City v Southampton pre match thread.

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Healdplace said:
I do not get the weakened team argument. Both Southampton and Madrid are equally important in the larger scheme of things. You cannot gamble all on getting a result at their fortress (no goals conceded and 18 scored in the last 5 CL games there!)

Yes, we might do it and hope we do. Undeniably Pelle will focus on that as it is the only match that matters to him personally as a CL final manager = basically pick of teams and salary for his next job. Whereas he gains nothing from City being in the CL next season and - think about it - potentially eliminates a big front runner of City under Pep for any CL team he manages next.

I am not suggesting he will deliberately undermine our chances. He is a decent professional man. But he will balance things in a direction a manager still here next season might not because RM Wednesday is basically his do or die fixture in the next month.

City - though - as a club have to look in a more balanced way. We cannot decide on the basis of United's result as our team sheet will need to be in when that match has not even ended. Nor should we be going gung ho saying we can afford to lose and still get above Arsenal by beating them and also Swansea because of our superior goal difference.

Yes, it is better - but not on the same scale as over United where it genuinely is worth an extra point. Arsenal play Norwich and end with Villa at home in their other two games. Even if they need to make up 8 or 9 goals on us via those two they are about the two fixtures anyone would pick to credibly have a chance of doing so.

Risking a loss Sunday would be a huge gamble on our CL future.

We should not be doing it. Rest only those we have little option but to rest and where we have good options to replace. Preferably players who WILL be here next season and know how vital a win at Southampton could be for them personally to avoid Thursday nights. Not the players for whom it is just another game to get through. That really ought to be a major part of team selection this Sunday along with these points being spelled out as to why we need to go for it.

Beat Southampton and we can afford a draw with Arsenal and quite probably get third. Draw and we are still in control over United (just care of our goal difference) even if they beat Leicester.

Lose and we may well be relying on help elsewhere and would all but certainly have to beat Arsenal - potentially after extra time and penalties and a flight from Madrid in the middle of the night.

We simply have to look ahead like this and not just gamble all for glory on Wednesday night.

Southampton is a game we could badly do with winning but in any case is very possibly one we simply cannot afford to lose.

We have to approach it that way.

Things go well - we win, Arsenal and United drop points - and we might even have the luxury of resting a few against Arsenal.

For Sunday for Pelle's future possibly he might think we do have to play a weakened team but for the good of the club we simply must not.
Click to expand...
We have to rotate the squad full stop. Not sure exactly how we should approach this as it raises difficult choices for the manager. If we had lost
3-0 on Tuesday it would be obvious that the Southampton game would become more important. But we are still very much in this tie and although we may come up short we must give it our best shot. We do have some reasonable players who can be drafted in to give others a rest. It is not ideal as I have said before but we have to try to get a result in both games. Anyway given our generally poor league form this season it is far from certain that fielding our strongest possible 11 would ensure 3 points. Just hope that Leicester smash the rags and that will make live a lot easier.
 
Still think our biggest problem is that some players are off this Summer and know it. Playing them in matches that we need results from to get top 4 is inevitably going to risk them not being 100% in the fight for something that they personally know they will not benefit from next season.

So we need players in these last three games that will decide if we get top 4 who will be here next season and so will have a deeply personal motivation to win Sunday.

You only had to see Hart after the RM game and how he was already fired up for Sunday and knew how vital it was to realise that playing him (and others like him) will give us that competitive edge we are going to need.

So the idea of resting him for Willy (as someone suggested earlier) needs to pause and remember that Willy likely will be gone and Joe will not. And see who really knows the importance of a result Sunday in terms of securing CL next season.

That is the edge - not that we might indeed have some reasonable squad players.
 
Nearly all of the changes that will be made would still have been made even if we weren't playing RM on Wednesday. It just makes sense to rotate the fullbacks, not risk Kompany's fitness by a second game in a short period, rest one of the Ferns by playing Delph, and obviously replace Silva. That's 5 changes that would be made irrespective of future fixtures. If Yaya, and/or Nasri are fit there might also be a case for playing them, irrespective of the RM match.

The only questionable selection issues that I see are whether to include Aguero and De Bruyne. If they don't start then it might suggest the manager is prioritising the CL. It looked as if Aguero was knackered on Tuesday. But whenever Aguero cant get into a game he looks knackered. The next game he can be red hot again.

If Aguero genuinely is suffering from fatigue then I wouldn't start him at Southampton. If he's fit enough to play then I would give him 45-60 mins or at least have him on the bench. Probably the same for De Bruyne.
 
According to Ronald Koeman, City is the only team in the PL that he hasn't defeated so far since he is a Southampton-manager. It's the best time to play us I think. But we can definitely make a huge statement fro once this season by taking all 3 points home, no matter the way we achieve this. Park the buss for all I care.

With Kompany showing his old self again vs Real, I'd say rest him (again). Maybe Aguero needs a rest to, but he often is useless when coming on. If he will get a rest, play Bony and Iheanacho together from the start. Give Sterling a starting place. Leave KdB on as he thrives playing a lot of games. And we need his directness and creativity. Delph next to one of the Ferns (I'd go with Fernandinho this time). Rotate both Sagna and Clichy, and the rest will pick themselves ... nothing left really.
It's all about the 3 points now.
 
Healdplace said:
I do not get the weakened team argument. Both Southampton and Madrid are equally important in the larger scheme of things. You cannot gamble all on getting a result at their fortress (no goals conceded and 18 scored in the last 5 CL games there!)

Yes, we might do it and hope we do. Undeniably Pelle will focus on that as it is the only match that matters to him personally as a CL final manager = basically pick of teams and salary for his next job. Whereas he gains nothing from City being in the CL next season and - think about it - potentially eliminates a big front runner of City under Pep for any CL team he manages next.

I am not suggesting he will deliberately undermine our chances. He is a decent professional man. But he will balance things in a direction a manager still here next season might not because RM Wednesday is basically his do or die fixture in the next month.

City - though - as a club have to look in a more balanced way. We cannot decide on the basis of United's result as our team sheet will need to be in when that match has not even ended. Nor should we be going gung ho saying we can afford to lose and still get above Arsenal by beating them and also Swansea because of our superior goal difference.

Yes, it is better - but not on the same scale as over United where it genuinely is worth an extra point. Arsenal play Norwich and end with Villa at home in their other two games. Even if they need to make up 8 or 9 goals on us via those two they are about the two fixtures anyone would pick to credibly have a chance of doing so.

Risking a loss Sunday would be a huge gamble on our CL future.

We should not be doing it. Rest only those we have little option but to rest and where we have good options to replace. Preferably players who WILL be here next season and know how vital a win at Southampton could be for them personally to avoid Thursday nights. Not the players for whom it is just another game to get through. That really ought to be a major part of team selection this Sunday along with these points being spelled out as to why we need to go for it.

Beat Southampton and we can afford a draw with Arsenal and quite probably get third. Draw and we are still in control over United (just care of our goal difference) even if they beat Leicester.

Lose and we may well be relying on help elsewhere and would all but certainly have to beat Arsenal - potentially after extra time and penalties and a flight from Madrid in the middle of the night.

We simply have to look ahead like this and not just gamble all for glory on Wednesday night.

Southampton is a game we could badly do with winning but in any case is very possibly one we simply cannot afford to lose.

We have to approach it that way.

Things go well - we win, Arsenal and United drop points - and we might even have the luxury of resting a few against Arsenal.

For Sunday for Pelle's future possibly he might think we do have to play a weakened team but for the good of the club we simply must not.
Click to expand...

For me we can gamble on Sunday, as it's still in our own hands win, lose or draw.

Southampton is before Madrid. There are no second chances in Madrid.

Lose to Southampton, we can still beat Arsenal & Swansea and guarantee 4th minimum.

Goal difference would be unlikely. If we lose 2-0 at Southampton and beat Arsenal and Seansea 1-0. They would need 9 minimum in two games. That's a lot to ask under pressure.

Obviously a win at Southampton would be ideal though.
 
As much as a rest is great, it doesn't always lead to a great performance. Sometimes the win and confidence is much more important.

If the rags lose and we beat the saints we'll be near enough there for the top 4 and can go all out in Madrid. The confidence can lead to an extra bit of energy.

I'd still rotate - Kompany I'd stick on the bench. Change both full backs. Delph and Yaya to come in. Nasri if fit. Sterling needs game time and I'd bring Nacho on from the start. Would play Aguero and De Bruyne for 60 mins and potentially swap them then for Bony and Navas or something like that.

We'll see. Take every game as it comes. I think we'll need a lot of energy on Wednesday though, but I thought we looked tired late on in the game because we were lacking confidence to get a foothold in the game and go toe to toe with Real. I think we'll commit a few more further forward in Madrid in pursuit of the away goal and we'll be a lot better with the ball if we do that.
 
vs Southampton

Hart
Zabaleta Otamendi Mangala Kolarov
Navas Fernando Delph Sterling
Aguero Iheanacho

vs Real Madrid

Hart
Sagna Kompany Mangala Clichy
Fernando Fernandinho
Navas De Bruyne Sterling
Aguero
 
I think we have to rotate players now in order to win both games not just keep players fit for Madrid. So in order to beat Southampton we need some fresh legs but we need the core of the team. Sterling in for Silva. Mangala in for Kompany. Sterling then stays in for Madrid and Kompany comes back in fit and fresh.

I would play Aguero on Sunday but he’d be coming off whatever on 70 Mins for Nacho. I’d bring Nasri on for KDB at about the same time and Yaya on off the bench as well. That keeps the team largely together but with big guns coming on which should not weaken the team too much. The key is to get this game won and then think about managing the squad for the second leg. Losing would just send out the wrong message.
 
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