EU referendum

[TonyM]

'Night and good luck!

 

[bluethrunthru]

Yeah but as you say you didn't go to bed after voting in 1975 and wake up in 2016 - Lisbon and Maastricht were not subject to referendums but were hotly debated and whilst there was no direct yes/no vote on their implementation in general elections afterwards to eject MP's and governments who backed the treaties. As that didn't happen I assume that there was not the extent of disquiet required to force a change in attitude?

We haven't just got here, the EU has evolved over that period and its done so with everyone's knowledge - its only in recent years with the rise of the xenophobic UKIP bandwagon that its go traction ad - in my view - most people who are pro-leave are being sold a pup propagated on lies that will be very bad for the UK.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Yes most people couldn't afford much time off work. Most of my family and friends couldn't. So it's no light matter. But I'd hope that there wasn't a huge impact. At least in the short term. People just don't know. And no one can trust the supposed experts as they are almost always either wrong or consumed by self interest. Otherwise we'd have utopia already.

If Britain votes remain then that's cool and to be honest I'd be shocked if they didn't. But I still hold out hope that they'll lead the way. I'm astonished at how high the out numbers are so there must be plenty of ordinary people willing to "take a chance on the long term best interest". Conjures images of spitfires over the channel.... fades out to God save the Queen. (Can't believe I wrote that)

How dare you !! No mention of the Dad's Army opening titles ha ha ha !!!

 

[halfcenturyup]

Many level headed Leavers won't approach the ballot box without asking themselves The question one last time.
Same for many Remains I'd guess.

Naah .... people aren't allowed to consider and reconsider then make their own minds up. It's black and white and supported by a list of impressive people so it must be right. Anyone who doesn't think so is stupid or old or a racist. Keep up!

 

[RichardDunneOwnGoal]

Quite a few of us who voted in 1975 thought we were voting for a Common Market, which seemed an eminently sensible idea. What we got (though we weren't told about it) was the European Union. The signs were there in hindsight but we didn't have the internet in those days so couldn't really know. And those few who warned that it was the first step in the creation of a European super-state were ridiculed. Now we're saying "We didn't vote for that at the time" which is the main reason why us older people are voting to leave. In a nutshell, we were conned. You could even say we were groomed, with all sorts of promises and treats.

The Lisbon and Maastricht treaties were the next steps and there was some disquiet but we didn't have the chance to vote on those. Voting t stay in on Thursday removes one of the last major barriers to the implementation of the Five Presidents' plan for fiscal, monetary and political union. That's in the public domain because of the internet though no one on the Leave campaign has brought it up when they really should have. There is simply no prospect that we will be able to opt out of that, which will involve joining the Euro and surrendering fiscal policy to the EU Finance Ministry. There is currently no guarantee, despite what Cameron will have you believe, that the NHS will be protected under TTIP. Does anyone really believe that Hunt even wants to protect it?

If that's fine with you, then vote Remain by all means. But do it with your eyes wide open and don't come back in 15 years time saying "But I didn't vote for that in 2016".

Well said mate.

Frankly, I think a lot of people need to stop deluding themselves that a vote to remain is the progressive vote.

It isn't. There are very clear warnings from the past as to what kind of future awaits this country should we remain in the EU, there are clear warning signs in the present which people are choosing to overlook, and I don't believe it's in the best interests of anyone but the status quo for us to remain.

A leave result will place our future entirely in our own hands, and it would represent a great opportunity for real tangible political change that would benefit the working people of this country. To wrestle back some of the power from the status quo.

I have full faith that we can secure a very bright long term future for the UK with an out vote, I trust our electorate.

We know what'll await us should we vote to stay and embolden the status quo. And we'll only have ourselves to blame when we sink further into that abyss over the coming years.

People need to look past the relentless negativity that has been targetted at our possible exit to try and frighten us to voting against our own interests, and reflect upon the great potential that an out vote would bring this county.

That should be the takeaway from this once in a lifetime referendum: we're a country with among the worst social mobility in the entire developed world, we have the ability to alter the course we're on, to redress the balance away from the status quo - or to back them, to embolden them and wave off that potential for tangible change and trust them with our futures.

It's a fairly straightforward choice as far as I'm concerned.

 

[halfcenturyup]

Back of the net

I thought Benn was a complete twat when I was younger but how this generation of nothing politicians needs someone like him. Passionate and principled. And because of that able to debate with authority.

 

[halfcenturyup]

But just repeating an advertising slogan and saying this and that will get better is bollocks - I'd like to think that in the event of a win on Thursday then of Friday morning they would know what they were doing - not sitting down and saying " Oh fuck we actually won what do we do now.... "

Oh, will they be the government on Friday?

 

[halfcenturyup]

Funny how the leave Tories bang on about the unelected commissioners but I don't hear them campaigning for the House of Lords to be scrapped.

That would be because it's irrelevant to the debate.

 

[halfcenturyup]

Why's it wrong? A Treasury Report estimates that there will be a 0.1% loss to GDP each quarter for 4 quarters, if we vote for out. Then the economy will return to growth (and bigger growth than whats happening elsewhere in the Eurozone).

To put it in perspective, in 2008 we lost 7% of GDP, due to a huge global crash. Also that 0.1% loss to GDP is a Treasury estimate based on the Government doing absolutely nothing to elevate this 12 month recession, and just sitting on their hands and doing nothing.

0.1% loss (per quarter over 12 months) to GDP isn't exactly anywhere near the apocolytic economic crash the remainers (especially EB2) were predicting further back in the thread, if we vote out.

More importantly, what does Pam's cat have to say about this?

 

[halfcenturyup]

The European Commission issued a statement saying that it was "disappointed" in the Swiss referendum on immigration restriction result but would wait to study how exactly the outcome of the referendum affects the relations between Switzerland and the European Union.[20] European Commission vice-president Viviane Reding stated that the result of the referendum could jeopardise Switzerland's access to the European single market, saying "The single market is not Swiss cheese."[21]

Thank you very Mutschli, Viviane Reding.

 

[halfcenturyup]

Exactly some people blame the EU for the results of Thatcherism and the tide of history. Auto industry has died or suffered chronically in most of the non EU west too and worse than much of the EU . But if people are deluded enough to blame everything bad on the EU there's not much you can say , that seems the crucial in Benoit difference.

In can generally acknowledge good and bad of Europe and that many factors are imvolved but there is an element of Brexit who have a religious blind faith and zeal as if the EU is Saran himself and responsible for all bad in the world

Then there is the vast majority that don't have that view.

 

[EalingBlue2]

Then there is the vast majority that don't have that view.

The vast majority of the country agree but not the bast majority of Brexit leadership and comms. That said I acknowledge if there are ww3 scare no hers that are 0.01% of Inners they are probably in the upper echelons

 

[halfcenturyup]

The info is out there if you care to look. Although admitted this is the weirdest campaign we've ever seen.

No to UKIP.

I am undecided. Would you care to explain to me in your own words how bad the impact on the economy will be if there is a Leave vote? What that would mean in practical terms? What were the assumptions used in the economic models used to come to those conclusions? How sensitive are the results to changes in each of the assumptions? What was the worst case and best case impact?

 

[EalingBlue2]

Well said mate.

Frankly, I think a lot of people need to stop deluding themselves that a vote to remain is the progressive vote.

It isn't. There are very clear warnings from the past as to what kind of future awaits this country should we remain in the EU, there are clear warning signs in the present which people are choosing to overlook, and I don't believe it's in the best interests of anyone but the status quo for us to remain.

A leave result will place our future entirely in our own hands, and it would represent a great opportunity for real tangible political change that would benefit the working people of this country. To wrestle back some of the power from the status quo.

I have full faith that we can secure a very bright long term future for the UK with an out vote, I trust our electorate.

We know what'll await us should we vote to stay and embolden the status quo. And we'll only have ourselves to blame when we sink further into that abyss over the coming years.

People need to look past the relentless negativity that has been targetted at our possible exit to try and frighten us to voting against our own interests, and reflect upon the great potential that an out vote would bring this county.

That should be the takeaway from this once in a lifetime referendum: we're a country with among the worst social mobility in the entire developed world, we have the ability to alter the course we're on, to redress the balance away from the status quo - or to back them, to embolden them and wave off that potential for tangible change and trust them with our futures.

It's a fairly straightforward choice as far as I'm concerned.

Do you honestly believe when we won't control our food supply, energy supply, defence, infrastructure , taxation , employment etc that we control our own future.

It is an idealistic notion based on a world of the 19th century

 

[halfcenturyup]

The vast majority of the country agree but not the bast majority of Brexit leadership and comms. That said I acknowledge if there are ww3 scare no hers that are 0.01% of Inners they are probably in the upper echelons

I don't care what the leaders of the Leave campaign say or think, if I was voting I would vote on principle not personality. On common sense and personal knowledge of Europe and the World not because someone tells me to.

 

[EalingBlue2]

You know here in Switzerland, the locals have such a Swiss identity that they only pay for Swiss food when possible, Swiss products when possible as well, even though they cost a lot more than the imported products. The reason being is they are paid a Swiss liveable wage so are not scraping for every penny. If the UK stopped importing cheap labor (that sleep 10 to a bedroom) then employers would have to pay a decent wage that would enable a person who wasn't prepared to share with 9 others a decent wage. They would then not be haggling over a few pennies at the local supermarket and would choose to back their own countries products.
At the moment in the Uk every penny counts, so they will buy from whoever, if they had enough income I think they would be more loyal.

Socialism - if that could happen then as I said I have a lot of sympathy to it.

I happen to believe Out will have the exact opposite effect in the UK and it will push to more consumption of cheaper products, less labour protection and a move away from The NHS etc as The UK splits, England becomes more London and Tory centric because Out is driven by Farage, Johnson, Gove etc and the left who have got in to bed with them are not going to get their socialist utopia as a result.

 

[BigJoe#1]

On the immigration question it was notable that whilst Leave goes big on "taking back control" they couldn't answer questions relating as to how they would limit immigration effectively from inside nor outside the EU nor did they have any view to offer on by how much taking back control would actually reduce the amount of immigration.

I know Dave has got himself in bother by stupidly putting a target figure on it ( against all advice to do so which I did post on here several weeks ago) but I'd expect them to approximate or give an idea of their expectations.

It just shows they have no actual plan and will be absolutely fucked when just saying take back control doesn't actually stop people coming here.

I thought he did answer the question on a solution for immigration, something along the lines of... We can identify the skills and number of people we NEED to support our businesses and infrastructure and by putting an Austrailian points based system in place we can regulate the flow of people into the country.

BTW when the remain side keep saying Australia has greater immigration than the UK, can they not see that is because they need a skilled immigration workforce to support them? Australia can control the flow in numbers by setting and revising target figures, something that we cannot do here in he UK for EU migrants. I'm sure there will be blips and imperfections but at least it would be a start. Unlike many moons ago I understand that if you have a criminal record (don't know if it's severity based) you will struggle to get in, again that's a control we need to have here in the UK, along with the right to deport people who commit serious crimes when they're here. In principle it's not that difficult really provided we aren't constrained by the EUs treaty legislation.

 

[BigJoe#1]

You've missed the point completely. Our labour laws make it much easier to get rid of workers whereas it's almost impossible in France & Germany. If they set up in France, they're stuck for good which is why the UK is a preferable option. Why do you think they chose the UK in the first place?

I'm sure many on here haven't heard of the German Workers Council.... and you think the TU are powerful?

 

[BigJoe#1]

But you can't remove the plans from the equation because thats what is needed from the winning side come Friday morning - if the victors haven't a detailed plan then God help us.

As to scaremongering - both In and Out say there will be a negative economic impact if we vote to Leave. How deep and for how long differs depending on the side making the point - truth be told nobody can predict until the outcome of the vote is known and world reacts but I suppose the question I would ask you is for how long are you and yours prepared to be worse off as a result of an Out vote and exactly how far you would be prepared to be worse off - a few quid a week, a few thou a year?

When are people going to understand that Brexit is not a political party and is in no position to develop strategies and policies. They can sahre views such as they did with immigration but they cannot day Previselycisely what will happen on D +1 should we got Brexit. That honour falls to Mr Camerom as it stands right now. However if we did vote out and Cameron did a ghe honourable thing, elements within the Tory party would then begin to formulate plans about how to leave, whoever is the most trusted and has the most coherent plans will probably take us forward. However, if the Tiry government is so fracture and a able to pull itself together then (and I personally think that's how it will be) there will be an election, at which time the political parties can offer you their plans to go forward and we can vote accordingly.

I just wish people would stop looking for something that just cannot physically exist at this moment in time.

 

[BigJoe#1]

On the market access thing - there will be a sense of fair play that EU ministers and governments will have to sell back home after negotiations. No way will we have unfettered access to EU markets with none of the "drawbacks " such as withdrawal from free movement or no contributions. It would be like being a member of a tennis club and telling the committee that its shit and you are leaving and no longer paying subs..... but you expect to be able to continue using their courts and the bar. Even if the committee went for it could you imagine what the members would say?

... and that "sell back home" concept needs to be remembered ahem ministers gather to ratify Camerons deal. Personally I can't see the Romanian, Polish, Estonian, Latvian, Lithuanian Solvakian and Slovenian ministers ALL agreeing to their Citizens benefits cut when the come to Britain can you? I bet they're already planning to ensure each proposal is vetoed by individual members states to share the blame... a bit like being black balled at the local golf club.... Just you wait and see. Mind you Dave's face when he has to come back and tell Parliament that his promised negotiations have been overturned and have failed will probably be a sight to behold.