Coronavirus (2021) thread

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

But if we stick our fingers in our ears then the hospitals won't fill up?

'It could' isn't based on a hunch. It's based on scientific evidence by people extremely qualified to make such projections.

It ends when a sufficient quantity of people are immune through vaccination (preferably) or prior infection.

By immune I presume you mean able to resist the affect of pathogens? Isn’t that nearly everyone now? Either the vaccines (and innate T cells) work or they don’t and, assuming they do, that’s it, mission accomplished.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

By immune I presume you mean able to resist the affect of pathogens? Isn’t that nearly everyone now?

Depends. 9 billion people out of 10 billion people is both 'nearly everyone' and also a billion off. Numbers exaggerated of course, but same principle applies.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Talking of projections and context.

 

[BlueHammer85]

It’s one thing when you’re relaxing with a glass of Sancerre in the south of France watching the world go by on a sunny afternoon, a whole other thing when all you want is a pint of Guinness and a bag of crisps at the local after work on a Thursday.

few pubs when busy that getting served at a bar is a pain in the arse, 1 barmaid ignoring you and serving others - we’ve all been there.

I’ve found a few pubs with table service on the app and much prefer it, can see exactly how much you’re ordering and the price and don’t have to budge.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

View attachment 18103
Talking of projections and context.

So you don't want to listen to any projections or scientific data because if we do then it'll never be over. But if we listen to those made before so much detail was known about a relatively newly introduced variant then that's ok?

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

few pubs when busy that getting served at a bar is a pain in the arse, 1 barmaid ignoring you and serving others - we’ve all been there.

I’ve found a few pubs with table service on the app and much prefer it, can see exactly how much you’re ordering and the price and don’t have to budge.

Yeah I don’t mind using apps but when you just have to grab attention and hope for the best it’s a nightmare.

 

[crooky]

View attachment 18103
Talking of projections and context.

Where's the explanation of each scenario?

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Where's the explanation of each scenario?

I'm not entirely sure on the imperial one, but the recent one from Warwick is here.



PHE have it as 67% more transmissible in their latest data. I don't know how much of that figure is to do with surge testing and all the rest of it, but 50% seems to be the central figure quoted.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Where's the explanation of each scenario?

When the first PM announced lockdown easing, Imperial produced these projections for hospitalisations for SPI-M. At the minute we are running well below even the best-case scenario.
Clearly things could change - and they might change quickly. Positive tests are rising and the variant is spreading locally, but context matters.

 

[unicorn]

It seems madness to risk it, for the sake of a couple of months (hopefully) considering what we already have.

No, I'm not just rolling over to a 'new normal' and no, I'm not forgetting the industries that this would still have major detrimental impact on (Entertainment, events, travel etc) but things are *almost* normal the way they are now so it seems madness to risk undoing any of it. Others will disagree but I'd sooner stick it out with what we have right now for a couple more months, providing help is given to these sort of industries.

As long as those couple of months are useful in persuading the vulnerable and the younger groups to get vaccinated, which I assume they will be.

 

[unicorn]

Any restrictions would be down to the venue, rather than the government. Football, gigs, festivals, nightclubs, weddings/parties that involve dancing and getting up from your seat, meals at a table with more than 6 people, theatres and cinemas at full capacity. Like you, I’m not bothered about any of those apart from gigs and football, but others are. Especially my
late teens/early 20s kids!!

My 19 year old moved to Manchester 2 years ago for much the same reasons I travel up twice a month; gigs in small clubs, the best pubs in the world and City.

He still assume the Government is coming out with further restrictions on who can pack into gigs after the 21st (e.g. vaccination record and/or negative test). I've no idea. I just read the Proms are selling tickets for standing, no idea if that's purely speculative.

 

[BlueHammer85]

Yeah I don’t mind using apps but when you just have to grab attention and hope for the best it’s a nightmare.

yes. That’s worse than any option

 

[unicorn]

Oh and having to do table service in pubs is a stupid pain in the arse, I hope that doesn’t become a permanent thing.

Same here, I detest table service.

Not because I want to stand at the bar, I always sit, but I just want to get my own pint and carry it back. Table service only adds unnecessary contact as well as costs. Would have been quite useful trying to get a pint in Failsworth on 13 May 2012, mind.

 

[BlueHammer85]

Same here, I detest table service.

Not because I want to stand at the bar, I always sit, but I just want to get my own pint and carry it back. Table service only adds unnecessary contact as well as costs. Would have been quite useful trying to get a pint in Failsworth on 13 May 2012, mind.

Same for every restaurant when they bring your dinner to the table ?

 

[ayia napa blues]

Thats how I feel aswell.
Yes, missing out on gigs and football (seasons finished anyway)
and not planning a holiday abroad this year.

so from 21st , I’m not sure anything noticeably is going to change that much for me.

Although you might like it most the business wouldn't survive long term with the reduced capacity its as simple as that

 

[unicorn]

Same for every restaurant when they bring your dinner to the table ?

Pubs are very different to restaurants, one of the main purposes of a pub is social interaction with the other customers and regulars rather than just with your own group. It's what makes the English pub so revered by the many overseas visitors that we get.

 

[artfuldodger]

Pubs are very different to restaurants, one of the main purposes of a pub is social interaction with the other customers and regulars rather than just with your own group. It's what makes the English pub so revered by the many overseas visitors that we get.

Well said.

 

[artfuldodger]

My 19 year old moved to Manchester 2 years ago for much the same reasons I travel up twice a month; gigs in small clubs, the best pubs in the world and City.

He still assume the Government is coming out with further restrictions on who can pack into gigs after the 21st (e.g. vaccination record and/or negative test). I've no idea. I just read the Proms are selling tickets for standing, no idea if that's purely speculative.

Mine are ever hopeful. God knows how many festivals, gigs, parties they’ve booked between them. My sons 21st in September and it DOES matter. We’ve already lost my daughters 18th (first week of the March lockdown). Not to mention being unable to see my son in Madrid.

 

[splinter]

A few gigs and large events are now starting to cancel..doesn't look good

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

A few gigs and large events are now starting to cancel..doesn't look good

A number of reasons (I do this for a living):

- Nobody can get insurance to cover covid and committing to non refundable production costs then having to cancel would spell financial ruin
- international travel for artists is expensive and for American acts is generally only economically viable to travel across the Atlantic for UK+European shows. Quarantine and varying levels of lockdown are making summer and autumn planning hard at the moment.
- sales and marketing windows are now too tight to turn it all around

Nobody really has much/any inside knowledge, pulling large events in 2021 is purely a pragmatic business decision.

Smaller gigs are less risky and more agile so are far easier to manage in the time frames we’ve got.