Of course it was a guess,it couldn't be a fact before the event.He says it’s an “educated guess” rather than a fact though. One is an opinion as part of the larger picture which turned out to be incorrect.
I think there is a difference but people seem to want an admission or apology and I don’t know why. Has Stephan said his opinions are always correct somewhere?
I pointed out he expressed the opinion that it was highly unlikely we would have any significant success and he replied that was not true.
The evidence is there that he indeed expressed that opinion.