — up to and very much including another lockdown. Earlier today I had an unexpected chance to ask questions of Graham Medley, the chair of...

www.spectator.co.uk

 

[Ballymagash Blue]

My friend was in a Junior management role in the NHS. In private industry I reckon he would have been on around £40-50k. For many years he was on or around this.

One year his boss called him in and gave him an £8k pay rise. He said what is this for? “Because if we don’t spend our budget we will get less next year”

Prior to leaving he was on £68,000 a year. They then made him redundant, paying him around £80k. Six months later they took him back on as a consultant (He was self employed) paying him £100k a year ! By his own admission, most of the days he was with them, he did nothing.

He then moved on to a job working for security services and said everyone in there just spent the whole day playing games on their computers, doing absolutely nothing for the six months he was there. It wasn’t that they were deliberately being lazy, they simply had nothing to do. Neither did he but they paid him £50k for the 6m he did. Basically he said that it was just people protecting their own positions by making it look like they were a really essential service.

David Graeber likes this post!

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

Dreading the thought of another lockdown even if it is only for 2 weeks, I feel mentally drained by all of this now.

At least you’re honest about your fears and I hope it doesn’t happen for you and everybody else who is struggling with this concept.

However, it may well happen and so if it does and you are struggling, feel free to PM me if you want/need to vent frustrations etc.

Whatever happens, we’ll get through this.