Coronavirus (2021) thread

[roubaixtuesday]

I really don’t get this at all - are there any old people who can’t take the vaccine for a medical reason? Or are they just saying NO for some other reason?

Matt Hancock said a couple of weeks ago that the majority of people in hospital in Bolton were actually older people who have declined the vaccine and it got me annoyed. Why pile more pressure onto the NHS after the last 18 months that they’ve had to endure by refusing a quick, free jab that’s been confirmed to offer great protection - especially after the second dosage. It’s selfish and it’s stupid.

Yeah, I agree.

But whether they're selfish, stupid, deceived by nutjobs or whatever, they're still real and they'll still block up the hospitals if they're sick.

As I understand the modelling, there are actually more vaccinated people projected to be affected than unvaccinated (even if 90% effective, 10% of a lot of people is still a lot of people), so even vaccinated them all won't get us off a third wave. Vaccinating all the population will, though, because it'll stop that wave completely, so the vulnerable, whether vaccinated or not, will never get exposed.

All this is just theory with huge uncertainty - it might never happen. Important thing is to act (or at least not exacerbate by opening up further) if we can see it starting before the vax programme is complete.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The government should stop publishing case numbers IMO, what’s the point in it now?

It's a leading indicator - it gives the future direction on the things that do matter - so we can better judge what action to take now, rather than leaving it too late, as we did so many times before.

 

[splinter]

Latest vaccine figures 186,147 first dose 387,987 second. Jab jab jab and keep jabbing

 

[antspider]

Anyone else getting a little concerned..

I think there will be a few on here getting more than a little concerned when there isn’t so much to be concerned about !

 

[ancoats]

I think there will be a few on here getting more than a little concerned when there isn’t so much to be concerned about !

yep

its creeping up again and after the lunatic's in government getting battered by Dominic Cummings then it will only send concerned sign going up again that people like boris is running this country

i do believe a 3rd wave is happening and it was always going to happen even with the vaccine program which is wonderful and promising. but the spreading of covid-19 is what this government want and its a test and gamble they are taking with people lives

 

[Tonster]

Yeah, I agree.

But whether they're selfish, stupid, deceived by nutjobs or whatever, they're still real and they'll still block up the hospitals if they're sick.

As I understand the modelling, there are actually more vaccinated people projected to be affected than unvaccinated (even if 90% effective, 10% of a lot of people is still a lot of people), so even vaccinated them all won't get us off a third wave. Vaccinating all the population will, though, because it'll stop that wave completely, so the vulnerable, whether vaccinated or not, will never get exposed.

All this is just theory with huge uncertainty - it might never happen. Important thing is to act (or at least not exacerbate by opening up further) if we can see it starting before the vax programme is complete.

Question. Even if 90% effective? Maybe I misheard or misunderstood but I thought I read that it was nearer 100% effective against serious illness/hospitalisation and deaths?

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital quick update:


Patients down 20 on day - happily - to 745 - which is 12 down week to week. Though it has been lower a few days ago.

Ventilators also down by 2 to 115 - which is exactly the same as last Wednesday.

Admissions though are at 98 - highest in a while and well up week to week from 74. Good chance the number will top 100 tomorrow for first time in a week or two.

Also good news is that NW patients FALL by 8 to 166 - but that is still up by 15 on last Wednesday.

Ventilators also still going up as they have been for over a week now. At 23 - versus 19 last Monday. This is the worst regional performance. Most are down a little wk to wk.

Admissions in the NW have also been rising. Last 3 days they have been 14 - 22 and 31 today. Not a promising trend thoiugh low numbers.

 

[KennyG]

Probably will be shot down on here, but I have no intention of having a vaccine. Certainly not yet. Rumours of a third jab needed, where will it end?

In a few years from now, it will be if you had x vaccine you may be entitled to compensation…

I just don’t trust it, does anyone else have any reservations?

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Where is the evidence of cases and hospital numbers going on? Cases and deaths have been steady now for a month.

Cases now in excess of 3000 in a day, the fist time its been in excess of that for a long time. Hospital admissions also up.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

I just don’t trust it, does anyone else have any reservations?

No.

 

[Two Gun Bob]

Probably will be shot down on here, but I have no intention of having a vaccine. Certainly not yet. Rumours of a third jab needed, where will it end?

In a few years from now, it will be if you had x vaccine you may be entitled to compensation…

I just don’t trust it, does anyone else have any reservations?

 

[Marvin]

I'd stand by the above even if it doesn't "behave", whether that refers to immune escape, mortality changes or transmissibility changes.

Rationale:
1) COVID does not mutate rapidly by virus standards. Scientific opinion seems to anticipate at least considerable reduction in symptoms with current vaccines.
2) We can, and will, respond with modified vaccines to changes in the virus.
3) Neverending large scale societal restrictions are, even in worst case scenarios, not likely to be acceptable to populations. They aren't to me, at least.

Of course, if it mutates into the Black Death, all bets are off. But no-one expects that, and emergence of an entirely new virus is probably far more likely to result in that scenario than mutation of COVID.

It might not mutate as fast as other viruses but that's a bit of a moot point when there are a reported 500,000 infections a day, hence there are 20 VOC in the UK data. There are still risks even if the outlook is as good as it has been since this started.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Question. Even if 90% effective? Maybe I misheard or misunderstood but I thought I read that it was nearer 100% effective against serious illness/hospitalisation and deaths?

Here's the evidence on all aspects of efficacy from real world conditions (ie data gathered from public vaccinations, not clinical trials) from PHE.

You can see the numbers, with references for the studies.

Note the large uncertainty bounds.

 

[Tommy_Catons_Perm]

Probably will be shot down on here, but I have no intention of having a vaccine. Certainly not yet. Rumours of a third jab needed, where will it end?

In a few years from now, it will be if you had x vaccine you may be entitled to compensation…

I just don’t trust it, does anyone else have any reservations?

Don't you worry Kenny. There's plenty of folk braver than you that are willing to take the risk. Their sacrifice will save you.

 

[Marvin]

Probably will be shot down on here, but I have no intention of having a vaccine. Certainly not yet. Rumours of a third jab needed, where will it end?

In a few years from now, it will be if you had x vaccine you may be entitled to compensation…

I just don’t trust it, does anyone else have any reservations?

It will end when populations get vaccinated.

 

[Marvin]

Don't you worry Kenny. There's plenty of folk braver than you that are willing to take the risk. Their sacrifice will save you.

Not necessarily. Anyone who doesn't get vaccinated runs the risk of getting infected at some point.

 

[Bluemoonadam]

Probably will be shot down on here, but I have no intention of having a vaccine. Certainly not yet. Rumours of a third jab needed, where will it end?

In a few years from now, it will be if you had x vaccine you may be entitled to compensation…

I just don’t trust it, does anyone else have any reservations?

Me also, I'll wait until the trials are complete before considering it.

 

[Magicpole]

Probably will be shot down on here, but I have no intention of having a vaccine. Certainly not yet. Rumours of a third jab needed, where will it end?

In a few years from now, it will be if you had x vaccine you may be entitled to compensation…

I just don’t trust it, does anyone else have any reservations?

You do realise I hope, that it is in people not vaccinated that new variants evolve? Are you vaccinated against anything? If you have had all the jabs most people have, why are you so scared of this one? One of the consequences you and other Antivaxxers might face, is no one will want you anywhere near us. I am not being hysterical here, but you will prove to be a risk to the wider community and if vaccinated ID is introduced, you're fucked. The vaccine is safe, but you won't be to everyone else. That's just a medical fact and whilst no one can make you have it, the bottom line is, sanctions will be introduced eventually to make people who refuse, to not he alowed to enter places, fly anywhere.

My pals wife caught the virus, now has pulmonary scarring and I just read it's incurable and could kill her within three years if it's severe. Is that worth the risk when vaccines have saved billions of lives? You really should talk to a doctor. Anxiety over taking it is normal for some. But remember, you've been vaccinated and you're still here. This virus is going nowhere, new variants will develop in people like you all the time. The vaccines are effective so far in the new ones, that might not aways be the case and the more Petri Dish people there are walking about, the higher the chances one of them will kill you. Talk to a doctor and hopefully that will ease your fears.

 

[KennyG]

You do realise I hope, that it is in people not vaccinated that new variants evolve? Are you vaccinated against anything? If you have had all the jabs most people have, why are you so scared of this one? One of the consequences you and other Antivaxxers might face, is no one will want you anywhere near us. I am not being hysterical here, but you will prove to be a risk to the wider community and if vaccinated ID is introduced, you're fucked. The vaccine is safe, but you won't be to everyone else. That's just a medical fact and whilst no one can make you have it, the bottom line is, sanctions will be introduced eventually to make people who refuse, to not he alowed to enter places, fly anywhere.

My pals wife caught the virus, now has pulmonary scarring and I just read it's incurable and could kill her within three years if it's severe. Is that worth the risk when vaccines have saved billions of lives? You really should talk to a doctor. Anxiety over taking it is normal for some. But remember, you've been vaccinated and you're still here. This virus is going nowhere, new variants will develop in people like you all the time. The vaccines are effective so far in the new ones, that might not aways be the case and the more Petri Dish people there are walking about, the higher the chances one of them will kill you. Talk to a doctor and hopefully that will ease your fears.

Good post. I’ve not been vaccinated against anything, even TB I missed at school. I’m 43.

This vaccine is a new technology, that’s only been used to speed up a process. Vaccines aren’t brought out in the middle of pandemics as a rule.

Im taking vitamin D and doing the best I can, but I am apprehensive. I realise I may pay the consequence, whichever option I take.

 

[SWP's back]

Probably will be shot down on here, but I have no intention of having a vaccine. Certainly not yet. Rumours of a third jab needed, where will it end?

In a few years from now, it will be if you had x vaccine you may be entitled to compensation…

I just don’t trust it, does anyone else have any reservations?

You ever had the TB vaccination? How about tetanus? Ever been to tropical countries and received vaccination for yellow fever? What about the simple flu vaccination? How about measles? Mumps? Rubella?

You ever heard of many people dying of small pox these days?

Is it all vaccinations you have issues with or just these ones?

So no, I don’t have reservations. I do wish those that did and selfishly won’t get the jabs would try and educate themselves on the covid vaccines.