EU referendum

[foxy]

The BBC are calling for the regist to vote to be extended after the website crashed yesterday. Why are ignorant idiots leaving it so late to register? Any person who's aware would have signed up in time.

 

[Chippy_boy]

I am not and I expected you to come back and say they might do if the Eu offered a whopping grant to Nissan to move.

But equally plenty of countries outside the European trade happily trade with the Eu. We would be in the same boat.

I think you're arguing with yourself here mate. No-one is suggesting that the UK won't be able to continue to trade with the EU.

But what you seem to be unable (or unwilling) to grasp is that this is not a boolean thing, it's a question of degree. If cars made in the UK become 10% more expensive in the EU because of import duties, tariffs and other supply chain costs, then the manufacturers of those cars will look at the bigger picture and when the time comes for investment decisions, they may decide to move production elsewhere. Can you REALLY not grasp this? Or is it simply that you don't want (like most Brexit supporter) to admit it for fear of weakening your position?

 

[FanchesterCity]

I think you're arguing with yourself here mate. No-one is suggesting that the UK won't be able to continue to trade with the EU.

But what you seem to be unable (or unwilling) to grasp is that this in a boolean thing, it's a question of degree. If cars made in the UK become 10% more expensive in the EU because of import duties, tariffs and other supply chain costs, then the manufacturers of those cars will look at the bigger picture and when the time comes for investment decisions, they may decide to move production elsewhere. Can you REALLY not grasp this? Or is it simply that you don't want (like most Brexit supporter) to admit it for fear of weakening your position?

Absolutely correct. Nobody supporting 'in' is saying we won't trade! - it's the 'outs' inventing this scenario then disproving it themselves. It's all about the change in conditions and how that will affect business. For the better or for the worse - depending on which view you take.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Seeing as you are so knowledgeable (if tetchy) on this point, how big an import duty would it take to frighten them off? What about 2%, for argument's sake?

I don't know - I am not in the car manufacturing business (although I have had various car manufacturers as customers over the years and got to understand their businesses a little). I was under the impression that the duty on UK goods if we were outside the EU might be in the 2% range, but then I heard the day before yesterday that it's 10% for American cars, which if true and applied to the UK would be curtains for the UK car industry.

Even at 2%, I think it would be a significant problem. I wouldn't imagine Toyota or Honda or whoever saying right that's it we're closing on Friday, but these businesses have plants all of the world and some in the EU and they can choose to make different models in different places, so they could shift production out of the UK and cut back on shifts and employment levels. Even if they do none of that specifically, if sales are reduced, businesses make cuts in order to maintain profitability which means they get rid of people. In extremis, they could close plants altogether if there became significant excess capacity globally. These are very real risks indeed.

Incidentally, I don't know what it would do to JLR who are already struggling with a huge drop in demand in China. Depressed sales into Europe wouldn't do them any favours.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Trevor Mann, Chief Performance Officer, Nissan: 'If there was a future trade agreement between the UK and EU then it wouldn't make a lot of difference' (Financial Times, 11 January 2016, link).

So you're saying if there's no trade agreement (which there well might not be) then we're fucked? I guess that wasn't the point you were trying to make, but thanks for highlighting it.

By the way, when asked how Nissan would react if the UK were to leave the EU, Chief Executive Mr Ghosn said: "If anything has to change, we [would] need to reconsider our strategy and our investments for the future."

 

[FanchesterCity]

I think for the Nissan example (but applicable to all companies) - it may not be a simple matter of a flat levy (say 2%) who knows that individual parts may cost? Rubber tyres might incur 3%, electronics 1% etc, and then there's the issue of EU migrant labour. I've no idea how many EU citizens Nissan employs in the UK, but I'm certain SOME companies employ EU workers (like BAE for instance). They will ultimately have to be replaced with UK workers (which seems good for UK jobs, but only if we have the people with the right skills to do that work).
Then if Farage is correct, and wages will rise - then Nissan's labour costs will also rise. Nobody knows the tipping point at which the UK ceases to be attractive, but every rise is production costs pushes a company closer to that tipping point.

 

[Chippy_boy]

I think for the Nissan example (but applicable to all companies) - it may not be a simple matter of a flat levy (say 2%) who knows that individual parts may cost? Rubber tyres might incur 3%, electronics 1% etc, and then there's the issue of EU migrant labour. I've no idea how many EU citizens Nissan employs in the UK, but I'm certain SOME companies employ EU workers (like BAE for instance). They will ultimately have to be replaced with UK workers (which seems good for UK jobs, but only if we have the people with the right skills to do that work).
Then if Farage is correct, and wages will rise - then Nissan's labour costs will also rise. Nobody knows the tipping point at which the UK ceases to be attractive, but every rise is production costs pushes a company closer to that tipping point.

Yep. And even if they never get to that tipping point, if they sell less cars, then the make less money and they need to reduce costs and that means employing less people.

And by the way, I picked Nissan out of the air as as simple example to counter someone's claim that "either way we'll be fine", highlighting the fact that if you lost your job, you might not think things were "fine". I didn't do any particular research on Nissan, I could have chosen any large foreign corporate.

 

[BrianW]

Bottom line is that a post-Brexit government will have a choice.

1. Negotiate access to the single market which will involve accepting free movement of EU people and paying some sort of subscription.
2. Come out of the EEA, decide who can come here (in theory) and deal with tariff barriers.

1. Is in effect the deal we have now, but on worse terms. The good news is that we would be able to have our own farming and fisheries policies.
2. Would be ruinous to the economy.

I think it really is that binary. And I believe any responsible government (that is any one not composed entirely of swivel-eyed loons) would go for option 1. Because however little some people like 'unchecked' immigration, they are going to like being on JSA a lot less.

Working this out is what has convinced me to vote 'in'. I honestly think many out voters are being sold a pup, a fantasy, something that simply can't be delivered. If people look at the reality, and still want out, then fair dos to them. If I was a billionaire, with most of my assets abroad, I might take the chance.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

In an age where Uber don't own care, Air BnB don't own hotels and Twitter doesn't have any journalists on its staff etc

Surely it is better to be independent and have the ability to be more agile in an ever changing world of technology, security and business etc rather than have to arrive at agreements with 27 other nations with different cultures and agendas?

Where Uber is making it virtually impossible for many taxi drivers to earn a living. We need economic solutions that work across society!

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Not only will it be more right wing, it will also be totally pre-occupied with dealing with the consequences of Brexit. The economy, health, education etc will not get a look in.

I tend to agree Cibaman. I'm not a fan on uncontrolled immigration but before a points system came in we would probably see a rush of EU migrants coming here that will require more help for schools and the NHS!

 

[CTID1988]

Theres an "outer" on my facebook who is such a twat. Keeps posting articles from The Daily Express, the biggest shit rag of a paper going surely, and he put a video of him burning a "stay in the eu" leaflet last night in his back garden. What a rebel.
No other reason has persuaded me to vote either way other than this, il be voting to stay purely to spite this anus

 

[EalingBlue2]

Come on BJ, I didn't watch it but know his exact word was the UK 'survive' outside the EU



Airbnb 60 employees
And agile businesses can relocate very easily, one of the problems with leaving a trading block

60 people who will contribute to driving down wages so hotels can compete as well

 

[Pino]

We already have had Obama interfering in the Brexit vote, by stating the UK would go to the end of the queue in any future trade deals with the US.
Now his Vice President Joe Biden is on his way to the UK to enforce the message.
Cameron is calling in his big guns in an attempt to sway the vote.
This is a blatant interference in the Sovereign will of the electorate by a Foreign Power. Surely, the Brexit referendum has rattled the cages of the Washington hegemon and their Globalist ambitions. This Brexit vote is clearly the most important to the UK since the Magna Carta.
It is obvious that Europe and the UK are colonies of the US when they send their DOGCATCHERS to enforce the message.
Expect much use of the propaganda tactic of FUD, ( Fear,Doubt,Uncertainty) in the coming weeks.
No doubt the ‘dirty tricks’ department will be involved in vote manipulation by the usual means of ballot stuffing, postal and proxy vote misrepresentation.
Many Lazarus votes by the registered dead is another favourite tactic.
Some degree of protection must be enforced ,such as exit polls and count surveillance.
As previously stated, lessons are to be learned from the recent Scots referendum and the General Election, where some results were suspicious.
The UK population is sleepwalking into a totalitarian world of exploitation by a minority of vested interests. Brexit is the last hope of escaping this nightmare of corporate domination, which has given us austerity, neo-liberalism, endless wars and refugees.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Bottom line is that a post-Brexit government will have a choice.

1. Negotiate access to the single market which will involve accepting free movement of EU people and paying some sort of subscription.
2. Come out of the EEA, decide who can come here (in theory) and deal with tariff barriers.

1. Is in effect the deal we have now, but on worse terms. The good news is that we would be able to have our own farming and fisheries policies.
2. Would be ruinous to the economy.

I think it really is that binary. And I believe any responsible government (that is any one not composed entirely of swivel-eyed loons) would go for option 1. Because however little some people like 'unchecked' immigration, they are going to like being on JSA a lot less.

Working this out is what has convinced me to vote 'in'. I honestly think many out voters are being sold a pup, a fantasy, something that simply can't be delivered. If people look at the reality, and still want out, then fair dos to them. If I was a billionaire, with most of my assets abroad, I might take the chance.

I agree Brian.

I've stated this numerous times before but it's been lost over the 900 pages, but there are very real reasons why a no-strings, tariff-free, trade deal CANNOT happen. Putting aside for one moment the fact that the French for one and probably other nations too would love to stick two fingers up at us, the EU cannot agree to what we would seek because (a) it would mean the UK had an unfair competitive advantage compared to EU businesses, (b) other nations would likely want the same and it could lead to the break up of the EU, (c) it's not in the interest of the smaller countries the vast majority of whom don't export much to us and yet whose agreement would be needed and (d) it could lead to foreign businesses leaving EU countries to move to the UK with our more flexible labour market, less social legislation / cost and yet have all the access to the EU.

So the EU cannot agree to what we would seek. At the same time, I cannot see Boris agreeing to free movement of labour or signing up to the Working Time Directive or supremecy of the European Courts either. It would be politically unacceptable to have won on a ticket of getting rid of those things and then signing us up to them again.

So we would very likely have years of impasse and ultimately no trade deal at all, in my view.

 

[Chippy_boy]

We already have had Obama interfering in the Brexit vote, by stating the UK would go to the end of the queue in any future trade deals with the US.
Now his Vice President Joe Biden is on his way to the UK to enforce the message.
Cameron is calling in his big guns in an attempt to sway the vote.
This is a blatant interference in the Sovereign will of the electorate by a Foreign Power. Surely, the Brexit referendum has rattled the cages of the Washington hegemon and their Globalist ambitions. This Brexit vote is clearly the most important to the UK since the Magna Carta.
It is obvious that Europe and the UK are colonies of the US when they send their DOGCATCHERS to enforce the message.
Expect much use of the propaganda tactic of FUD, ( Fear,Doubt,Uncertainty) in the coming weeks.
No doubt the ‘dirty tricks’ department will be involved in vote manipulation by the usual means of ballot stuffing, postal and proxy vote misrepresentation.
Many Lazarus votes by the registered dead is another favourite tactic.
Some degree of protection must be enforced ,such as exit polls and count surveillance.
As previously stated, lessons are to be learned from the recent Scots referendum and the General Election, where some results were suspicious.
The UK population is sleepwalking into a totalitarian world of exploitation by a minority of vested interests. Brexit is the last hope of escaping this nightmare of corporate domination, which has given us austerity, neo-liberalism, endless wars and refugees.

Citizen Smith lives! FIght on Comrade!

 

[TRUE BLUE NO1]

The BBC are calling for the regist to vote to be extended after the website crashed yesterday. Why are ignorant idiots leaving it so late to register? Any person who's aware would have signed up in time.

I spoke to someone this week that didnt even know when the vote was taking place.....so this doesnt surprise me!;)

 

[Helmet Cole]

I agree Brian.

I've stated this numerous times before but it's been lost over the 900 pages, but there are very real reasons why a no-strings, tariff-free, trade deal CANNOT happen. Putting aside for one moment the fact that the French for one and probably other nations too would love to stick two fingers up at us, the EU cannot agree to what we would seek because (a) it would mean the UK had an unfair competitive advantage compared to EU businesses, (b) other nations would likely want the same and it could lead to the break up of the EU, (c) it's not in the interest of the smaller countries the vast majority of whom don't export much to us and yet whose agreement would be needed and (d) it could lead to foreign businesses leaving EU countries to move to the UK with our more flexible labour market, less social legislation / cost and yet have all the access to the EU.

So the EU cannot agree to what we would seek. At the same time, I cannot see Boris agreeing to free movement of labour or signing up to the Working Time Directive or supremecy of the European Courts either. It would be politically unacceptable to have won on a ticket of getting rid of those things and then signing us up to them again.

So we would very likely have years of impasse and ultimately no trade deal at all, in my view.

Can't argue with any of that, and I'm not sure people realise that an out vote would not mean we were out on the 24th of June, but rather we would begin the process of leaving which would take at least two years - and that's if there were no snags.
Happily this delay will allow us to do business on existing terms while we negotiate said trade deals.
Happy fucking days - out.

 

[TRUE BLUE NO1]

I don't know - I am not in the car manufacturing business (although I have had various car manufacturers as customers over the years and got to understand their businesses a little). I was under the impression that the duty on UK goods if we were outside the EU might be in the 2% range, but then I heard the day before yesterday that it's 10% for American cars, which if true and applied to the UK would be curtains for the UK car industry.

Even at 2%, I think it would be a significant problem. I wouldn't imagine Toyota or Honda or whoever saying right that's it we're closing on Friday, but these businesses have plants all of the world and some in the EU and they can choose to make different models in different places, so they could shift production out of the UK and cut back on shifts and employment levels. Even if they do none of that specifically, if sales are reduced, businesses make cuts in order to maintain profitability which means they get rid of people. In extremis, they could close plants altogether if there became significant excess capacity globally. These are very real risks indeed.

Incidentally, I don't know what it would do to JLR who are already struggling with a huge drop in demand in China. Depressed sales into Europe wouldn't do them any favours.

excellent comments mate...

 

[FanchesterCity]

We already have had Obama interfering in the Brexit vote, by stating the UK would go to the end of the queue in any future trade deals with the US.
Now his Vice President Joe Biden is on his way to the UK to enforce the message.
Cameron is calling in his big guns in an attempt to sway the vote.
This is a blatant interference in the Sovereign will of the electorate by a Foreign Power. Surely, the Brexit referendum has rattled the cages of the Washington hegemon and their Globalist ambitions. This Brexit vote is clearly the most important to the UK since the Magna Carta.
It is obvious that Europe and the UK are colonies of the US when they send their DOGCATCHERS to enforce the message.
Expect much use of the propaganda tactic of FUD, ( Fear,Doubt,Uncertainty) in the coming weeks.
No doubt the ‘dirty tricks’ department will be involved in vote manipulation by the usual means of ballot stuffing, postal and proxy vote misrepresentation.
Many Lazarus votes by the registered dead is another favourite tactic.
Some degree of protection must be enforced ,such as exit polls and count surveillance.
As previously stated, lessons are to be learned from the recent Scots referendum and the General Election, where some results were suspicious.
The UK population is sleepwalking into a totalitarian world of exploitation by a minority of vested interests. Brexit is the last hope of escaping this nightmare of corporate domination, which has given us austerity, neo-liberalism, endless wars and refugees.

If we are sleepwalking into exploitation by a minority of vested interests - particularly corporate, the EU's actually stood up to the likes of Google and Apple far more than the UK has - it's actually one of the strengths of France in particular (but Germany also) who place far greater emphasis on privacy than the UK does (we're one of the world's most surveilled nations and our media massively subject to the Murdoch empire.

 

[Chippy_boy]

I tend to agree Cibaman. I'm not a fan on uncontrolled immigration but before a points system came in we would probably see a rush of EU migrants coming here that will require more help for schools and the NHS!

For me, the immigration issue - not the current numbers particularly, more the fact that it is completely out of control - is by far my biggest concern about Remain. I still think that the downsides of leaving would be far, far worse, but that's not to downplay immigration because it is a real challenge.

I wish Cameron instead of trying to claim that he's fixed it with his no-in-work-benefits-for-4-years fudge, would simply be open and honest and say yes, immigration is a real challenge and we're going to do everything we can to gain the support of other like minded nations - many of which are also very concerned - to try to get treaty change so some controls can be introduced.

No-one believes that the current concessions he's gained are going to fix the immigration issue and trying to pretend that they will, just makes him look shifty or incompetent, imo. And he should be more specific and proactive about the support he's going to put in place to help manage the current numbers coming in. If they are all contributing xbillion to the exchequer, then why not suggest that 100% of that money will channeled into schools, housing and the NHS for example?

The fact is we do need an influx of young talent to support us as the population gets older, so it's not a terrible thing if managed properly. And I do think some controls on numbers could be successfully negotiated. I know the EU said no last time, but public opinion across the EU is rapidly shifting.