Russian invasion of Ukraine

Kirkstall Blue said:
UNITED NATIONS (AP) — In a win for Ukraine on the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion, the United States on Monday failed to get the U.N. General Assembly to approve its resolution urging an end to the war without mentioning Moscow’s aggression. And the assembly approved a dueling European-backed Ukrainian resolution demanding Russia immediately withdraw from Ukraine.

I’ve got a sinking feeling that Starmer will be able to shift Trump from his deal or no deal, blackmailing Ukraine
Macron visible drew back when Trump was speaking about “doing deals” Macron said we have provided 60% of loans and grants.
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What is pissing me off is the fact that everyone, including Ukraine are calling it 'the 3rd anniversary of the Russian invasion'.
They invaded in 2014, 3 years ago they merely launched another offensive.
 
AID CONTINUES TO FLOW FROM EUROPEAN ALLIES AS RUSSIA “DOUBLE SPEAKS”.

Canada and the Ukrainians signed a deal to assemble Roshel Senator APC’s in- country. Denmark contributed another €202m in aid to the construction of Bodhana artillery systems.
The Dutch government confirmed 12 of the 19 F-16’s
had been delivered and the other 7 would come this year.
13 European leaders stood in person with President Zelensky while many more including Prime Minister Keir Starmer attended via video. All offered their unequivocal support for Ukraine.
Meanwhile President Macron tried his best with 47 to Explain in person, that Putin will not stick to a treaty unless there are security guarantees. Who knows if he got through on a day when for the first time in history the US voted with Russia and its allies agains the west and democracy, refusing to condemn the invasion - and in its third anniversary.
Meanwhile public pronouncements being issued from Moscow make it clear Russian sees its ultimate objective as complete subjugation of Ukraine, that it won’t countenance even a ceasefire without the surrender of territory, and there will never be a full peace until Ukraine is subjugated.
47 simply wants the war to stop so that he can say he did his part and what he said. The quality of the deal is irrelevant to him.
Russia is busy trying to coerce and co-opt American business partners to revive its economy.
Meanwhile Russia has no intention of stopping its war economy or slowing down. Recent reporting shows that Putins regime is so bothered about demobilisation and the full extent of conditions on the front coming home with the truth, and a lot of angry, likely unemployed men with combat experience wandering Russia, it is loathe to let it happen.
A ceasefire would allow a regrouping, repositioning and re-equipping and that’s all they see it as useful for.
47 is being led into a trap and he knows it but doesn’t care. As long as he does what he says, after that he washes his hands of the whole thing.
Ukraine is being sold out by America. Europe has to stop it. Finally it seems, it understands that and is working together to make sure it doesn’t happen.
Nobody in Europe is afraid of 47 any more. We see him for what he is. We will not become victims of his bullying and lies, nor will we let Ukraine face the future alone!

The Analyst
Slava Ukraine !
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
Upon reflection I have to make further representations on the overall point you raised here. Given it was my post you quoted to make your statement.

I have moved my position hugely on this issue. As you will be aware given how much you lurk in this thread.

I have done this in the hope it will all end.

I’ve acknowledged that Ukraine will have to give up territory and cannot join NATO for the foreseeable. Just that it needs protecting from further aggression from Russia. And for that to mean something this time.

Which part of that last paragraph do you disagree with?
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I agree with all of it. I can't stress enough how much I believe my position to be a pro Ukrainian position, even if the majority don't see it that way.

Most wars start out being popular, optimism is high, morale is high, propaganda convinces people they can win.

Then your brothers, sons, fathers, friends, start dying. Your country is slowly destroyed, your communities are devastated as people are forced to flee.

Slowly but surely you begin to realise that the war isn't going to plan, you're losing territory, your economy is screwed, the optimism fades, your morale is badly affected.

I want the dying and destruction to stop. If I'm honest I never wanted it to start. I was calling for negotiations from day one, and yes, tough to take concessions to the enemy.

Looks like we might finally be getting there, but the hundreds of thousands of dead Ukrainian soldiers are never coming back. It's a tragedy. There are no winners, but at least the war weary can start the process of rebuilding.
 
EU offers its own ‘win-win’ minerals deal to Ukraine

Not wanting to be left out of the current global power politics in motion, the EU is also stepping in to offer a mineral deal with Ukraine.

“The added value Europe offers is that we will never demand a deal that’s not mutually beneficial,” top official Stéphane Séjourné says.

Europe's Commissioner for Industrial Strategy Stéphane Séjourné said he'd pitched the rival proposal to Ukrainian officials he met in Kyiv during a visit by the European Commission to mark the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

"Twenty-one of the 30 critical materials Europe needs can be provided by Ukraine in a win-win partnership," Séjourné said, according to AFP.

While this offer has advantages to Ukraine as a player in the European centre of global power politics, it is not known if it offers what Ukraine is really after: Security guarantees to protect its population.

Europe is talking (not yet decisively acting) about large defense investments and alternatives to NATO and the US. Hungary is playing its active russian global power part in blocking the attempts as much as possible.

At this point in time, Europe does not have the arms stocks in place to stand against russia without the US in a conventional land war, which would be needed to offer full security guarantees in the immediate short term. This notion may not suit the European mindset of its perceived strength, but the European arms cupboards are relatively empty and the European arms manufacturing is not currently matching the russian output (especially as the cost is much higher in Europe to produce the arms, compared to russia).

Possible options include accepting the bitter pill of purchasing US manufactured weapons in the short term, whilst building up a comprehensive European defense industry (which currently does not manufacture all types of weapon systems needed).

But all of this is talk, three years into the war against Ukraine, and Europe cannot really offer a realistic security guarantee on its own here and now, as a part of any deal on minerals and natural resources.

Hence, Starmer and Macron are making a (last ditch?) attempt to convince Trump to provide a back-stop. This is highly unlikely to happen (see previous posting).

In either case, from Ukraine's point of view, the European offer may be the only real option left if a deal with Trump does not provide genuine and trustworthy security guarantees.

J
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Fascinated to hear what concessions you think would have stopped the Russian tanks.
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No NATO, territorial concessions regarding the donbas.

The irony being these will likely form the basis of the current peace plan. Just 3 years and untold levels of death, destruction and human misery later.
 
Hgblue2 said:
No NATO, territorial concessions regarding the donbas.

The irony being these will likely form the basis of the current peace plan. Just 3 years and untold levels of death, destruction and human misery later.
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You're deluded, why were they trying to take over Homestol airport on day 1 if they were only interested in Donbas? The reason they bleat on about NATO so much is that's the only thing that can stop russia invading sovereign countries.

He did a big speech prior to the latest invasion saying Ukraine is Russia and that they have a Nazi government that they need to remove. But no you think no NATO and giving them 20% of Ukraine would have stopped it all.

And the fake concern for the deaths doesn't wash with me one bit, people are fighting for their survival. In the first year there was footage of civilians being shot and thrown in mass graves, all of that would still happen just on the hush and on a bigger scale until Ukraine was fully controlled.
 
Hgblue2 said:
No NATO, territorial concessions regarding the donbas.

The irony being these will likely form the basis of the current peace plan. Just 3 years and untold levels of death, destruction and human misery later.
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Putin has claimed Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk. You are proposing that if Zelensky had offered these to Russia and promised never to have joined NATO, there would have been no war?

Do I have that correct?
 
Scottyboi said:
He did a big speech prior to the latest invasion saying Ukraine is Russia and that they have a Nazi government that they need to remove.
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Yes, the supreme irony here is that Putin claimed that Ukraine is run by Nazi drug addicts (yes, really). The Jewish comedian Zelensky is of course a fairly unlikely Nazi, and shows no obvious symptoms of addiction.

Yet now Putin looks likely to be saved from his historic folly by a Nazi saluting self affirmed ketamine user in the service of a president who is publicly advocating the Nazi ideology that Fuhrer and state are indivisible.

Funny old world.
 
Hgblue2 said:
I agree with all of it. I can't stress enough how much I believe my position to be a pro Ukrainian position, even if the majority don't see it that way.

Most wars start out being popular, optimism is high, morale is high, propaganda convinces people they can win.

Then your brothers, sons, fathers, friends, start dying. Your country is slowly destroyed, your communities are devastated as people are forced to flee.

Slowly but surely you begin to realise that the war isn't going to plan, you're losing territory, your economy is screwed, the optimism fades, your morale is badly affected.

I want the dying and destruction to stop. If I'm honest I never wanted it to start. I was calling for negotiations from day one, and yes, tough to take concessions to the enemy.

Looks like we might finally be getting there, but the hundreds of thousands of dead Ukrainian soldiers are never coming back. It's a tragedy. There are no winners, but at least the war weary can start the process of rebuilding.
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tbf, you did stridently predict early on that Russia’s military might would be irresistible which has proven not to be the case; far from it. If that had been the case then the whole of Ukraine would now effectively be living under a tyrannical and oppressive state with little prospect of that ever changing, and on that basis my guess would be that upon sober reflection in years to come, most Ukrainians, even those who had lost loved ones, would think the sacrifice, terrible though it was, was worthwhile.

You have previously stated that you are under no illusions what Russia is, and if that is correct (and I have no reason to doubt you) then I would suggest you consider what you would do, and what you would be prepared to sacrifice if this country was invaded by Russia. I know I’ve asked that question of myself and of those I hold dear, and I couldn’t in all conscience do nothing.
 
Hgblue2 said:
No NATO, territorial concessions regarding the donbas.

The irony being these will likely form the basis of the current peace plan. Just 3 years and untold levels of death, destruction and human misery later.
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That's the outcome if a pacifist thinks he can negotiate with a brutal authoritarian expansionist who wants more power and land...

But its' typical. Pre putin's brutal war Green Party in Germany were pacifists. They believed in a peaceful world - like myself. We knew that we need our budget for the transition of our economy to stop mass extinction (a dead topic nowadays) and global warming (finished as a topic as well). Defence spending sounded insane and a waste.

Now - after the shock that there are other people on earth in the 21st century who easily would kill and sacrifice millions of lives for even more power - Green voters have the HIGHEST agreement to supporting Ukraine and heavily upping defence spending. Higher than conservatives and anybody else!

That's the fate of a pacifist. It's nice to be one in times of peace, but when all of a sudden war steps in your life, a pacifist is useless as he will just be blown away while waving his white flag.

It's easy to have an opinion about a war somewhere else.

But you have to answer the question as if the shells would come closer to your own house and your daughter starts crying. And the shelling won't stop. What about your country, your way of life, family, friends and the apple tree in your garden where your wife said "yes"?

And suddenly you realize you have no choice but somehow have to stand up even if you would like to run away. Shite options, eh?
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
tbf, you did stridently predict early on that Russia’s military might would be irresistible which has proven not to be the case; far from it. If that had been the case then the whole of Ukraine would now effectively be living under a tyrannical and oppressive state with little prospect of that ever changing, and on that basis my guess would be that upon sober reflection in years to come, most Ukrainians, even those who had lost loved ones, would think the sacrifice, terrible though it was, was worthwhile.

You have previously stated that you are under no illusions what Russia is, and if that is correct (and I have no reason to doubt you) then I would suggest you consider what you would do, and what you would be prepared to sacrifice if this country was invaded by Russia. I know I’ve asked that question of myself and of those I hold dear, and I couldn’t in all conscience do nothing.
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Now that is a good question. I suspect I would have said 'fuck you' and supported any and all efforts to defeat the enemy. I have two lads of fighting age and I'm sure they would be prepared to fight and die to defend this country if push ever came to shove. How would I feel 3 years down the line when my lads came home in body bags and the war looks as though it's going badly?

So I understand why people feel so strongly that Ukraine should be supported. This is why I don't post regularly in this thread, because I don't want to come across as lacking in empathy for the situation the Ukrainians find themselves in. I was wrong about Russia quickly overpowering Ukraine, but I wasn't wrong about this war being a disaster for Ukraine. I just feel the pragmatic course of action is to stop the carnage, keep your youngsters alive, sign a peace treaty, and live to fight another day.

Edit. I don’t mean fight literally.
 
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