9 | Gabriel Jesus - 2021/22 Performances

[Odd socks]

Think we will see plenty of Jesus before this season is over.
I don't want him to leave and if we have a new big superstar up top his battling will help open up plenty of chances.
This lad is tough as old boots.

 

[bluenova]

Very good summary I think. I like Jesus, works hard, runs a lot - not a lot of end product in the end though in terms of goals. Roughly 1 goal in every 3 games is not awful but we need someone with a better conversion rate/ more goals in them.

Having said that, you never hear anything bad about him off the pitch, clearly dedicated on the pitch - does not moan as you say and I think that is a credit to him.

I hope the move to Barcelona works out for him and wish him all the best wherever he will end up.

His record with City is a goal every 154 minutes, which is almost identical to Salah when you strip out penalties.

 

[Stonesisagreatdancer]

Good player, works hard, doesn't moan and has scored some big goals for us (unlike Sterling). I actually expect him to get at least one Vs Madrid in the semi. I do think however If we get Haaland he defo should leave and Arsenal is actually a good club for him. (Prefer he went abroad though)

 

[WallyA]

I agree that Jesus' stats are good for City over his time here, but I think you need to put more of these stats in context.

In his time at City, Jesus has an xG of 72.4, but scored only 53 (Scores about 73% of goals expected). So he's fairly consistently underperformed his xG over his time here. 73% is pretty bad.

Comparatively, Sterling, who many seem to hate for his finishing, has an xG of 102.6 and scored 92 of them (Scores about 90% of goals expected).

Even moreso, I did other calculations of players time in the league for us on their percentages:

KdB: 131% (KdB is a ridiculous finisher if it wasn't obvious)
Mahrez: 122% (This includes his time at Leicester and definitely aided by penalties, but still really good)
Foden: 115% (imo our 2nd best finisher because Mahrez has too many penalties).

I think we need players getting closer to these numbers. Sterling is only accepted into the team because his pace gets him in so many chances, that's why the 90% is even acceptable.

Now as pointed out, Jesus' advantage is that he is fairly decent at creating goal, I'd say even better at Sterling, Sterling is better at using pace to create, whereas Jesus is more varied. But I don't know if we need that going forward, we have ALOT of players who can create, but not enough who are great goal scorers. This is why I think Jesus can do wonderfully at another club who needs a more varied player like him, but at City, we NEED a goal scorer right now.

 

[bluenova]

I agree that Jesus' stats are good for City over his time here, but I think you need to put more of these stats in context.

In his time at City, Jesus has an xG of 72.4, but scored only 53 (Scores about 73% of goals expected). So he's fairly consistently underperformed his xG over his time here. 73% is pretty bad.

Comparatively, Sterling, who many seem to hate for his finishing, has an xG of 102.6 and scored 92 of them (Scores about 90% of goals expected).

Even moreso, I did other calculations of players time in the league for us on their percentages:

KdB: 131% (KdB is a ridiculous finisher if it wasn't obvious)
Mahrez: 122% (This includes his time at Leicester and definitely aided by penalties, but still really good)
Foden: 115% (imo our 2nd best finisher because Mahrez has too many penalties).

I think we need players getting closer to these numbers. Sterling is only accepted into the team because his pace gets him in so many chances, that's why the 90% is even acceptable.

Now as pointed out, Jesus' advantage is that he is fairly decent at creating goal, I'd say even better at Sterling, Sterling is better at using pace to create, whereas Jesus is more varied. But I don't know if we need that going forward, we have ALOT of players who can create, but not enough who are great goal scorers. This is why I think Jesus can do wonderfully at another club who needs a more varied player like him, but at City, we NEED a goal scorer right now.

I nearly posted these as Jesus xG stats do stand out. Curiously I read an article by someone from one of the big stats sites a while back arguing that underperforming your xG can be a sign of a good player, so long as the goals are coming - and Jesus has the best goals ratio of all our players.

The argument was that there are two sides to scoring a goal, the finishing, and getting in the right place to take the shot in the first place. Obviously you can be boosted by playing in a better team, but compared to other City players Jesus must be doing something right if his finishing isn't as good.

Not sure about the penalties as they'd have a really high xG anyway (around 0.76) and both Kev and Riyad have penalty records close to that figure, so I think taking them out actually improves both their figures - Mahrez up to 128% and Kev to 135%.

 

[WallyA]

I nearly posted these as Jesus xG stats do stand out. Curiously I read an article by someone from one of the big stats sites a while back arguing that underperforming your xG can be a sign of a good player, so long as the goals are coming - and Jesus has the best goals ratio of all our players.

The argument was that there are two sides to scoring a goal, the finishing, and getting in the right place to take the shot in the first place. Obviously you can be boosted by playing in a better team, but compared to other City players Jesus must be doing something right if his finishing isn't as good.

Not sure about the penalties as they'd have a really high xG anyway (around 0.76) and both Kev and Riyad have penalty records close to that figure, so I think taking them out actually improves both their figures - Mahrez up to 128% and Kev to 135%.

I don't know what article your referring to but that would require alot more clarification.

Of course, if your scoring a high volume of goals, then if you under perform your xG then who cares, your scoring loads anyways.

But up to a certain point, you can't be under performing this metric all the time. The best strikers like Lewandowski who have huge volume goals, who does underperform his xG, is still at around 99%.

Mbappe, Haaland, Benzema all over 100% AND have high volume to combine with it.

Jesus is clearly able to get in good situations, his xG/90 is the best in the entire squad since his time here (0.73), this number rivals some of the best strikers in europe, the lad is very good at getting in goal situations (perhaps aided by how we play), but he has struggled to convert them to then match the best strikers in europe.

If he reached Sterling levels of conversion (or even better) we would probably be having an entire other conversation about him and talks about him would be about how we might have one of the best strikers on the planet.

 

[avoidconfusion]

You say not a lot of end product, but he's third this season for goals and assists per 90 minutes behind mahrez and kdb. Better output than Gundogan, sterling and foden who all sit beneath him in that order, the last attacker not named in Grealish is some way back, sitting behind fernandinho.

He's the third best contributor to the side and gives us unrivalled workrate off the ball.which is vital in the big games. We have to be criticising the entire attack bar mahrez and kdb if we are suggesting jesus isn't offering enough.

He's not a striker though is he

 

[JDV]

I'd prefer to keep Jesus and lose Sterling.

 

[FantasyIreland]

I'd prefer to keep Jesus and lose Sterling.

Hmmm....that will confuse those with an agenda.

I agree though,however,i suspect we can improve if we make both available.

 

[JDV]

Hmmm....that will confuse those with an agenda.

I agree though,however,i suspect we can improve if we make both available.

Yeah it might, but can't please everyone.

Both available for selection or to be sold?