By-Elections

[Alan Harper's Tash]

This could, could be the turning point even on places like Twitter.

People with little interest in politics, but felt emboldened by the Brexit result won’t be feeling so cocky about Johnson this morning.

Therefore, their “banter” won’t be quite so strong and they’ll start disappearing under their rocks again.

They voted for a change in the status quo in 2016, were warned it wouldn’t be the positive change they thought and now they are seeing what they have done.

 

[Dave Ewing's Back 'eader]

Nope, you've lost me.

There was a 30% swing to the LDs in Honiton hence the jubilation. The win in Wakefield, although by a huge 12% swing, was not on the same scale as Honiton and was largely expected.

From the celebrations in Honiton the LibDems seemed to be back in the David Steele 'wonderland' of 'preparing for government'! - just as long as you dismiss the Wakefield result! The LibDems are very similar to many political parties across the globe - there a good bet if yer want to kick someone in the knackers at a by-election but when it comes down to electing a national government they've a long way to go to get back to the days of George V!

 

[bluejon]

This could, could be the turning point even on places like Twitter.

People with little interest in politics, but felt emboldened by the Brexit result won’t be feeling so cocky about Johnson this morning.

Therefore, their “banter” won’t be quite so strong and they’ll start disappearing under their rocks again.

They voted for a change in the status quo in 2016, were warned it wouldn’t be the positive change they thought and now they are seeing what they have done.

We'll see. Similar to other cults, it's never their fault. If the remainiacs didn't exist then everything with brexit would have been incredible.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

We'll see. Similar to other cults, it's never their fault. If the remainiacs didn't exist then everything with brexit would have been incredible.

I did have dipper fans in mind whilst writing that post.

The season they won the league, my BIL sent loads of banter messages to me.

I‘d forgotten he was a dipper. This wasn’t me going senile, it was because he’s from Hampshire and has never visited the north.

 

[Gabriel]

It's a game of chess. They will not care that they are there because of Boris. Their loyalty is simply because there's no benefit in speaking against him at the moment. It will force them to the backbenches in a reshuffle. They need to wait until the majority show discontent and then make their move. Someone will be brave/stupid and go first and then someone else will quietly rally support and challenge them and then all the games and infighting will begin. But the electorate need to remember that anyone currently aligned with Boris is just as bad as he is. I would never vote for the Tories anyway, but I hope voters out there recognise that they're all as bad as each other and only those brave enough to resign are worthy of leading the party/country.

That might work in any ‘normal’ Conservative Government, one which represents both wings and the centre of the party, but this is an entirely different beast. The Cabinet is almost exclusively from the right wing of the party, and, currently, the support Johnson enjoys comes from his Government appointees and those backbenchers intent on pursuing their right-wing ideology. They have the numbers and know that the time in which they can implement their programme is running out; it’s unlikely to be in this position again, maybe ever. It is for that reason that I cannot foresee any great change coming from within. I’m not excusing those in the Party that want rid, just pointing out that for years they kept the ‘right’ on the margins but now find it is they who are kept on the margins by the ‘right’.

Ultimately, and I know this may sound painful, it was the English electorate that wanted this, and it will be the English electorate that decides when this ends, a choice which may not come until January 2025.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Its odd but the usual copy and paste tweets from Tories ( well Tory Central Office and retweeted by MP's ) in full throated support of Johnson are absent today - must be a lot of dodgy internet connections today ?

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

The polls are open in Wakefield and in Tiverton and Honiton and the results should be heard in the early hours of tomorrow.

Both by-elections result from individual wrongs, but I doubt those will figure highly in voters’ minds.

In Wakefield, the Conservatives are defending a 3,358 majority after a 6.1 swing in 2019. The polls suggest Labour will win the seat.

In Tiverton and Honiton, the Conservatives are defending a whopping 24,239 majority after the election in 2019. The polls suggest it is tight between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.

The Conservatives are already resigned to losing the former, but losing the latter would be a greater concern and risk deepening the division between ‘Red Wall’ and ‘Shire’ MPs.

Will it be a case getting all of the bad news over on the one day, or will the Conservatives hold on in Devon and give themselves a glimmer of hope?

Easy to forget that this time yesterday we were looking at a 24k majority seat and wondering how far the tories would fall.

The answer was a very clear cut disaster for them in Devon. Wakefield result is on par for a solid Labour come back, it only looks less resounding because of the scale of the tory defeat in their southern heartlands. All the chatter on tory benches will be about the devon result - the implications are that they need to appeal to the traditional base more - and that is often att odds with what appeals to the voters in the red wall.

Johnson increasingly a liability to both groups of voters but in considering a new leader and direction how can they appeal to both Northern working class voters who backed BJ/Brexit and rich southern rural types who expect the tories to look after them by spending / taxing less and ruining the economy well.

 

[Summerbuzz]

There's been a sense for a while that the Tories have clicked that they have backed themselves into a corner, and any of their MP's with half a brain is now looking several years ahead.

The thing about cultism is that the world and popular view changes. There's so many holes in what the hitherto annoying supporters are saying. The one who persist are starting to look like sad people who let themselves dream. Broken records, stopped clocks.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

Easy to forget that this time yesterday we were looking at a 24k majority seat and wondering how far the tories would fall.

The answer was a very clear cut disaster for them in Devon. Wakefield result is on par for a solid Labour come back, it only looks less resounding because of the scale of the tory defeat in their southern heartlands. All the chatter on tory benches will be about the devon result - the implications are that they need to appeal to the traditional base more - and that is often att odds with what appeals to the voters in the red wall.

Johnson increasingly a liability to both groups of voters but in considering a new leader and direction how can they appeal to both Northern working class voters who backed BJ/Brexit and rich southern rural types who expect the tories to look after them by spending / taxing less and ruining the economy well.

 

[The perfect fumble]

This could, could be the turning point even on places like Twitter.

People with little interest in politics, but felt emboldened by the Brexit result won’t be feeling so cocky about Johnson this morning.

Therefore, their “banter” won’t be quite so strong and they’ll start disappearing under their rocks again.

They voted for a change in the status quo in 2016, were warned it wouldn’t be the positive change they thought and now they are seeing what they have done.

Some might see it, but for many the 2016 vote was visceral, it's immune to logic.