General Election - 4th July 2024

Who will you be voting for in the General Election?

  • Labour

    Votes: 266 56.8%

  • Conservative

    Votes: 12 2.6%

  • Liberal Democrat

    Votes: 40 8.5%

  • Reform

    Votes: 71 15.2%

  • Green Party

    Votes: 28 6.0%

  • Other

    Votes: 51 10.9%
  • Total voters
    468
Crooked_rain said:
Millions are voting for them and they could grow a fair bit more.

Being realistic, a lot of the labour votes were just a vote against the tories because it was a shitshow. If Labour don't show clear improvement from the tories, then I wouldn't be too surprised to see another rise in support for Reform.

I know plenty of people who voted Reform, people who I'd never imagine would be voting for a party spearheaded by Farage. And we're not just talking "gammons" as some like to say, I know a pretty diverse mix of people that voted them.

I voted Labour personally, not with a great deal of confidence though, and i think that's the case for many.
Click to expand...

I can assure you that a Reform government (which would never happen) would be even worse than the Tories.
 
MillionMilesAway said:
right thread this time...

10 pm Exit Poll to current (9 to declare):
Labour - spot on
Conservative - actual down 12
LibDems - actual up 10
SNP - actual up 2
Greens - actual up 2
Reform - actual down 9
Click to expand...
Pretty accurate then. The only slightly notable discrepancy was the 10-12 given to the Tories that ended up with the Lib Dems.
It was much closer than the BBC prediction in the middle of the night after quite a few results had come in that gave the Tories around 160.
 
Cielo Azul said:
Reform UK 4,051,969 Total Votes 4 MPs up to yet

Liberal Democrat’s 3,451,969 Total Votes and 70 MPs

Is this democracy?
Click to expand...
If you lost, No. If you won, Yes.

The country was asked if we wanted a form of proportional representation to replace the current system and it said "no, thanks", so if people still feel so strongly they have to get out, vote and look to recruit like-minded individuals so they can win with the system we have.

Personally, I wouldn't want PR as it gives people like Reform a bigger voice, and if you think about it, why should a party that came second in so many places get lots of representatives in parliament and how would you allocate them? You would have to remove some of the constituency winners to do so.
 
west didsblue said:
Pretty accurate then. The only slightly notable discrepancy was the 10-12 given to the Tories that ended up with the Lib Dems.
It was much closer than the BBC prediction in the middle of the night after quite a few results had come in that gave the Tories around 160.
Click to expand...

Curtice said right at the start that the Reform number was iffy because it was a lot of <50% chances.

I'd turned in before a later prediction - I vaguely noticed Curtice revising his predictions around midnight.
 
Cielo Azul said:
Reform UK 4,051,969 Total Votes 4 MPs up to yet

Liberal Democrat’s 3,451,969 Total Votes and 70 MPs

Is this democracy?
Click to expand...
Is that what you signed up for? You were misled!

We have the same handwringing in theUS when Republicans actually win the Presidential election with MILLIONS LESS VOTES than the Democrats!

Whether it’s a parliamentary system or a democratic republic you’re looking for, “democracy” isn’t what you’ll find! Expect Reform to decry the vote vs representation outcome and push for some kind of proportional representation in the future, but don’t hold your breath!

In a highly fractured local election system creating a party majority, one party could win every seat by 1 vote, garner the 600+ MPs, have absolute control, yet have only a 600+ countrywide “majority”!! Democracy it is not!

In America, there has been talk of having local elections pick the House and Senate, but have the Presidential election based on a NATIONAL MAJORITY VOTE. That pesky Constitution and the (long dead) belief that the Virginia Colony would always get the Presidency and be a virtual Monarchy (a four letter word to the Founding Fathers!) nixed that almost 250 years ago!!!

And here we sit, wondering whether Alzheimer’s Guy or Dementia Guy is going to win the White House, and which few states are going to win it for him!

You’ll see massive “red states” with virtually no population, looking like they dominate the country, while the densely populated “blue states,” which generate all the money to feed the red states btw, are scattered on the East and West coasts, with IL often looking like an island in the middle of the country!

Be careful what you wish for!
 
Last edited:
Crooked_rain said:
Millions are voting for them and they could grow a fair bit more.

Being realistic, a lot of the labour votes were just a vote against the tories because it was a shitshow. If Labour don't show clear improvement from the tories, then I wouldn't be too surprised to see another rise in support for Reform.

I know plenty of people who voted Reform, people who I'd never imagine would be voting for a party spearheaded by Farage. And we're not just talking "gammons" as some like to say, I know a pretty diverse mix of people that voted them.

I voted Labour personally, not with a great deal of confidence though, and i think that's the case for many.
Click to expand...
I agree. I know a lot of people that voted reform as well. To get 6 or 7 million votes is pretty big.

I also agree on your last point. People aren’t voting for labour with enthusiasm - they’re vote share is pretty much the same as the last election.
 
Crooked_rain said:
Millions are voting for them and they could grow a fair bit more.

Being realistic, a lot of the labour votes were just a vote against the tories because it was a shitshow. If Labour don't show clear improvement from the tories, then I wouldn't be too surprised to see another rise in support for Reform.

I know plenty of people who voted Reform, people who I'd never imagine would be voting for a party spearheaded by Farage. And we're not just talking "gammons" as some like to say, I know a pretty diverse mix of people that voted them.

I voted Labour personally, not with a great deal of confidence though, and i think that's the case for many.
Click to expand...

They might be diverse but I wonder what policies and candidates have attracted them to vote for Reform?

I live in an affluent area and many went and voted Reform (but the Tory’s still got in). The policies of hate and division are not specific to one demographic group as I see very little else Reform offer.
 
Cielo Azul said:
Reform UK 4,051,969 Total Votes 4 MPs up to yet

Liberal Democrat’s 3,451,969 Total Votes and 70 MPs

Is this democracy?
Click to expand...
Fair point. The same was true with UKIP.

However, my prediction is Farage's ownership of that party will be a disaster. Political donations for the party will get mixed up in the personal and there will be a scandal around misuse of party funds.
 
Marlo said:
Fair point. The same was true with UKIP.

However, my prediction is Farage's ownership of that party will be a disaster. Political donations for the party will get mixed up in the personal and there will be a scandal around misuse of party funds.
Click to expand...

Not "Our Nige" mate, he's a man of the people, a true stand up gentleman, only wanting the best for me and you....
 
Crooked_rain said:
Millions are voting for them and they could grow a fair bit more.

Being realistic, a lot of the labour votes were just a vote against the tories because it was a shitshow. If Labour don't show clear improvement from the tories, then I wouldn't be too surprised to see another rise in support for Reform.

I know plenty of people who voted Reform, people who I'd never imagine would be voting for a party spearheaded by Farage. And we're not just talking "gammons" as some like to say, I know a pretty diverse mix of people that voted them.

I voted Labour personally, not with a great deal of confidence though, and i think that's the case for many.
Click to expand...
You may be right about Reform and it would be lazy to say that only racists voted for them. What I would add is that it’s easy to promise all kinds of unrealistic shit when you know you’ve no chance of winning a GE. Labour and the Tories don’t have that luxury as they’re always the main parties fighting it out to run the country so their manifestos have to be at least semi-sensible.
 
Marlo said:
Fair point. The same was true with UKIP.

However, my prediction is Farage's ownership of that party will be a disaster. Political donations for the party will get mixed up in the personal and there will be a scandal around misuse of party funds.
Click to expand...
Doesn’t Farage own 53% of the company behind Reform? If so, then the frog-faced **** will be coining it in
 
Cheadle_hulmeBlue said:
I agree. I know a lot of people that voted reform as well. To get 6 or 7 million votes is pretty big.

I also agree on your last point. People aren’t voting for labour with enthusiasm - they’re vote share is pretty much the same as the last election.
Click to expand...
Vote share historical analysis is pretty useless now in current politics. The Lib Dems scored their best win in a century but actually with a lower share in most of the country than last time and at half of their peak 24% share in 2005 (I think it was).

The protest vote has got itself organised under UKIP first and now Reform and that 4th party dilutes the percentage shares for the other main three PLUS the trend for independent candidates on local issues adds further to it all. The main issue is only half the eligible country is voting because they aren't motivated to. These people are largely not going to be protesting so the majority won't be potential Reform voters but if they do return will likely bump up the share for the traditional three.
 
ChicagoBlue said:
The protest vote is real, esp knowing it was going to be a Labour landslide.

Interesting that in many of the early results, it wasn’t Labour picking up VOTES, it was Labour picking up SEATS, because Reform was taking Tory votes.

There is a lesson in that, if it gets through the cacophony of the historic Labour landslide.

The Right was hurt by a rising Far Right, not the Left, and thus the Far Right will feel emboldened not only by their votes, but their increasing ability to say “I told you so!” if their core platform issues are not only not addressed, but get worse.

Labour will be especially happy that the Far Right harmed the Right (much as the Far Left harms the Left in the States) and that their majority provides significant POLITICAL insulation.

However, in an era of reflexive social media, politics today is increasingly fluid and reactionary, and sea change occurs far quicker than anyone predicted just a few years ago. Both Macron and Sunak have been taught valuable lessons that Starmer would do well to heed.

Social Policies need to be carefully managed to ensure they serve the constituents that brought them to the dance, while ensuring they do as much as possible to snuff out the inevitable negative commentary from the Right & extreme Right.

A stronger immigration policy coupled with a “home front” social agenda feels, from 4,000 miles away (and talking to my educated siblings), to be the sweet spot for Starmer and Labour, if they can corral their party to accept that it is the path to long term power.

I will be interested to see the ongoing analysis and predictions, both in the media and from the broad spectrum (!) of Bluemooners who engage in political discourse.

We’ve got enough of our own SERIOUS problems over here to keep my reading list full, but my thoughts are never far from home (which is Manchester, by way of Torquay, for those who get sucked in by the screen name).

Good luck to us all!
Click to expand...
Sunny Torquay blue myself!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top