I think your analogy is absolutely reasonable but the one who should bear most guilt for it, I would suggest, is Osborne not Cameron. 5 years of choice driven austerity, living standards dropping for the first time ever, life expectancy reducing for the first time since recording began, public services denuded year on year, backlogs building up every month in hospitals, courts, asylum claims. Libraries and local authority services slashed, doctor and nurse places capped leading to an over reliance on overseas healthcare professionals and desperate levels of pay for people in the caring professionals.
Leaves job was almost already done for them. Telling people, who frankly couldn’t believe they could possibly be worse off they’d be ‘worse off’ really didn‘t stack up, hence the ‘red wall’.
Finally, the biggest bit that leave got and remain didn’t, was that most people actually don’t put a lot of thought into voting and are much more influenced by emotion. The idea that people carefully thought about the pros and cons of leaving the EU is for the birds and the leave cast knew that, lied about almost everything to and thus played on that and, ultimately, triumphed because of that.