So our overcrowded island is getting more overcrowded.
Jonathan Portes of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research points out that much of the UK is not crowded . All population statistics are by definition slightly out of date and approximate, but while England has roughly 410 people a sq km – the second highest in the EU – Wales has only 150, Northern Ireland 135 and Scotland 70. Even heaving, stressful London is much less full of people than is widely supposed. “London is the lowest-density mega-city on the planet,” states Professor of Demography Danny Dorling. “The densest part of London is four times less dense than Barcelona, a normal, well-planned European city that Britons all want to visit.”
Dorling argues that the UK’s “overpopulation problem” is really the product of poor land use and social division, of corporate wage squeezes and cuts in state provision. “We’ve managed to organise ourselves so that much of our daily lives is crowded. We have the smallest homes in Europe. Meanwhile, there’s lots of wasted space.” Inner London is increasingly taken up by the huge, little-occupied homes of the super-rich and empty investors’ properties – a less tatty, but in some ways more dysfunctional and depressing, form of urban emptiness than the rundown streets of the 70s and 80s. At least those had the potential to become spaces for community groups, poor immigrants or bohemians.
In the parts of London and other British cities that remain heavily populated, says Dorling, “our fear of each other makes it much harder to live together. Density is much harder when a society is very unequal. Look at Japan: it can be very dense because it’s very equal”. Yet, thanks to the media and popular culture, many Britons are more familiar with the space-hungry suburbs of the US and Australia than the reality of life in modest flats in Japan or Barcelona. Our aspirations often remain suburban. Meanwhile, inadequate infrastructure further amplifies our overpopulation anxieties. As Dorling says, “We have mainline railway stations with pavements outside them that are are only two metres wide.”
He thinks the population panic will pass. “I find it hard to believe that we’ll have this gloomy discourse on population in 20 years’ time.” Portes agrees: “You can build more schools and hospitals. Population redistribution is hard, but not impossible. You obviously can’t plonk people in the middle of nowhere, but we built new towns in the 50s. Why not build more within commuting distance of, say, Manchester?”
Damian Green, with his recent experience as an immigration minister, is less sanguine. In Whitehall, “most of the discussions were about bringing the [immigration] numbers down. But I’d rather be in a country people wanted to come to than leave. We are a more self-confident country now than in the 70s. If we get relatively bigger [than our rivals], it will increase that.” Does he think the UK has an optimum, or maximum, population? “No. If you try to guess a number, that becomes a target.”
Sooner or later, Dorling points out, the current rise will go into reverse. The British economy will enter a recession and cease to be so attractive to immigrants. The Mediterranean economies will recover. Even the civil wars in the Middle East and Africa, and the resulting refugee crisis, will end. At this point, the size of the British population will depend much more on our fertility rate, which is around 1.9 children a family – one of the highest in Europe, but lower than the 2.1 needed to keep a population stable. Our population is in serious decline due to falling birth rates and we have an a aging population. Tell me then, who is going to pay for your pension?