EU referendum

[FanchesterCity]

Can't argue with any of that, and I'm not sure people realise that an out vote would not mean we were out on the 24th of June, but rather we would begin the process of leaving which would take at least two years - and that's if there were no snags.
Happily this delay will allow us to do business on existing terms while we negotiate said trade deals.
Happy fucking days - out.

The markets will react the SECOND after the result if known (in reality, they even speculate before). They don't wait two years whilst we plan how to transition out.
People wonder what will happen about their two year guarantee on a product bought in Europe, or vice versa for EU consumers buying UK goods.
Businesses that don't know the outcome of those 'in the pipeline' trade deals have increased uncertainty - which erodes investor confidence.

It starts on day one.

 

[Chippy_boy]

If we are sleepwalking into exploitation by a minority of vested interests - particularly corporate, the EU's actually stood up to the likes of Google and Apple far more than the UK has - it's actually one of the strengths of France in particular (but Germany also) who place far greater emphasis on privacy than the UK does (we're one of the world's most surveilled nations and our media massively subject to the Murdoch empire.

It's a supreme irony that the EU is far more left wing than the current UK government and INFINITELY more left wing than a UK government led by the right wing of the Tory party, post Brexit. And yet Brexit has significant support amongst the left wing voters in the UK. Quite bizarre.

 

[FanchesterCity]

For me, the immigration issue - not the current numbers particularly, more the fact that it is completely out of control - is by far my biggest concern about Remain. I still think that the downsides of leaving would be far, far worse, but that's not to downplay immigration because it is a real challenge.

I wish Cameron instead of trying to claim that he's fixed it with his no-in-work-benefits-for-4-years fudge, would simply be open and honest and say yes, immigration is a real challenge and we're going to do everything we can to gain the support of other like minded nations - many of which are also very concerned - to try to get treaty change so some controls can be introduced.

No-one believes that the current concessions he's gained are going to fix the immigration issue and trying to pretend that they will, just makes him look shifty or incompetent, imo. And he should be more specific and proactive about the support he's going to put in place to help manage the current numbers coming in. If they are all contributing xbillion to the exchequer, then why not suggest that 100% of that money will channeled into schools, housing and the NHS for example?

The fact is we do need an influx of young talent to support us as the population gets older, so it's not a terrible thing if managed properly. And I do think some controls on numbers could be successfully negotiated. I know the EU said no last time, but public opinion across the EU is rapidly shifting.

I'm concerned about the immigration mess too - at the same time, I blame successive UK governments for incompetence in managing the 50% of immigrants who are not from the EU, and that gives me very little faith that leaving the EU will improve things much. We've not managed to deal with the current 50% that IS under our control - so what hope for managing all 100% of it?
If we invest massively on improved border control, then yes, we can tackle it, but that will cost us. Another fact than brexit conveniently overlook.

 

[Chippy_boy]

The markets will react the SECOND after the result if known (in reality, they even speculate before). They don't wait two years whilst we plan how to transition out.
People wonder what will happen about their two year guarantee on a product bought in Europe, or vice versa for EU consumers buying UK goods.
Businesses that don't know the outcome of those 'in the pipeline' trade deals have increased uncertainty - which erodes investor confidence.

It starts on day one.

It started a year ago mate:

 

[Zuriblue]

We already have had Obama interfering in the Brexit vote, by stating the UK would go to the end of the queue in any future trade deals with the US.
Now his Vice President Joe Biden is on his way to the UK to enforce the message.
Cameron is calling in his big guns in an attempt to sway the vote.
This is a blatant interference in the Sovereign will of the electorate by a Foreign Power. Surely, the Brexit referendum has rattled the cages of the Washington hegemon and their Globalist ambitions. This Brexit vote is clearly the most important to the UK since the Magna Carta.
It is obvious that Europe and the UK are colonies of the US when they send their DOGCATCHERS to enforce the message.
Expect much use of the propaganda tactic of FUD, ( Fear,Doubt,Uncertainty) in the coming weeks.
No doubt the ‘dirty tricks’ department will be involved in vote manipulation by the usual means of ballot stuffing, postal and proxy vote misrepresentation.
Many Lazarus votes by the registered dead is another favourite tactic.
Some degree of protection must be enforced ,such as exit polls and count surveillance.
As previously stated, lessons are to be learned from the recent Scots referendum and the General Election, where some results were suspicious.
The UK population is sleepwalking into a totalitarian world of exploitation by a minority of vested interests. Brexit is the last hope of escaping this nightmare of corporate domination, which has given us austerity, neo-liberalism, endless wars and refugees.

 

[FanchesterCity]

Whatever happens after the result - we're still going to end up blaming things on the result.
If anything bad happens (either way) - half the population will believe it would have been better had we made the other decision. And if anything good happens, we'll claim that would have happened anyway - with the other decision.

It's one of life's ponderables - the other path we could have taken. We've been debating Europe for decades, and will continue to do so for decades to come!

 

[Blue Hefner]

Where Uber is making it virtually impossible for many taxi drivers to earn a living. We need economic solutions that work across society!

My point was, 5 years ago we wouldn't imagine a company like that could exist. I suggest we leave so we can adjust our needs as a country accordingly to the changing world swiftly

 

[TRUE BLUE NO1]

I agree Brian.

I've stated this numerous times before but it's been lost over the 900 pages, but there are very real reasons why a no-strings, tariff-free, trade deal CANNOT happen. Putting aside for one moment the fact that the French for one and probably other nations too would love to stick two fingers up at us, the EU cannot agree to what we would seek because (a) it would mean the UK had an unfair competitive advantage compared to EU businesses, (b) other nations would likely want the same and it could lead to the break up of the EU, (c) it's not in the interest of the smaller countries the vast majority of whom don't export much to us and yet whose agreement would be needed and (d) it could lead to foreign businesses leaving EU countries to move to the UK with our more flexible labour market, less social legislation / cost and yet have all the access to the EU.

So the EU cannot agree to what we would seek. At the same time, I cannot see Boris agreeing to free movement of labour or signing up to the Working Time Directive or supremecy of the European Courts either. It would be politically unacceptable to have won on a ticket of getting rid of those things and then signing us up to them again.

So we would very likely have years of impasse and ultimately no trade deal at all, in my view.

Thats my view as well mate.....EU cannot give us the same or better deal than its own EU members...thats just common sense and the uncertainly alone is going to effect investment and negatively impact our economy....Someone on here posted yesterday a report that stated 65"billion" in investment has already moved away from the UK at "just" the risk of UK voting leaving...if this is happening even before we vote out, anyone going to know for sure what will happen, if we actually do??....."out" think we can have our cake and eat it.....life doesnt work like it in my opinion!;)

 

[Tim of the Oak]

For me, the immigration issue - not the current numbers particularly, more the fact that it is completely out of control - is by far my biggest concern about Remain. I still think that the downsides of leaving would be far, far worse, but that's not to downplay immigration because it is a real challenge.

I wish Cameron instead of trying to claim that he's fixed it with his no-in-work-benefits-for-4-years fudge, would simply be open and honest and say yes, immigration is a real challenge and we're going to do everything we can to gain the support of other like minded nations - many of which are also very concerned - to try to get treaty change so some controls can be introduced.

No-one believes that the current concessions he's gained are going to fix the immigration issue and trying to pretend that they will, just makes him look shifty or incompetent, imo. And he should be more specific and proactive about the support he's going to put in place to help manage the current numbers coming in. If they are all contributing xbillion to the exchequer, then why not suggest that 100% of that money will channeled into schools, housing and the NHS for example?

The fact is we do need an influx of young talent to support us as the population gets older, so it's not a terrible thing if managed properly. And I do think some controls on numbers could be successfully negotiated. I know the EU said no last time, but public opinion across the EU is rapidly shifting.

Excellent post Chippy Boy.

Part of the problem is that uncontrolled immigration is adding to weaknesses in our infrastructure such as a shortage of clinical staff in Accident and Emrgency Departments

 

[FanchesterCity]

My point was, 5 years ago we wouldn't imagine a company like that could exist. I suggest we leave so we can adjust our needs as a country accordingly to the changing world swiftly

There's two (opposing) analogies for that:

The first is that we jump into our own lifeboat and take control of how we adapt to the changing weather conditions. Versatile and adaptable (or perhaps more easily blown around?)

The opposing analogy is that we try and share a lifeboat with others and cling on to a little more stability in an ever changing climate, accepting that we might be slower to react, but we're less likely to be blown off course too.

Take your pick!

 

[Tim of the Oak]

My point was, 5 years ago we wouldn't imagine a company like that could exist. I suggest we leave so we can adjust our needs as a country accordingly to the changing world swiftly

Good point Blue Hefner about Company flexibility. We can park the unsavoury aspects of this company!

 

[FanchesterCity]

Regarding investment leaving the UK - and in fairness to the 'outs' - the markets are already speculating in order to make money from uncertainty. It doesn't necessarily hold that it's due to a lack of confidence / concern about leaving - it's also about our wonderful financial experts profiteering - regardless of the outcome. It's quite hard to prove if it's lack of confidence in the UK, or just financial speculation.

Let's say you THINK we're going to leave, and you think it'll be a GOOD thing...

You can start selling your shares now (let's say at £1.00 each), and hope you can make it look like the market is panicking... so shares fall to £0.50). Then you buy them back at £0.50 later fully expecting them to rise again - possibly even higher than the original £1.00 (but anything above £0.50 sees you making a profit).

This can make it look like investors have no confidence, when in fact they have a lot of confidence! - probably why it's a 'game' best left to the experts (or licensed financial services gamblers depending on your opinion of them!)

 

[bluesoup]

The eu does not depend on our goods and services to survive and I'm sure they could fill our goods gap very adequately with stuff from France, Germany and Italy etc...

Once we are out there are no in roads unless we negotiate them using eu terms - not our terms as some seem to behold.

 

[TRUE BLUE NO1]

Regarding investment leaving the UK - and in fairness to the 'outs' - the markets are already speculating in order to make money from uncertainty. It doesn't necessarily hold that it's due to a lack of confidence / concern about leaving - it's also about our wonderful financial experts profiteering - regardless of the outcome. It's quite hard to prove if it's lack of confidence in the UK, or just financial speculation.

I agree mate....but either way, its clear that they think their money is "safer" away from the UK because of the uncertianty...

 

[blueonblue]

We do not HAVE TO except anything, least of all free movement to trade with anyone.

The scare stories of tariffs is a nonsense for all the reasons put over the last 676 pages, but lets play their silly game and accept there will be tariffs and look at what "Might" happen.
We run a deficit of roughly 2-1 with the EU, they load their goods with tariffs an we do the same to the point where our sales to Europe drop 50% and theirs do the same, that helps our economy by reducing our deficit and increasing the government income via the tariff income.
Lets also remember that the EU ( Or more to the point Germany) sells to us in the mainly high end goods market and not the necessities, so using the remainians logic they will pay a far higher rate of tariff than we will on what we sell.

Yes it will be offset by the lose of tax income on profits of those companies who trade in the EU, but then a government with a free hand can give tax breaks and incentives to mitigate that and encourage world trade, which as we know from the last 676 pages is growing while trade with the EU is in decline anyway.

 

[FanchesterCity]

The eu does not depend on our goods and services to survive and I'm sure they could fill our goods gap very adequately with stuff from France, Germany and Italy etc...

Once we are out there are no in roads unless we negotiate them using eu terms - not our terms as some seem to behold.

They'll miss our Holland's pies when they're gone!
We'll cope without their cheeses, wines, pizzas, luxury cars, oranges, holiday resorts, fashion, pornography and sports.

(said tongue in cheek before there's a horde of responses!)

 

[bluesoup]

They'll miss our Holland's pies when they're gone!
We'll cope without their cheeses, wines, pizzas, luxury cars, oranges, holiday resorts, fashion, pornography and sports.

(said tongue in cheek before there's a horde of responses!)

Damn this could mean the price of proseco could go up!

 

[FanchesterCity]

We do not HAVE TO except anything, least of all free movement to trade with anyone.

The scare stories of tariffs is a nonsense for all the reasons put over the last 676 pages, but lets play their silly game and accept there will be tariffs and look at what "Might" happen.
We run a deficit of roughly 2-1 with the EU, they load their goods with tariffs an we do the same to the point where our sales to Europe drop 50% and theirs do the same, that helps our economy by reducing our deficit and increasing the government income via the tariff income.
Lets also remember that the EU ( Or more to the point Germany) sells to us in the mainly high end goods market and not the necessities, so using the remainians logic they will pay a far higher rate of tariff than we will on what we sell.

Yes it will be offset by the lose of tax income on profits of those companies who trade in the EU, but then a government with a free hand can give tax breaks and incentives to mitigate that and encourage world trade, which as we know from the last 676 pages is growing while trade with the EU is in decline anyway.

It doesn't matter if they are selling one expensive item (a BMW) or a million components. The tax paid will be on the overall value. If we import more than we export, we lose out, full stop.
If I play brinksmanship and double the cost of my UK goods, and they double their cost in return, we lose out. In fact, we lose out even more through tariff brinksmanship because:

Original exports = £1.00 (for simplicity sake)
Original imports = £2.00

Tariff War exports = £2.00 (we've doubled our price to teach them a lesson!)
Tariff War imports = £4.00 (oh shit, they've doubled theirs!)

So instead of being £1.00 worse off, we're £2.00 worse off.


On top of that, the luxury items they sell are harder to find alternatives, but commodities are easily sourced elsewhere.
Do we want their BMW's more than they want our potatoes? hard to say, but they'll find potatoes elsewhere quicker than we'll find an alternative for BMW. Of course we could choose a Mercedes instead. No wait, an Audi!... No wait.
I wonder how Lexus and Jaguar would view it? they'd be rubbing their hands with glee - not for the discounts they'd offer, but how they'd suddenly have a larger share of the market!

 

[AlgarveBlu]

Regarding investment leaving the UK - and in fairness to the 'outs' - the markets are already speculating in order to make money from uncertainty. It doesn't necessarily hold that it's due to a lack of confidence / concern about leaving - it's also about our wonderful financial experts profiteering - regardless of the outcome. It's quite hard to prove if it's lack of confidence in the UK, or just financial speculation.

Let's say you THINK we're going to leave, and you think it'll be a GOOD thing...

You can start selling your shares now (let's say at £1.00 each), and hope you can make it look like the market is panicking... so shares fall to £0.50). Then you buy them back at £0.50 later fully expecting them to rise again - possibly even higher than the original £1.00 (but anything above £0.50 sees you making a profit).

This can make it look like investors have no confidence, when in fact they have a lot of confidence! - probably why it's a 'game' best left to the experts (or licensed financial services gamblers depending on your opinion of them!)

The stock market is another red herring that the media like to ply out with a great photo of the ftse 100 and a downward red arrow on any poll movement. The real area to look at and of far more importance will be the gilt and corporate bond markets but naturally the media don't bother with this as they know it won't resonate with Jo Public (naturally the FT does).

The fx market is the most sensitive instrument we have at our disposal on the GBP/USD trade as this is the most liquid trade in the fx markets - but a lot of this is driven by speculators so the moves you see are highly exaggerated and there have been many a time when a poll has come out in favour of leave that GBP comes off a bit and at the same time the FTSE is rising so the correlations at this stage are tenuous.

What makes me smile is that the BoE, ECB, FED, BOJ and the SNB central banks have in the last 6 years actively trying to supress the value of their national currencies by seeing who has the best money printing machine to give them a competitive edge in the export sector. Suddenly small moves in the direction the central bank was trying to go anyway are spun as a looming currency crisis. You couldn't make it up of you tried.

 

[Monkfish]

It's a supreme irony that the EU is far more left wing than the current UK government and INFINITELY more left wing than a UK government led by the right wing of the Tory party, post Brexit. And yet Brexit has significant support amongst the left wing voters in the UK. Quite bizarre.

Yep there are labour voters voting for a rabid right wing Tory administration in conjunction with Rupert and Nige, the loss of their jobs, homes, communities, the privatisation of the NHS et al . All because they don't like immigrants.

Hey, thats democracy in action (brought to you in conjunction with our foreign owned far right press)