A Stat Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero (Update pg 10)

[NorCalBlue]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

but don't worry the patronising over the pond crew will descend on you armed with a pack of stats claiming you are blind.

You're starting to sound like a climate change sceptic; "I don't care that the long term analysis suggests a global warming trend, it's bloody cold out today".

Oh and the sycophantic scouse monkey can rest assured I won't stop annoying him.

I don't doubt this for a minute, stats or no stats.

 

[NorCalBlue]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

I completely agree that we don't play to Dzeko's strengths, and yet the stats still show he's about as effective for the team as Aguero and Tevez.

They don't though, they just show that he scores a good number of goals for the minutes he plays. That's it, they don't show anything else. They don't show how the team has done. How many points have we won with the different strikers or combinations would be the most important stat, not how many goals an individual scores.

I know it's a bit long, but the OP does contain this information. And it shows that Dzeko is more effective for the team than he is for himself, and that Dzeko/Tevez is the most effective combination for the team (the combination stuff is near the bottom, and although the numbers have changed a little after today's result, the conclusions still stand).

Edit: The OP only shows team goals for and against when each pairing is on the field, but since you mention points won, I went back and calculated that too (based on the goals for and goals against in each match, while they were on the field together);

Tevez/Dzeko 2.1 pts/game, Aguero/Dzeko 1.8 pts/game, Tevez/Aguero 1.7 pts/game

Make of that what you will.

Incidentally (and without trying to be patronising), there's an excellent book called "You Are Not So Smart" by David McRaney that I recommend for anyone who thinks that their gut reaction is always right.

 

[EricBrooksGhost]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

but don't worry the patronising over the pond crew will descend on you armed with a pack of stats claiming you are blind.

You're starting to sound like a climate change sceptic; "I don't care that the long term analysis suggests a global warming trend, it's bloody cold out today".

Oh and the sycophantic scouse monkey can rest assured I won't stop annoying him.

I don't doubt this for a minute, stats or no stats.

I see we have progressed to shit analogies yet keeping the tone; bravo.

 

[Corky]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

We are more effective when playing our 11 best players.

Our best performances this season for me were Newcastle home and away, Chelsea at home and United away.

 

[NorCalBlue]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

We are more effective when playing our 11 best players.

Our best performances this season for me were Newcastle home and away, Chelsea at home and United away.

Those were certainly all good performances, but they were mostly played with different striker combinations;
Newcastle away: Tev/Ag (start-80 min), Tev/Ag/Dz (72-80 min), Ag/Dz at (80 min -end)
Chelsea home: Ag (start-54 min), Tev/Ag (54 min - end)
Newcastle home: Tev/Dz (start-70 min), Tev/Ag/Dz (70 min - end)
ManU away: Tev (start - 70 min), Tev/Ag (70-92 min), Ag (92 min - end)

This is a tiny sample, and the team goals for/against are therefore statistically insignificant (the high score at home against Newcastle badly skews the data), but the key goals in 3 out of the 4 games listed were scored when Tevez and Aguero were on the field together;

Newcastle away: the first 2 goals of the 3-1 win
Chelsea home: both goals in the 2-0 win
United away: the winner

If you're one of the many people who still can't wrap their heads around the stats I've presented, perhaps it's because of the (statistically) small number of memorable moments when Tevez and Aguero have successfully combined to make the difference in a game in which we were also playing pleasing football?

 

[MCFC1993]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

If only it was just the goals per min/game that mattered.

Fact is that its not.

Fair play to you for putting the stats together but as Prestwich Blue alluded to early on in this thread, Tevez and Aguero graft their bollocks and score and contribute to goals/team performance. Dzeko just gives you the goals and even they are usually in batches, before he goes on a barren spell.

I'm also not buying for a second that our team thinks "Shit, Dzeko's up front today, we better graft extra hard".

 

[mancity1]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

All three are important and are proven scorers.

Of course its difficult to start all three unless Tevez was to play a deeper role which he could and be effective but personally I would like all three to start in blue next year as unlikely that appears.

Stability is crucial and we have already let one go which Man Utd proved this year once again its crucial you don't change too many too quickly.

 

[NorCalBlue]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

If only it was just the goals per min/game that mattered.

Fact is that its not.

Fair play to you for putting the stats together but as Prestwich Blue alluded to early on in this thread, Tevez and Aguero graft their bollocks and score and contribute to goals/team performance. Dzeko just gives you the goals and even they are usually in batches, before he goes on a barren spell.

I'm also not buying for a second that our team thinks "Shit, Dzeko's up front today, we better graft extra hard".

What I show in the OP is that Dzeko actually has the lowest goals per min/game, when he starts, so that isn't the main thrust at all. I can't say I blame anyone for not carefully reading the entire OP, but for those who are critical of Dzeko because they think the most important thing is a player's contribution to the team performance (in terms of team goals), the truth is not at all what they think. In fact Dzeko comes out much better in terms of team goals than he does in terms of goals he scores himself.

So the numbers show (over the entire 45 game season - not cherry picked to prove any preconception) that Dzeko's presence causes the rest of the team to score more goals than either Aguero or Tevez. That looks like a greater contribution to the team performance in my book, which is exactly the opposite of the Bluemoon conventional wisdom.

You can make your own guesses about how this has happened, but you can't argue that it isn't true, because it is (btw, the "lazy Dzeko makes everyone else work harder" theory was offered facetiously as the only way out for those who refuse to acknowledge anything good about Dzeko).

 

[AntiUnited]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

If only it was just the goals per min/game that mattered.

Fact is that its not.

Fair play to you for putting the stats together but as Prestwich Blue alluded to early on in this thread, Tevez and Aguero graft their bollocks and score and contribute to goals/team performance. Dzeko just gives you the goals and even they are usually in batches, before he goes on a barren spell.

I'm also not buying for a second that our team thinks "Shit, Dzeko's up front today, we better graft extra hard".

What I show in the OP is that Dzeko actually has the lowest goals per min/game, when he starts, so that isn't the main thrust at all. I can't say I blame anyone for not carefully reading the entire OP, but for those who are critical of Dzeko because they think the most important thing is a player's contribution to the team performance (in terms of team goals), the truth is not at all what they think. In fact Dzeko comes out much better in terms of team goals than he does in terms of goals he scores himself.

So the numbers show (over the entire 45 game season - not cherry picked to prove any preconception) that Dzeko's presence causes the rest of the team to score more goals than either Aguero or Tevez. That looks like a greater contribution to the team performance in my book, which is exactly the opposite of the Bluemoon conventional wisdom.

You can make your own guesses about how this has happened, but you can't argue that it isn't true, because it is (btw, the "lazy Dzeko makes everyone else work harder" theory was offered facetiously as the only way out for those who refuse to acknowledge anything good about Dzeko).

They dont give a shit. running around is more important then putting the ball in the back of the net.

 

[pudge]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

Why not just bump the main Dzeko thread and post this in there?

I mean, you're not exactly being subtle.