EU referendum

[BlueHammer85]

Sky News has uncovered the first statistical evidence that investors are shifting billions of pounds out of British assets in light of the EU referendum.

Some £65bn either left the UK or was converted into other currencies in March and April - the fastest rate since the financial crisis in early 2009.

The figures, published by the Bank of England in its monthly register of banking statistics, represent the first evidence of capital flight from the UK - where money rapidly flows out of a country in response to concerns over economic instability.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

Do you genuinely not understand, or are you simply wanting an argument? I only ask because the threat to UK jobs is so blindingly obvious that only a complete fool or a troll could ignore it and I am assuming you are neither.

But on the basis that we can have a sensible discussion, you aware that the car manufacturing business is incredibly competitive and operates on small margins at best (unless you are Porsche)? Is it not obvious to you that if a business that set up in the UK specifically with the intention of manufacturing cars for export across Europe is faced with having it's products subject to import duty, then it might decide to move production to elsewhere in the UK? Surely that is obvious.

The CEO of Nissan some years back said they would have to reconsider their strategy if the UK ever decide to leave the EU. How much more evidence do you need?

So Porsche only sell cars in Europe and ford only in the USA?

The point you are making is if we are out of the Eu we cannot trade with the Eu and that is not correct. Nissan will be able to sell cars in the eu. The cars will be produced to comply with eu laws and regs.

Nissan are not going to close an entire factory and relocate to France on if it operates on small margins.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Sky News has uncovered the first statistical evidence that investors are shifting billions of pounds out of British assets in light of the EU referendum.

Some £65bn either left the UK or was converted into other currencies in March and April - the fastest rate since the financial crisis in early 2009.

The figures, published by the Bank of England in its monthly register of banking statistics, represent the first evidence of capital flight from the UK - where money rapidly flows out of a country in response to concerns over economic instability.

I am not remotely surprised. I am seriously considering moving significant money into UK-centred funds right now because I am expecting a Remain vote and a sharp rise in the FTSE immediately afterwards. But it is a risk, since a Brexit win would mean the FTSE drops sharply and I could lose my shirt and being a wimp, I am nervous about it.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

You mean the British beef, manufactured in the UK and sold in the UK? In the British buns, manufactured in the UK and sold in the UK? That MacDonalds? If they wanted to import American beef and american buns, they'd have to pay import duty. And guess what? They choose not to for that very reason.

You have with your OWN example demonstrated the flaw in your own argument.

They would pay vat on the British stuff?

 

[yep]

Perhaps this will help you make up your mind!

 

[Monkfish]

Oddschecker showing 88.3% of "bets" are for leave, 11.7% for remain.

There must be huge sums being lumped on the 11.7% of bets for remain. The odds are Remain 1/3 Leave 5/2!

??? mine is still showing 57% of bets for remain, was 87% for leave a few weeks ago, I assume oddschecker takes into account a 24 hour period? (ish)

I cannot see anything on the site that tells you the period it takes into account

 

[blueinsa]

Sky News has uncovered the first statistical evidence that investors are shifting billions of pounds out of British assets in light of the EU referendum.

Some £65bn either left the UK or was converted into other currencies in March and April - the fastest rate since the financial crisis in early 2009.

The figures, published by the Bank of England in its monthly register of banking statistics, represent the first evidence of capital flight from the UK - where money rapidly flows out of a country in response to concerns over economic instability.

Given its a statistic that has been kept since at least early 2009 and no doubt way before then, what was the excuse before the referendum was announced lol?

 

[Chippy_boy]

So Porsche only sell cars in Europe and ford only in the USA?

The point you are making is if we are out of the Eu we cannot trade with the Eu and that is not correct. Nissan will be able to sell cars in the eu. The cars will be produced to comply with eu laws and regs.

Nissan are not going to close an entire factory and relocate to France on if it operates on small margins.

I am not making the point that we cannot trade with the EU? No-one's making that point and it would be a stupid and wrong suggestion. But businesses absolutely DO make their investment decisions for things like car plants based on factorslike import tariffs. And they might very well decide to leave the UK, or to shut the UK plant rather than another one, if they have excess capacity for example. You're in denial if you cannot get your head around this.

 

[BrianW]

Of course we can continue to trade with the EU!

But if we negotiate access to the single market (no tariffs) it's almost certain (almost as certain that the sun will rise tomorrow) that we will have to accept free movement of EU citizens, and we will probably have to pay some kind of subscription (like Norway) for the privilege.

If we decide not to go for that, and quit the EEA we can, in theory, control immigration. (However as we could have been controlling non-EU immigration all along, we probably won't bother in reality.) But we will then have to pay the WTO standard tariffs of 2.5% on exports and indeed on imports. So our exports to the EU will automatically rise in price as will our imports from the EU.

Why on earth would the EU give us all the benefits of being in the club and none of the costs or disbenefits? If they did - and they won't - then every member of the EU would want the same and the whole thing would fall apart.

To put it another way, you can't expect to have your bun and your penny as well. We should also consider the likely costs of building a wall across Ireland, as otherwise that land frontier will be an absolute haven for smuggling.

 

[west didsblue]

I am not making the point that we cannot trade with the EU? No-one's making that point and it would be a stupid and wrong suggestion. But businesses absolutely DO make their investment decisions for things like car plants based on factorslike import tariffs. And they might very well decide to leave the UK, or to shut the UK plant rather than another one, if they have excess capacity for example. You're in denial if you cannot get your head around this.

Absolutely right. Big business is psychopathic when it comes to big decisions. If their financial experts say there'll be a better rate of return over the next 10 years by relocating to another country, they'll do it. Sentiment won't come into it. That could easily happen even to seemingly profitable plants if they believe they will make more elsewhere. Import tariffs are a factor like everything else.

 

[FanchesterCity]

Today, Nissan can use any EU workers at its plant.
It can avoid EU taxes (that it would have to pay outside the EU) because it's manufacturing in the UK
It can transport parts and completed vehicles with relative ease to and from the UK via border controls that let EU trade through quicker, and again don't pay taxes on this.
It can produce one vehicle and know that it meets EU regulations across the board.

If the UK leaves -
It can't use workers from across the EU (good for UK workers, but a negative for Nissan, albeit only a small negative)
It will have to pay taxes on vehicles 'exported' to the EU and on any parts bought from within the EU
The costs of transporting the parts and finished vehicles will increase, with longer border delays too.
Over time, it may have to deal with a UK regulation car as well as an EU one. Unlikely initially, but in time, divergence will happen (because that's why we're leaving the EU right - to diverge).
It could opt to shift more manufacturing to Spain (where it's already got a plant inside the EU) or to Russian where it's already got a plant outside the EU and consolidate it's close but not in EU manufacturing there.
It also has R&D in Bedfordshire and R&D in Germany. It could choose to consolidate those to Germany too.

Nissan are unlikely to just up-sticks and leave, because they've invested in Juke production very recently, but they may well reconsider future investment and will certainly at least 'shop around' for optimal locations.

Now you can make a case that for every potential Nissan loss, there's another business willing to step into their shoes as a result of leaving. But it's quite a gamble.

 

[YPhrunts]

I am not remotely surprised. I am seriously considering moving significant money into UK-centred funds right now because I am expecting a Remain vote and a sharp rise in the FTSE immediately afterwards. But it is a risk, since a Brexit win would mean the FTSE drops sharply and I could lose my shirt and being a wimp, I am nervous about it.

I had some respect for your view until I read that. You're just another one on the make. So all this stuff you've written is just to maintain the status quo so that you can make a mint. Nice.

 

[Chippy_boy]

They would pay vat on the British stuff?

I don't know what you're trying to suggest by that. VAT rules on food, hot or cold, take away or eat in are complex in their own right.

The point is, there is no import duty on british food used in the UK, but there would be on American food brought into the UK. And Macdonalds use UK sourced food.

(Actually I am not suggesting that they only use UK-sourced food because of the duty advantage - there's a whole load of reasons why they do, and principally simply because it's more cost effective. It was you who brought up MacDonalds and I merely point out the flaw in your argument.)

 

[Chippy_boy]

I had some respect for your view until I read that. You're just another one on the make. So all this stuff you've written is just to maintain the status quo so that you can make a mint. Nice.

I am happy you've found a box to put me in so you can disregard everything I say. Along with the other boxes you have to put everyone else in so you can disregard everything they say. Please carry on. If you find something you don't like, try to find a reason to ignore it. Go ahead.

Or maybe you could actually consider the points being debated? Nah, don't bother.

 

[TRUE BLUE NO1]

Cameron has made a speech today outlining 6 common lies of the Brexit campaign – all are commonly quoted as fact on here:

That the UK is liable for future eurozone bailouts. Cameron says his EU renegotiation means Britain is categorically not liable.
That Britain’s EU rebate is at risk. Cameron says the British prime minister has a veto on changes to the rebate.
That Britain has given up its ability to veto EU treaties. The prime minister says there is nothing in the EU renegotiation that relinquishes the UK’s veto.
That Britain cannot stop overall EU spending from going up. Cameron says the EU budget is set in stone until 2020 and can only be changed with the consent of all countries.
That the UK is powerless to stop itself becoming part of an EU army. He says Britain has a “rock solid veto” on EU foreign and defence policy.
That leaving the EU would save Britain £8bn. He says this claim was debunked on Monday by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, which said a Brexit would mean spending less on pubic services, or taxing more, or borrowing more.

Thanks for posting this mate.......sadly the "outs" wont be interested in the truth/facts...

 

[SWP's back]

I am not remotely surprised. I am seriously considering moving significant money into UK-centred funds right now because I am expecting a Remain vote and a sharp rise in the FTSE immediately afterwards. But it is a risk, since a Brexit win would mean the FTSE drops sharply and I could lose my shirt and being a wimp, I am nervous about it.

Why would you lose your shirt? Would you immediately encash on seeing a drop in the FTSE?

 

[yep]

Today, Nissan can use any EU workers at its plant.
It can avoid EU taxes (that it would have to pay outside the EU) because it's manufacturing in the UK
It can transport parts and completed vehicles with relative ease to and from the UK via border controls that let EU trade through quicker, and again don't pay taxes on this.
It can produce one vehicle and know that it meets EU regulations across the board.

If the UK leaves -
It can't use workers from across the EU (good for UK workers, but a negative for Nissan, albeit only a small negative)
It will have to pay taxes on vehicles 'exported' to the EU and on any parts bought from within the EU
The costs of transporting the parts and finished vehicles will increase, with longer border delays too.
Over time, it may have to deal with a UK regulation car as well as an EU one. Unlikely initially, but in time, divergence will happen (because that's why we're leaving the EU right - to diverge).
It could opt to shift more manufacturing to Spain (where it's already got a plant inside the EU) or to Russian where it's already got a plant outside the EU and consolidate it's close but not in EU manufacturing there.
It also has R&D in Bedfordshire and R&D in Germany. It could choose to consolidate those to Germany too.

Nissan are unlikely to just up-sticks and leave, because they've invested in Juke production very recently, but they may well reconsider future investment and will certainly at least 'shop around' for optimal locations.

Now you can make a case that for every potential Nissan loss, there's another business willing to step into their shoes as a result of leaving. But it's quite a gamble.

Trevor Mann, Chief Performance Officer, Nissan: 'If there was a future trade agreement between the UK and EU then it wouldn't make a lot of difference' (Financial Times, 11 January 2016, link).

 

[SWP's back]

I had some respect for your view until I read that. You're just another one on the make. So all this stuff you've written is just to maintain the status quo so that you can make a mint. Nice.

Nothing wrong with wanting to maximise a position. Why shouldn't he make money on a result he expects and believes in?

 

[FanchesterCity]

Whats the difference between their could and the brexit could?

If you say 'we could suffer from businesses leaving' it's more accurate than saying 'we would prosper by attracting new business'

 

[Mike N]

what would you have liked him to come back more with ?

I think it's more relevant that the general reaction to what concessions he won was that it was very little, I seem to remember someone described it as 'thin gruel'.

A much better example of the insignicance of the concessions he secured for the UK is that they are never mentioned by the Remain campaign, it really is as if they never happened.