Coronavirus (2021) thread

[drthingy]

Got a bit of a moral dilemma tonight.... i work as a psychotherapist and got an email tonight from the BACP - the regulator saying I can jump the queue and get a vaccine because I work with lots of vulnerable people. Will sleep on it... but not sure I want to jump the queue - I have no underlying health concerns so my instinct is to wait my turn... Any views?

Not jumping the queue it shouldn't have been put to you that way. There are a lot of people going to need your skills now and in the future. So get the jab.

 

[worsleyweb]

Sounds to me like she is repeating what has basically been said by the government during the week .

she is effectively a local councilor and represents 5 million people. Significantly less than live in the North West, Far too much to say for herself.

Aside from that just walked to Piccadilly from Ancoats - busier than i have seen it for months and a hint of spring in the air.

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital deaths

By region

81 Midlands. 48 East. 47 NE & Yorkshire. 44 South East. 42 North West, 38 London, 9 South West

6 each in Countess of Chester, St Helens and Pennine Acute most in NW.

Birmingham 11, Bedfordshire 11 and East Kent 10 the only trusts with double figures.

 

[Healdplace]

309 England hospital deaths by age

20 - 39 (6) 2.0%

40- 59 (26) 8.4%

60 - 79 (123) 39.8%

80 PLUS (154) 49.8%



Much the same pattern as we have been seeing. Now a week since we had over 50% for the over 80s.

Under 60s being above 10% getting more common too.

Not because more are dying but very likely as fewer percentage wise are being stopped from dying by the vaccine that will not yet be of any numbers in those age ranges. But is primarily in the over 80s just now hence its impact being most apparent there.

This will change as the age range of the vaccinated accelerates but as the vast percentage of the those dying is in the over 60s not clear how far this change can go.

The big drop in overall numbers is really the better guide to success from both lockdown and vaccine.

 

[twosips]

If we're at 300 now and deaths are based on a 2/3 week lag from cases, there is surely no way we're not gonna be getting sub 100 days soon enough right?

 

[Healdplace]

I see more reports today about the big fall in cases around the world.

As these seem to be in areas with different demographics, seasons, vaccination progress and so on what is happening here?

Hard not to wonder if maybe the virus is becoming less problematic via a combination of things.

Great news if true either way.

Also hard not to wonder if the mutations are not speeding up the point where we reach a virus that is liveable with by humanity. The end game really for both us and the virus as it creates a balance point that sees us stop trying to eradicate it and the virus needing to respond to ways it is being eradicated.

Maybe we get lucky and that is how this pans out.

 

[Healdplace]

If we're at 300 now and deaths are based on a 2/3 week lag from cases, there is surely no way we're not gonna be getting sub 100 days soon enough right?

You would hope so. But we have to balance that against the erosion of lockdown which is clearly waning - understandably - as more and more seem to rebel.

Cases are slowing in their fall and any stall will impact the fall in death figures.

Just depends on how much impact the vaccine does have on creating cases that are a problem (as in needing hospitalisation and or risking deaths).

As cases in of themselves are not that big a deal if these other measures fall via the vaccine roll out.

Both are right now and hospital data will change before deaths if this starts to reverse in any way.

Why I report it here every evening as it is the key set of numbers to watch at the moment.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales vaccination stats:

80.1% of all over 80s have been vaccinated.

91.9% of those aged 75 - 79 have been.

91.1% of those aged 70 - 74 have been.

In care homes the numbers are 85.1% of staff and 82.9% of residents.

 

[Healdplace]

Of the 309 England hospital deaths patients were aged between 21 and 101.

11 of them - aged between 42 and 96 - had no known prior underlying conditions.

 

[Invisible Man's Bandage]

422,576 first doses and 4497 second doses administered in England yesterday.

No sign of the pace slackening thankfully.

 

[Healdplace]

Northern Ireland data:

6 deaths - was 9 last wk.

342 cases - was 253 last wk

Positivity 15.4% - was 15.9% last wk

7 day total cases 2041 - down from 2047 yesterday - was 2377 last wk

49 care home outbreaks - down from 53 yesterday - was 80 last wk

Patients 418 - down from 434 yesterday - was 518 last wk

Ventilated 42 - down from 45 yesterday - was 53 last wk

 

[worsleyweb]

422,576 first doses and 4497 second doses administered in England yesterday.

No sign of the pace slackening thankfully.

Didn't Scotland say it would slow for a few weeks?

 

[Invisible Man's Bandage]

Didn't Scotland say it would slow for a few weeks?

Yes, but it appears to be Caledonian bollocks :)

 

[Healdplace]

So total deaths with England out of hospital to come is 386

3 wks v 2 wks v last wk v today:- 1029 v 724 v 578 v 386 Today

 

[Toney’s bookie]

You would hope so. But we have to balance that against the erosion of lockdown which is clearly waning - understandably - as more and more seem to rebel.

I was having a read a few days ago about how pandemics end. There would seem to be two ways out, either

1) Medical eg incidence and death rates plummet -or-
2) Social eg the fear of the disease wanes and people just want to get on with life

Almost every disease that has developed over history is still around, the plague was in the news a while ago no less. Smallpox seems to be the only disease that has been completely eradicated by vaccination and so it was always likely that the 'end' of the pandemic would come when people simply got fed up of it, probably due to deaths and ‘sense of danger’ disappearing rather than waiting for it to be eradicated. As spring is in the air and deaths are falling I think the government need to be very conscious that they don’t try and implement policies that everyone will just ignore as it will lose them any control And credibility they’ve regained thanks to vaccinations.

The medics don’t have to consider the economic and societal impact of their advice (and rightly so) - that is for the politicians to muse over but there will come a point when the medical advice may end up being seen by society as too cautious when weighed up against the other push and pull factors going on and that people are really getting to the end of their tether now. Despite the misgivings and narrative on here, I do think people have been very patient and have largely done what asked but if the 'reward' never materialises and there are always new hypotehtical reasons or 'just in case' to drag things out, then option 2) will come ever closer.

 

[Healdplace]

Cases 3 wks v 2 wks v last wk v Today - for the three nations other than England

2538 v 2105 v 1493 v 1317 Today

Still going down but the plateau is showing here clearly as it is in England.

Looks like we might struggle to suppress much below where we are now which is a concern for those wanting lockdown ending in 3 weeks as right now I doubt that would be the decision in any major way.

Depends I guess what target they do have in mind. I just doubt it will be as high as 12,000 or so which looks about where the plateau is forming in the UK.

The vaccine might yet do this but it is unclear if it stops transmission so will lower case numbers enough and 3 weeks might not be enough time to find out for sure.

I am pretty certain we will not rush this time into freedom.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Also hard not to wonder if the mutations are not speeding up the point where we reach a virus that is liveable with by humanity. The end game really for both us and the virus as it creates a balance point that sees us stop trying to eradicate it and the virus needing to respond to ways it is being eradicated.

I've seen speculation along these lines, but I don't think there's any real evidence for it. But it's not something I have any expertise in whatever.

Good article here on evolution of the virus. Kicker

There is no general evolutionary law for predicting how these relationships will pan out, and certainly no justification for evoking the inevitability of decreased virulence.

Will coronavirus really evolve to become less deadly?

The coronavirus is evolving, but which path it will take is far from certain.

theconversation.com

 

[Healdplace]

Just seen N Ireland extending lockdown to 1 April and they are doing pretty well by UK standards.

I suspect we will not go much beyond experimenting with school returns either before Easter.

 

[frothy]

Scotland update:

57 deaths - was 48 last week

685 cases - was 830 last week

3.8% positivity - was 4.0% last week

1261 in hospital - down 56 in day - was 1499 last week

95 ventilated - down 4 in day - was 107 last week


Deaths aside being up that is more good falls in patients and cases

Might seem a daft Question but does Ventilated mean actually being on a Ventilator, or does it include other ways of helping people breath that are not as intrusive as being Ventilated?

 

[Rammy Blue]

Just seen N Ireland extending lockdown to 1 April and they are doing pretty well by UK standards.

I suspect we will not go much beyond experimenting with school returns either before Easter.

Always said it’d be Easter before we open things up properly, it’s what makes the most sense.