Russian invasion of Ukraine

Mr Kobayashi said:
I'm not talking about nuclear blackmail. I'm talking about MAD, which is weakened by soon to be corononated #47 sitting in the Winter White House.
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Not really weakened. MAD only really applied if Russia attacked the US or the US attacked Russia. if Russia nuked the US when Trump is there he'd still hit back.

The UK and France could have a good go at it but its not the same level.

Russia nuking Ukraine for example wouldn't trigger MAD. I doubt it would even trigger if Russia nuked a Nato member. just result in a massive conventional response.
 
2 of the ACTMS missiles fired at the logistics storage bunkers were possibly intercepted according to Reteurs satalite imagery amalysis - it kind of depends on whether the 2 missile strikes in question were double taps or not - which they may have been to penetrate bunkers - in which case they wouldn't have been intercepted.
 
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RED LINES CROSSED, RUSSIA CHANGES NUCLEAR DOCTRINE

As ATACMS slammed into Russian ammo depots finally crossing the latest of Putin’s red lines, the US said it had seen no signs Russia was readying nuclear weapons for battlefield use. And it won’t.
The nuclear posturing is all about reflexive response, a strategy established by the KGB in the 1960’s. This is designed to illicit a response from politicians and the public to oppose the move made by their governments.
The problem for Putin and his nuclear sabre rattling jester Medvedev, is they have said it so often and so loudly that it’s no longer any more than words. But even though they know that, they still say it because it might still raise fears.
The fact that Putin’s response was to change the Russian Nuclear Doctrine, signing it as a response to the long range missile strikes, emphasises the hollow nature of his words.
However what the reality of that change means is quite significant in the history of nuclear weapons use planning. It no more means they will be used today than they were yesterday, let’s be clear about that. It’s only saying that if Russia chooses to, it could use nuclear weapons under a set of circumstances it had not previously clarified. This is Russia trying to deter a specific set of circumstances from affecting it so that it doesn’t happen, but even if it did occur and technically we’re already there, it doesn’t automatically mean the use of nuclear weapons.
Putin classified a nuclear power assisting a non-nuclear power in conventional attacks against Russia, as an attack by that nuclear power on Russia. As a threshold at which Russia could give itself the right to use nuclear weapons it’s novel. It’s also meaningless as any nuclear power can change its position on use as and when it sees fit and use them when it likes, if it felt the need. Just putting it down on paper and making it public means nothing.
It’s about deterrence. It’s increasing the risk for Russian opponents. But it hasn’t worked or been challenged because Putin wasn’t stupid enough to box himself in. Rather than test his resolve he signed the document afterthe ATACMS strikes happened so that the doctrine was only valid in the future, not the present.
Russian security isn’t threatened at an existential level by these attacks anymore than a drone strike. It was just about trying to slow down use for the longest possible period of time. In that Putin was unquestionably successful. It proves that the Biden-Sullivan beliefs on escalation were founded on fear and not critical thinking or logic, or apparently any real comprehension of Putin’s mind and how he operates.
Putin isn’t ready for or willing to accept, the chaos that would be unleashed on the international stage if he used even one tiny nuke. China would be apoplectic over it and non-critical allies like India, Brazil and Turkey for starters would walk away. Russia would become a pariah and his only ally the Kim of the North.
And then would come the military response. So no, Putin doesn’t plan nuclear weapons use in Ukraine.
So what will he do? Cable cutting and sabotage is his preferred way of doing things. Expect more of it. Undoubtedly I suspect, a major missile strike on Ukraine will almost certainly be the immediate reaction.
Russia is always hiding behind its nuclear weapons. It’s a solid fact that if Russia wasn’t a nuclear power this war would have been over and the west would have done far more directly. Russia’s army post war is going to be a mess, requiring major reform and re-equipment. It’ll be next to impotent until it refocuses. Reliance on nuclear weapons will be even more necessary.
Putin’s reflexive response psychological warfare has worn thin. It’s biggest victory was over Olaf Sholz, but he’s on his way out and not before time. I feel the age of Putin’s psychological impact has started to wane. It will however manifest in vindictive actions against the Ukrainian people in the form of more missile attacks.
MilitaryAnalysis.Bsky.social
The Analyst
Slava Ukraine!
 
CTID1977 said:
The blog of the Ukrainian Air Force fighters "Sonyashnik" reports that today’s combined strike was carried out on the Kursk region. Storm, MALD, HARM, GBU, HIMARS, FPV were used. The Su-24, Mirage, F-16, Su-27 and MiG-29 platforms were used. In the photos they published.

@yigal_levin
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I don't know where you got that info, but I'm curious if it said they actually flew over russian territory, or launched from distance in Ukraine ? Does it say or do you know what they were going after ?
 
cleavers said:
I don't know where you got that info, but I'm curious if it said they actually flew over russian territory, or launched from distance in Ukraine ? Does it say or do you know what they were going after ?
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they hit kursk the town. there's a video shot by local during these strikes. experts say it sounded like storm shadow
 
I think the real risk here is that now the leash is somewhat removed from Ukraine , Russia may well get their arses handed to them on the battle field, once a bully is seen publicly to be weak they either crumble or lash out with everything they have, no one knows which of the 2 will surface.
 
uwerosler28 said:
I think the real risk here is that now the leash is somewhat removed from Ukraine , Russia may well get their arses handed to them on the battle field, once a bully is seen publicly to be weak they either crumble or lash out with everything they have, no one knows which of the 2 will surface.
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They already are lashing out with everything they have IMO.

And whilst it certainly is satisfying to see these restrictions removed, it's highly unlikely to suddenly transform the battlefield, alas.
 
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