Alexandole Boris de Pfeffel Johnson

[west didsblue]

There is no chance Johnson will be back. Too divisive within the Parliamentary party.
think it’s between Sunac and Mor daunt and Modaunt will be next PM.

If it goes to the members it will go to the one who isn't Sunak.

Most likely scenario is that Sunak will be the only one with over 100 MP backers and it will be a coronation rather than an election.

The quickest way to an early election would be the return of Johnson, either due to some MPs resigning the whip and voting with the opposition in a VONC or one of the enquiries will force him out or a new scandal will finish him off (because as sure as night follows day there will be one).

 

[Saddleworth2]

If it goes to the members it will go to the one who isn't Sunak.

Most likely scenario is that Sunak will be the only one with over 100 MP backers and it will be a coronation rather than an election.

The quickest way to an early election would be the return of Johnson, either due to some MPs resigning the whip and voting with the opposition in a VONC or one of the enquiries will force him out or a new scandal will finish him off (because as sure as night follows day there will be one).

Agree. It won’t be Johnson though.

 

[metalblue]

In an act of ultimate shithousery Johnson will not declare he is in the game until he gets the 100 supporters needed - its all about him and his ego - he cannot lose so if he doesn't get the 100 but doesn't declare as a runner then he hasn't lost has he? That's how his fickle me me me mind works

I don’t think anyone will declare they will run until they have the 100 votes necessary.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

If it goes to the members it will go to the one who isn't Sunak.

Most likely scenario is that Sunak will be the only one with over 100 MP backers and it will be a coronation rather than an election.

The quickest way to an early election would be the return of Johnson, either due to some MPs resigning the whip and voting with the opposition in a VONC or one of the enquiries will force him out or a new scandal will finish him off (because as sure as night follows day there will be one).

Can see a back door for bj if he comes a distant second but then the membership get to put him first :-(

 

[metalblue]

They're going to select Boris from what iv heard.

I think the gamble is win a handful of seats back, against splitting the country even further.

They really are shysters this lot.

What if they don’t select him….are they still shysters?

 

[threespires]

Supercity
you are correct but the investigation timeline is at odds with the quicky Tory election

I guess they will have a good idea already whether Bozo will be found guilty. The constitution of the investigative committee favours the Tories - see the detail via the link below.

Whichever way you view Bozo and the Tories this is a massive practical joke at the expense of many folk who simply despair at the daily descent into farce.

I’ve got Dutch relations and they cannot believe what is going on. They aren’t gloating they just cannot understand how a country with such a deep tradition of sensible democracy and trade can fuck itself over.

Privileges Committee investigation into Boris Johnson | Institute for Government

How the investigation into Boris Johnson worked and what it found.

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk

I think the answer to your Dutch family member's question can be summed up as 'dark money and dodgy data' as the saying goes.

 

[The blue phantom]

Just listened to Ben Wallace who I actually thought was going to be quiet neutral. He's certainly behind Boris.

 

[west didsblue]

Can see a back door for bj if he comes a distant second but then the membership get to put him first :-(

Exactly.

I would guess that 75% of party members would vote for him given a chance, which is why the 1922 committee have done their best to tailor the rules to minimise the chance.

However I understand that a lot of the local party organisations are imploring their MPs to support Johnson against the MPs' own better judgment. That could potentially tip Johnson over the 100 MP threshold which would guarantee him a win in the vote if there is only one other candidate over 100.

 

[mackenzie]

Exactly.

I would guess that 75% of party members would vote for him given a chance, which is why the 1922 committee have done their best to tailor the rules to minimise the chance.

However I understand that a lot of the local party organisations are imploring their MPs to support Johnson against the MPs' own better judgment. That could potentially tip Johnson over the 100 MP threshold which would guarantee him a win in the vote if there is only one other candidate over 100.

Whoever gets the job I can only see further infighting in the Tory party. It's going to carry on regardless.
Certainly the best thing for the country is to call a GE, but they won't do that.

 

[metalblue]

There is no chance Johnson will be back. Too divisive within the Parliamentary party.
think it’s between Sunac and Mor daunt and Modaunt will be next PM.

If Johnson declares he will run then I don’t see anyone beating him. Sunak commands the centre ground one nation tories, with few exceptions Johnson commands the rest (Brexiteers, Red and blue walls). Once it goes to the membership it will be Johnson by a country mile. My guess is if Johnson does declare he will stand uncontested.

Forming a competent cabinet will be a challenge and he has the investigation hanging over him. The best bet would be for him to not run, then come back after tories get defeated next election as the great saviour but these are nothing if not crazy times.